Will one of the favorite condiments of the French be permanently missing from supermarket shelves?
The question arises as the mustard sector is heading towards a particularly significant and historic period of shortage.
A deficit which naturally leads to an increase in prices.
According to an April 2022 IRI study devoted to the inflation rates of various everyday consumer products, the price of mustard would have increased, on average, by 9.26% in April.
However, this delicate situation is likely to last.
Explanations.
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The ton of Canadian mustard seed at more than 2000 dollars
Shortages have already been a reality for several weeks on supermarket shelves.
“
Our stocks are actually going very quickly
,” concedes Damien, the manager of a small supermarket in the 10th arrondissement.
“
The hundred jars of mustard that we receive at the start of the day are often sold out by 1:00 p.m.
From my point of view, we have the impression that there is a will, on the part of customers, to stock up on everything that is happening,
” he concludes.
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The first factor - and not the least - which explains this situation is undoubtedly the severe droughts that Canada experienced in 2021. According to the FAO, Canadian mustard seed production is the third largest in the world, with 98,800 tonnes, behind Nepal (214,055 tonnes) and Russia (103,033 tonnes).
The North American giant also represents 70% of French imports of mustard seeds according to the Ministry of Agriculture.
Thus, if the country experiences a drop in production, French mustards are mechanically impacted.
During the summer of 2021, Canada was hit by a particularly strong heat wave and drought.
These extreme weather conditions penalized mustard seed growers who saw their harvests drop by 99.
000 tonnes in 2020-2021 to 50,000 in 2021-2022, according to projections by the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture.
An unprecedented crisis that pushed up the price of seeds from $885 per ton to $2,290/t.
Sharply rising prices which can also be explained structurally: the area of Canadian agricultural land devoted to mustard seeds has increased from 345,000 hectares in 2003 to 71,000 in 2021, according to a study by the Canadian Grain Commission.
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If the ministry foresees a resumption of production during 2022, the difficulties encountered in Canada have a direct impact on the French sector, especially as other clouds are gathering on the world mustard seed market.
Indeed, the war in Ukraine has drastically reduced, even stopped, the harvest in Ukraine and Russia which are, respectively, the 3rd and 8th world producers of mustard seeds;
two countries that could then have made it possible to largely compensate for Canadian losses.
In the short term, the stalemate in the Ukrainian conflict and in the medium/long term, the acceleration of extreme climatic phenomena - particularly in Canada where temperatures are expected to rise twice as fast as in the rest of the world according to the Ministry of '
Environment - should profoundly destabilize seed cultivation.
The empty mustard shelves of supermarkets are therefore set to last.
.
The challenge of a French mustard seed industry
The situation pleads in favor of a French culture of mustard seeds.
These sparse shelves and these drastic price increases are, in fact, particularly worrying for a country like France where the “
mustard
” sector plays an important economic and social role.
According to a study by the Ministry of Agriculture, France is the first "
mustard power
» in Europe, providing 50% of the continent's production.
From a local point of view, mustard also plays a structuring role in certain local economic ecosystems.
The Bourgogne-Franche-Comté region thus produces 80% of all French mustard with 2.6% of agricultural jobs in the region.
However, despite its European stature, Burgundy continues to massively export Canadian seed, which is much more competitive and affordable than the French.
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It therefore remains to accentuate the efforts made since the 1990s in favor of the development of a specifically French mustard seed sector.
Although the regional agricultural area dedicated to them increased from 600 to 5700 hectares between 2000 and 2015, the needs are still too great to guarantee a 100% "made in France" mustard.
According to the Côte-d'Or Chamber of Agriculture, Burgundy should therefore devote 15,000 hectares of its land to this crop to meet the demand for 25,000 tonnes of seeds needed by the regional mustard industry.
