By Jonathan
Allen
WASHINGTON — Former President Donald Trump is bored at Mar-a-Lago and eager to return to the political arena — as a candidate, not a kingmaker — according to his advisers, who are divided on whether he should launch a third presidential bid now. this summer.
While many Trump confidants believe he should wait until after November's midterm elections -- warning that he has yet to make a final decision on his candidacy -- some say he could move more quickly to tap into endorsements and deny the fuel to the bus full of Republican Party (GOP) hopefuls in his rearview mirror.
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“I have made my case as to why I think I should do it,” said longtime Trump adviser Jason Miller, who traveled with the former president to a rally in Wyoming over Memorial Day weekend.
“I think the fact that there is clarity on what your intentions are [is important] so that you can start building that operation while it's still fresh in people's minds and they're still active — a lot of that can be turned into action. of 2024," he opined.
A second adviser, who believes Trump should pause until the more traditional post-election period, said the notoriously impulsive former president is nonetheless likely to launch "sooner rather than later."
Both said Trump has canvassed a lot of opinions.
One question is "can you suppress your enthusiasm for a rematch in 2024 and not, say, go ahead and put that statement out and wait for a big event, a big speech to do it," the second adviser noted.
"A person who bets says that he is doing it, and he also wants to displace the rest of the opponents."
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Two people in Trump's orbit told our sister network NBC News that they had been informally asked to keep July 4 as the date for a possible announcement, but Miller - noting that Trump has not yet decided to run - said "it's not true” that this day has been reserved, even unofficially, for an announcement.
Without specifically addressing the timing issue, Trump spokesman Taylor Budowich said in a text exchange with NBC News that he sees a growing public appetite for a Trump comeback.
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“The United States was strong, prosperous and highly respected under Trump, and because of that it remains unprecedentedly strong thanks to his record of support and the demand for his leadership has never been greater,” Budowich said.
Trump's decision, and its timing, promise to define the ground for Republican efforts to unseat President Joe Biden in 2024, and there is reason to feel a heightened urgency in recent weeks.
Although his shadow over his party is longer than that of any other former president in modern times, the steps of the Republican candidates for 2024 are getting stronger.
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Several of them have visited early primary states, endorsed candidates in midterms, or delivered high-profile speeches designed to elevate their position in the party.
That group includes Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and Senators Tom Cotton, R-Arkansas, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
Also Tom Cotton, R-Arkansas, Josh Hawley, R-Missouri, and Ted Cruz, R-Texas.
In addition, a dynamic is emerging in which their favorites in multi-candidate races often fail -- win or lose -- to finish with as much as a third of the vote.
Some Republican operatives see this as a sign that his influence with the GOP electorate has waned, let alone his standing with a broader public that ousted him from office less than two years ago.
More importantly, Trump is frustrated by the weariness of participating mostly through endorsements for candidates he barely knows, especially when -- as has happened in several high-profile recent primaries -- they lose.
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But as much as Trump is tempted by President Joe Biden's struggles in office — and his own impatience — there is every reason to hope, according to Trump allies and Republican strategists.
Former President Donald Trump speaks on May 28, 2022, in Casper, Wyoming. Chet Strange/Getty Images
If Trump announces his candidacy, his campaign committee will be subject to fundraising limits and a technical prohibition on coordinating with his Save America PAC.
It would also undoubtedly focus the public's attention on Republicans running in the midterm elections, which could hurt the party's candidates in swing states and districts.
And it could inadvertently help Biden by giving the president a point of contrast.
"The clearest and cleanest path is to have a rematch," said the second adviser.
“If he gets that rematch too early, it might actually help Biden a little bit.
Trump in modest doses has been good for Trump,” he recalled.
There is precedent for a president who was and possibly will be, and for the prospect of a Trump-Biden rematch.
In 1892, former President Grover Cleveland defeated President Benjamin Harrison, who had unseated Cleveland in 1888.
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That was one of six times in US history that a candidate tried to unseat the incumbent president who had defeated him four years earlier, not counting the elections George Washington won before the parties were organized.
The first was in 1800, when Thomas Jefferson avenged his defeat at the hands of President John Adams.
Most recent: Dwight Eisenhower's back-to-back victories over Democrat Adlai Stevenson II in 1952 and 1956.
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In four of the six contests, the challenger won.
In recent months, Trump has teased audiences at his rallies by suggesting that he will, in fact, run in 2024.
“The truth is, I ran twice, won twice, and did much better the second time,” Trump said at a March rally in Georgia, repeating the lie that he was victorious in 2020. “And now we may have to do it again," he added.
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At the moment, he is asking for and receiving advice, both on whether to appear and, if so, when to announce it.
“He always seeks advice from the most unlikely places and from a very wide group of voices,” said Miller, who declined to go into the details of his own conversations with Trump on the matter.
"I'm really looking forward to it performing again in 2024," he said.
