Omicron subvariant BA.5 is spreading in Portugal - is there a risk of a summer wave in Germany?
Created: 2022-06-02 04:46
By: Martina Lippl
Is there a risk of a new corona wave with the omicron subvariant BA.5?
BA.5 is spreading rapidly in Portugal.
What's in store for Germany?
Munich – As soon as the Omikron wave in Germany died down, worrying news spread: The new Corona variant
Omikron BA.5
is on the rise in Europe.
In Germany, BA.5 has so far played a subordinate role.
But for how much longer?
Coronavirus variant: The Omicron BA.5 subtype is causing the number of infections in Portugal to explode
A look at Portugal is enough.
Despite a high vaccination rate (87 percent), the number of infections there is exploding – and the trend is rising.
The omicron subvariant BA.5 is already dominant in the popular holiday destination.
According to the National Health Institute INSA, 87 percent of all registered new infections are now attributable to this variant (as of May 30).
The number of hospitalized patients and mortality related to Covid-19 showed an increasing trend, according to the latest INSA weekly report.
The BA.5 line showed greater transmission capacity.
Additional mutations could be responsible that facilitate entry into human cells and/or trick the body's immune system (so-called immune escape advantage).
So, also the immune system,
Why is Omikron BA.5 spreading so rapidly?
The omicron subvariants BA.5 and BA.4 are relatively new.
After their appearance in South Africa, the experts reacted rather calmly.
Hospitalizations there remained at lower levels at the end of April 2022.
Experts emphasized that the situation in South Africa cannot be transferred one-to-one to Germany.
The Berlin virologist Christian Drosten classified the new corona virus variant briefly and concisely on Twitter.
“Omikron BA.5 is a separate Omikron variant.
In addition to the omicron, the variant has a mutation on the spike protein," emphasized the corona expert.
This is the so-called mutation L452R, which can already be found in the Delta variant.
In the omicron subvariants BA.5 and BA.4, this mutation (L452R) is present in the spike protein.
Drosten classified the natural protection against the omicron variant by the immune system as low.
He referred to animal experiments with hamsters, in which a mutation (L452R) showed an increased risk of infection (virulence).
The corona expert also considered it likely that the immune response to ward off the virus would be bypassed.
Omicron subvariant BA.5
Omicron subvariants BA.5 and BA.4 have been classified by the WHO as "variant of concern" (VOCs).
Characteristics: L452R mutation in the spike protein (already detected in Delta).
Proven for the first time: South Africa
In Germany, the RKI gives the share of BA.5 at 2.5 percent (status: weekly report of May 23)
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Omikron BA.5: How is the situation in Germany?
According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the proportion of the omicron subvariant BA.5 is still at a low level in Germany.
However, according to the latest RKI weekly report (May 23), the proportion of BA.5 continued to increase and doubled from 1.2 to 2.5 percent.
"The currently increasing trend in the Omicron lines BA.4 and BA.5, especially in South Africa and recently also in Portugal, is accompanied by an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases and the positive rate," says the RKI report.
"Both lineages were also increasingly found in Germany (mainly BA.5) and other European countries."
Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach warns of the new Omikron variants via Twitter.
“The particularly contagious BA4/BA5 variant is also on the rise here.
This could be the next wave in the fall," wrote the SPD politician on Twitter.
Lauterbach shared a tweet in which a laboratory informed about the proportion of the different omicron variants in those who tested positive.
The overview refers to those tested "in the southern German catchment area in week 18 - week 21." The proportion of the Omicron variant BA.4 and BA.5 is therefore 15.3 percent.
Does Omicron subline BA.5 cause an increase in the number of infections in Germany?
Virologist Martin Stürmer does not assume so.
Because many people in Germany have already been infected with the similar BA.2 type, they could be protected from BA.5, said the expert ntv.
Incidentally, one of the differences between Germany and South Africa, as virologist Christian Drosten writes on Twitter: "The variant probably has an immune escape advantage in a population in which there was (like in South Africa) no BA.2 wave."
Is a BA.5 summer wave rolling in Germany?
Is a lockdown imminent?
In South Africa, the peak of the omicron wave was survived with BA.4 and BA.5 in mid-May.
"The wave of infections in South Africa has peaked with low hospital admissions and deaths so far," tweeted Tulio de Oliveira, a bioinformatician from South Africa.
And he also points to a new "hotspot" in Europe: "Rapid increase in infections in Portugal with older and highly vaccinated population."
In both countries, South Africa and Portugal, there was a large Omicron BA.1 wave that ended about three months ago, continues de Oliveira.
"The BA.1 wave was followed by the BA.2 wave, but not with such an increase in the number of infections." It is interesting to see that countries with a large BA.2 wave, the BA.4 and the BA .5 appear to be increasing slowly, as in the UK.
Incidentally, there was no lockdown in view of the omicron wave in South Africa.
There are hardly any corona restrictions in Portugal.
Masks are only compulsory in public transport, nursing homes and hospitals.
In view of the increasing number of infections, the health authorities advise voluntarily wearing a mouth and nose protector in places where there is an increased risk of infection.
Weltärzte boss Frank Ulrich Montgomery warns with a view to Portugal against the spread of the omicron subvariant BA.5 in Germany.
“The BA.5 variant of the virus will also spread to us.
Many, including those who have been vaccinated, will become ill.
Good to know: those who have been vaccinated have a much milder disease.
His risk of dying is 99 percent lower than that of unvaccinated people," Montgomery told the
Rheinische Post
.
He called for clear and uniform corona rules and good preparation for the upcoming autumn and winter.
The data from South Africa is encouraging, but Germany can hardly be compared to South Africa.
Tulio de Oliveria estimates the immunity of the population through infection and vaccination to be around 90 percent.
In Portugal, too, he assumes a very high level of immunity in the adult population.
In addition, Portugal would call on the over 80s for the fourth corona vaccination - for the booster update.
In Germany, on the other hand, around 18.6 million people are unvaccinated (22.4 percent).
The vaccination rate is 75.9 percent.
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