France election: Macron party wobbles - expert with meaningful prognosis

Created: 06/10/2022, 09:48 am

By: Max Schaefer

France elects a new parliament.

Macron's party goes into the general election with a lead, but the gap is narrowing.

All developments in the news ticker.

• In the parliamentary elections in France, the French elect the members of the National Assembly.

• Emmanuel Macron's party is the favorite in the election, but the lead over the left-wing alliance NUPES is dwindling.

• An expert considers the result of the French election to be open.

Paris – In the parliamentary elections in France, the French will vote on who will represent them in the National Assembly in the future.

At the same time, the election is also a vote on Emmanuel Macron, who has just been re-elected.

As president, he holds the most important political office with a range of powers, but legislation is a matter for parliament.

The Prime Minister, who is the head of the government and determines the politics of the Grande Nation, is also appointed from the majority of these.

France election: Macron allies under pressure ahead of parliamentary elections

In order for Macron to push through his planned reforms, including pensions, his alliance “Ensemble!” must win a majority in parliament in the parliamentary elections.

However, the planned pension reform has been sharply criticized.

The government installed by Macron after the presidential election has also made mainly negative headlines since then.

Two women made allegations of rape against Solidarity Minister Damien Abad.

Although he rejects her, he is still threatened with an investigation.

Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin has also been criticized for the chaos at the Champions League final in Paris.

France election: Macron party's lead is shrinking

Accordingly weakened, Macron, his party La République en Marche and their alliance “Ensemble!” are going into the parliamentary elections.

According to a survey by the BVA Institute, just 35 percent of people in France would like Macron's party to get a majority.

After failing to become president, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (l.) wants to take over the government in the parliamentary elections in France and limit Macron's influence.

(Archive image) © Joel Saget/AFP

And Macron supporters also have to fight in polls on voting intentions before the French election.

According to a recent survey by the opinion research institute Ifop, "Ensemble!" is one percentage point behind the left-wing alliance NUPES led by left-wing radical Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

According to forecasts on the distribution of seats after the parliamentary elections, "Ensemble!" will retain the majority in the National Assembly - the first-past-the-post system helps the Liberals - but the lead is shrinking here too.

also read

Turkey lays claim to Greek islands: Erdogan's foreign minister is now following suit

High spirits in the Kremlin, mutiny in the army?

– Insiders report plan for second Kyiv storm

Parliamentary elections in France: Mélenchon wants to become head of government with the help of the left-wing alliance NUPES

A lot can change before the decision of the parliamentary elections in France on June 19, the day of the runoff elections in the constituencies.

In view of the first-past-the-post system, pollster Brice Teinturier also warns: "One or two percentage points more or less can mean that 40 to 50 seats change sides," he told the France Inter broadcaster.

The foreseeable low turnout of 44 to 48 percent can also have a major impact on the outcome of the French election.

That's what Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who as a candidate in the 2022 presidential election in France just barely missed making it into the run-off, is hoping for.

Shortly thereafter, however, he brought himself into play as prime minister.

Mélenchon can already claim one success for himself: he has united the traditionally divided left in France, from social democrats to Greens to communists, in the "New Ecological and Social People's Union" (NUPES).

France election: Opposition goes into parliamentary elections stronger

NUPES wants to use the criticism of Macron's planned increase in the retirement age from 62 to 65 and the general concerns of many French people about inflation to win the parliamentary majority in the French elections.

Then Macron would have to appoint a left-wing prime minister.

But even if NUPES does not have a majority in the National Assembly after the French elections, as current polls suggest, the left-wing alliance forms a strong opposition.

Marine Le Pen and her Rassemblement National will definitely find themselves in that role.

For the first time since 1986, right-wing extremists will be represented in parliamentary groups in the National Assembly after the parliamentary elections.

When will the general elections in France be decided?

The first meaningful forecasts and projections for the French election will be available after the first ballot on Sunday (June 12).

Because candidates must receive an absolute majority of the votes in the first ballot and their votes must be at least 25 percent of registered voters to be elected, the decision will not come until June 19 in most constituencies.

(ms/AFP)