Unédic confirmed on Wednesday its return to the green after the Covid crisis, with a surplus forecast at 2.5 billion euros this year, which will allow the unemployment insurance scheme to begin repaying its huge debt.
This surplus was revised slightly upwards compared to the previous forecasts for February (+2.2 billion).
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The decrease in the number of job seekers and the new unemployment insurance rules applied since the end of 2021 "
would help to reduce compensation expenditure
" which would drop from 49.4 to 40 billion, according to the press release from the joint body which presented its financial forecasts for 2024. As for revenues, they would increase to reach 42.5 billion, mainly due to the dynamics of wages linked to inflation.
Debt cancellation
This stabilization of expenditure and this increase in revenue would continue in the following years, allowing a surplus of 3.1 billion in 2023 and 4.2 in 2024. Over these three years 2022-2024, “
two thirds of the surpluses result from the implementation of the unemployment insurance reform
", emphasizes Unédic.
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Consequently, the debt, after a peak of 63.6 billion in 2021, including 18.7 due to the emergency measures taken during the Covid (such as partial activity), should be reduced to 61.1 billion in 2022, then 58 in 2023 and 53.7 in 2024.
Job creations, after an “
exceptional
” number in 2021 (+678,000), should continue in 2022 “
at a lower level
” (+79,000), despite a dynamic first quarter.
In 2023 and 2024, “
the growth rate would return to a level close to pre-crisis levels (1.7% and 1.8% respectively) and job creation would be more limited (+52,000 and +80,000 respectively)
” , adds Unédic.
This development “
is conditioned by the economic and geopolitical context
”, however warns the organization.