Russian offensive focuses on Donbass
In three months of war, the Ukrainian army has defied all predictions.
The various errors committed by the Russian forces allowed the failure of the offensives against kyiv and Kharkiv.
In Irpin, a key town on the outskirts of the Ukrainian capital, life is gradually resuming amidst the ruins.
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The Russian offensive is now tightening on the Donbass, around Sieveridonetsk and Lyssytchansk, where a third of the Russian military effort is concentrated.
What is at stake is symbolic as well as tactical.
If he seizes the administrative district of Donbass, Vladimir Putin will be able to claim a second success after taking Mariupol.
This battle imposed the artillery as a key new weapon.
In the Donbass, the mass is
a priori
on the Russian side, which also raises the threat of a recourse to nuclear weapons.
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The prospect of a Russian oil embargo
Closure of air links, departure of major brands or stoppage of supplies for certain products.
The economic restrictions imposed by the West from the start of the conflict have disrupted the Russian economy and the daily lives of its inhabitants.
Following an exceptional meeting on May 30, the European Council presented its sixth package of restrictions against Russia.
Its central measure: an embargo on Russian oil which should apply by 2023. About 90% of Russian oil exports will be stopped by the end of the year.
But this exceptional measure, made possible by the lifting of the Hungarian veto, is not without consequences: the price of black gold has exploded.
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The United States on a crest line, weakened Europe
Across the Atlantic, Joe Biden opted for the rhetoric and methods of Franklin Roosevelt.
The Democrat first scored a big blow by asking senators and representatives to vote in aid of 33 billion dollars to help Ukraine repel the Russian invasion.
Anxious to help Ukraine without risking co-belligerence, he also promised missiles to the Ukrainian army, specifying that these weapons could not touch Russia.
On the European side, the Union has been hampered in its sanction dynamics by the reluctance of several countries dependent on Russia, such as Hungary.
Divergent interests which led Emmanuel Macron to propose a revision of the unanimous voting rule.
The disagreements do not only affect Hungary: Germany has also been accused by Poland of not honoring its promises by delaying the delivery of tanks to Ukraine.
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millions of refugees
In mid-May, the High Commission for Refugees shared this figure: more than 6 million Ukrainians have fled their country since the start of the Russian invasion.
Poland is the country hosting the largest number (about 3,270,000 as of May 12), followed by Romania (896,000) and Hungary (583,000).
The UN estimates that a total of some 8.3 million people could flee the country this year.
Thousands of residents of Mariupol and southern Ukraine have also joined Georgia, after the almost obligatory passage of a “
filtration camp
”.
Others had to take refuge in Russia in “
temporary accommodation points
”.
If women and children represent 90% of these refugees, some who remained on the spot are also actively involved in the war.
Deputies, war doctors or anonymous, this fight is also theirs.
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