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New York (CNN) --
California's severe drought threatens to significantly undermine the state's ability to generate hydroelectric power, raising costs for families and increasing planet-warming emissions, according to a federal government forecast.
Assuming drought conditions persist, California's hydroelectric generation would be 48% less this summer than under normal hydro conditions, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in a statement. a blog post this Wednesday.
The EIA noted that, as of April 1, California's snow cover was 40% below the mean value from 1991 to 2020. This is significant because it means less snow will melt this spring and there will be less flow into the state reservoirs.
California's two largest reservoirs are already at "critically low levels" and the dry season is just beginning
Under the EIA's projected drought scenario, which is part of the agency's Short-Term Energy Outlook released last month, hydropower would account for just 8% of California's total electricity generation.
This figure is less than 15% in normal water conditions.
"This deficit would have to be compensated with other sources of electrical energy supply," states the EIA.
If the drought persists, which is expected according to NOAA's summer forecasts, California will have to import more electricity from other markets and use more of the state's natural gas-fired power generation, the EIA said.
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This will translate into higher prices and more planet-warming carbon emissions.
The EIA estimates that, in a drought scenario, wholesale energy prices in the western US electric markets will be 5% higher and carbon dioxide emissions in California will be 6% higher. higher than under normal conditions.
All this means that the drought, caused by the climate crisis, threatens to aggravate both the climate crisis and the inflation crisis, increasing the costs for families.
Drought conditions are exacerbating a broader supply and demand problem on the US power grid.
As CNN's Rene Marsh reported Tuesday, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) says there has been a 2% loss of reliable hydroelectric power produced at dams.
Energy experts warn about the US power grid: "It is not designed to withstand the impacts of climate change"
NERC warns that several parts of the US are at risk of energy emergencies this summer, including Texas.
Energy experts have told CNN that some power grid operators are not factoring climate change into their planning, making the grid more vulnerable.
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