France has experienced the third driest spring since the beginning of the 20th century and the dryness of the soil corresponds to that usually noted in mid-July, worried Friday, June 3, Météo-France, which is also counting on a hot and dry summer.
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“
The situation is worrying and closely monitored
,” commented Jean-Michel Soubeyroux, from Météo-France, during a press briefing, while farmers already fear for their crops.
Spring (March-April-May) 2022 recorded a rainfall deficit of 45% compared to normal, ranking it the third driest spring behind 2011 and 1976, the historic drought years.
It also ranked as the third warmest spring.
“Almost the entire territory” affected
This situation is linked in particular to an unprecedented month of May: the driest ever recorded (65% rainfall deficit on average, with total rainfall of less than 20 mm over a large part of the territory) and the hottest (temperature average of 17.8°C, one degree higher than the previous record of May 2011), according to the report presented on Friday.
As a result, "
the early drought of the surface soils worsened sharply during the month
", explained Jean-Michel Soubeyroux.
“
Almost the whole territory is affected by a drought of the soil at least ten-year level for the season, that is to say that we meet one year out of ten
”, he specified.
On the scale of France, the soil moisture index thus reached on 1 June a value usually encountered in mid-July.
And the situation could get worse.
In a context of global warming which accentuates the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts, Météo-France is thus counting on a hot and dry summer (June-July-August).
According to the seasonal trends for summer presented on Friday, which differ from the weather forecast, a warm scenario is "
very likely
" over the southern half of the country and "
likely
" over the northern half.
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A dry scenario is also "
probable
" on the southern half, but no scenario is favored on the northern half.
Asked about the hypothesis of a historic drought like that of 1976, Jean-Michel Soubeyroux noted that the month of June would be crucial.
“
The drought of 1976 had developed a lot during the month of June.
What happens in June is going to be essential, especially regarding the impacts on agriculture
,” he added, hoping that the storms forecast for this weekend will bring precipitation that is not too intense, which could improve the situation. .