Since becoming president, Vladimir Putin has cultivated an image of a virile man.
The Kremlin has carefully built a character: Putin shirtless on a horse, Putin lifting iron, Putin with a Kalashnikov in his hands...
But this desire for omnipotence has been undermined for several weeks by tenacious rumours, coming in particular from certain American observers and media who, failing to obtain the Russian president's medical report, dissect his slightest gestures to decipher his health.
This Thursday, it was the American newspaper Newsweek which revived speculation: without further details, it claims that the 69-year-old head of state was treated in April for advanced cancer and that he escaped an attempt assassination in March.
The article is based on the testimony of three US intelligence officials who allegedly read a confidential report.
“Putin's hold is strong but no longer absolute.
(..) The power games in the Kremlin have never been so intense, because everyone feels that the end is near,” they say.
Read alsoThe health of Vladimir Putin, a very well-kept secret in Russia
Paradoxically, the isolation of Vladimir Putin reinforces the rumours, while making them almost impossible to verify.
So some US intelligence analysts have been trained in remote diagnosis, others in psychiatry, says Newsweek.
In April, for example, they saw the president's unusual posture as further proof of his declining health.
Putin was not looking at all well today.
People have particularly noted his hunched position and the fact he never let go of the table during the entire 12-minute meeting with Shoigu.
(Source: @SvobodaRadio.) pic.twitter.com/cjPyNh0l9F
— Timothy Phillips (@TSJPhillips) April 21, 2022
Is it reliable?
“We can make diagnoses by screen, but it is very delicate, insists the geopolitical scientist Patrick Martin-Genier, who remains on the reserve.
You have to be a doctor, and not all doctors would agree with each other.
A posture doesn't mean anything, it's all hypothetical.
And even if he has cancer, he remains in a position to govern and can work to the end, like Pompidou.
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Plausible information, but not proven
A few days after the Russian parade on May 9, the head of the Ukrainian intelligence services, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, had even declared to the British media Sky News that Vladimir Putin was in "a very bad psychological and physical state and that he was very ill,” adding that shenanigans were brewing inside the Kremlin to overthrow him.
A final statement also unverifiable, but already more credible.
“He did not obtain a victory on May 9, his power is weakened by this war which he thought he would conclude in a few days, observes Patrick Martin-Genier.
It is likely to cause difficulties within the political system.
Are the oligarchs, severely sanctioned, letting go?
The question is valid.
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Read alsoThe health of heads of state, a diplomatic issue: “It can affect the global balance”
The Newsweek newspaper's sources work for three separate US intelligence services: an official from the National Intelligence Directorate (DNI), a member of Pentagon intelligence, and a former Air Force officer.
The United States has 17 in total, recalls on LCI François Heisbourg, special adviser to the Foundation for Strategic Research.
“Putin's state of health has become a chestnut tree, everyone can talk about it without having a credible grouping of sources.
Is the information plausible?
Yes.
Do I take it for granted?
Absolutely not.
The same goes for the attack (the attempted assassination and coup) against Putin.
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Asked by Newsweek, the DNI agent recognizes it himself, speaking of an “iceberg shrouded in fog”.
In reality, the American intelligence services have "limited visibility" on what is happening in Moscow, repeats the American security adviser Jake Sullivan, in a press conference.
Even CIA Director William Burns warned Congress: “Be careful, because we have little information on the balance within the Russian nomenklatura.
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These repeated speculations seem in any case to become a problem for Moscow, to the point that one even wonders if this is not their objective.
In any case, they pushed, during an interview granted to TF1, the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to deny: "I do not believe that someone with all his head can see in this person (Putin) signs of any illness or disease.
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