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Ukraine war and corona chaos: How firmly is Xi Jinping really in the saddle?

2022-06-11T04:21:57.989Z


Ukraine war and corona chaos: How firmly is Xi Jinping really in the saddle? Created: 06/11/2022, 06:03 By: Sven Hauberg Behind Xi Jinping (left), China's Premier Li Keqiang (right) is scratching the authority of the head of state and party. © Li Xueren/Xinhua/Imago Xi Jinping wants to be re-elected as head of state. But the corona chaos in China and the Ukraine war are causing resentment - ev


Ukraine war and corona chaos: How firmly is Xi Jinping really in the saddle?

Created: 06/11/2022, 06:03

By: Sven Hauberg

Behind Xi Jinping (left), China's Premier Li Keqiang (right) is scratching the authority of the head of state and party.

© Li Xueren/Xinhua/Imago

Xi Jinping wants to be re-elected as head of state.

But the corona chaos in China and the Ukraine war are causing resentment - even in their own ranks.

Munich/Beijing – Things are not going well for Xi Jinping.

China's head of state and party leader announced that he would seal off entire cities with a population of more than one million in the event of any corona outbreak, no matter how small, and if necessary use barriers to prevent the population from leaving their homes.

But at least since the arrival of the highly contagious omicron variant in the People's Republic, the so-called zero-Covid strategy no longer works.

But Xi doesn't dispute that.

The World Health Organization may consider zero-Covid to be a mistake - it doesn't matter.

Then Shanghai is locked down for two months, global supply chains collapse, and the economy at home and abroad suffers.

If China were a democracy, Xi Jinping would have long since faced calls for his resignation or would have even vacated his post to take a well-paid position in the private sector.

However, Xi wants to continue.

The 68-year-old is expected to be confirmed in office at the 20th Party Congress of the Communist Party in autumn.

The constitution was even amended in 2018 to allow the president a third term.

But it's not just the failed corona policy that makes China's strongman look counted out.

Foreign policy is also not going well for Xi at the moment.

The smallest problem is that his foreign minister recently failed to form an alliance with a few small island states during an extended trip to the Pacific.

China has been criticized worldwide for weeks for its harsh crackdown on the Uyghurs and other minorities in Xinjiang province;

even Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently said that one cannot look away when Beijing is violating human rights.

China: Xi Jinping expected Russia to win the Ukraine war more quickly

And then there's China's "rock-solid" friendship with Russia.

In early February, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met in Beijing and issued a joint statement criticizing NATO's eastward expansion.

Two weeks later, Russian tanks crossed the border into Ukraine.

Some observers believe that Xi had counted on a quick Russian victory in the Ukraine war – a phenomenal misjudgement.

Even more than 100 days after the beginning of the war, there is no indication that Ukraine will be defeated any time soon.

Instead, more and more countries want to join NATO and the West is more united than it has been for years.

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But China doesn't want to see that, tirelessly blames the USA for the escalation and railed against the sanctions that the West and its allies have imposed on Russia.

As if nothing had happened, China's foreign minister described his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov as an "old friend" at the beginning of June.

China has driven itself into foreign policy isolation.

In China, however, there is just as little open criticism of Xi's Russia policy as there is of his corona strategy.

The Beijing-controlled media defend the zero-Covid policy in lengthy essays almost daily, and the Ukraine war plays only a minor role in the coverage anyway.

Nevertheless, something seems to have started to move in China's top leadership.

According to several media reports, it is primarily Premier Li Keqiang who is challenging Xi Jinping's authority.

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Zero Covid strategy in China: is Prime Minister Li Keqiang opposed to Party leader Xi?

The

Wall Street Journal

, citing Chinese government officials, reported in mid-May that Li Keqiang had successfully pushed for some of Xi's recent decisions to be reversed or softened.

It is thanks to Li that Beijing is no longer cracking down on private technology companies as it was a few months ago.

Li, whose term of office will end next spring after ten years, also helped some lockdown-stricken manufacturers to restart production.

In addition, according to the report, Li wants to have a say in his successor as prime minister and support a candidate who can act as a counterweight to Xi.

The 66-year-old has some high-ranking supporters in the Communist Party, it is said.

Li as a corrective to the authoritarian ruling Xi Jinping - and as the savior of the country's economy, which has been hit by Corona?

The prime minister has not made much of an appearance in recent years, having tried after taking office in 2013 to set different political accents than Xi.

Under pressure from the all-powerful party leader, Li caved in – only to be more prominently involved in Beijing's political establishment.

At the end of May he discussed with the governors of the ten economically strongest provinces how economic growth could be stabilized;

A few days later, at a meeting of the State Council, of which Li is chairman, he presented a plan for tax cuts.

And finally, on May 25, he spoke in a video conference attended by media reports as many as 100.

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"Li Keqiang has been instructed to keep the economy on course without questioning Xi Jinping's zero-Covid strategy.

Li is like a firefighter who is supposed to put out a raging inferno without water,” analyzes China and economics expert Jacob Gunter from the Berlin think tank Merics.

Li is trying desperately to "hold the economy together," according to Gunter.

"But until the zero-Covid strategy is abandoned, there is little Li can do to stabilize the economic base."

China: Xi Jinping holds the reins firmly in hand

While Xi Jinping is relentlessly trying to maintain Communist Party rule even in times of crisis, with increasing pressure and heightened ideological control, Li Keqiang seems to be taking a different path.

The prime minister is trying to buy popular support for the Chinese system with economic growth - a pragmatic strategy that has worked for decades.

According to media reports, Xi recently spoke at a meeting with dozens of foreign top managers about his vision of reforming global trade institutions - while his prime minister promised very concrete solutions to pressing problems, such as stagnant supply chains.

According to an evaluation by the “China Leadership Monitor”, Li was in the headlines in China’s state media 15 times as often in the past year as in 2020;

This value could even double this year if the trend of the last few months continues.

At the same time, however, nothing has changed in Xi Jinping's permanent presence, such as an evaluation of the front pages of the party newspaper

Renmin Ribao

by the China Media Project.

Xi is not only party leader and president, but also chairman of the Central Military Commission and wields more power than almost any other Chinese leader before him.

With an anti-corruption campaign, he has eliminated almost every opposition within the party;

the personality cult surrounding Xi is running at full speed even in Corona times.

"Any individual or group that dares to openly challenge their authority will be quickly sidelined," writes Victor Shih, a professor of political economy at the University of San Diego, in a contributor to

The Wire China

.

Xi's fight against corruption has been the main victim of those who previously criticized him.

And as recently as May, the party had banned senior retired members from making "negative political speeches" or speaking publicly on major political issues.

"Xi Jinping bans nagging within the Communist Party," headlined The

Economist

.

No direct criticism of his party leader can be heard from Li either, and certainly not from low-ranking politicians.

All that remains for the prime minister is to offer alternatives without deviating too far from the line that Xi has taken.

China is preparing for the party congress in the fall

"Xi will likely remain at the head of the country and gather a group of loyal supporters around him.

There is no sign that his ambitions for a third term as general secretary will be called into question at the party convention later this year,” writes Merics analyst Nis Grünberg.

This not only affects the political apparatus, but also the population, which China's leadership has been asking a lot for months with the many and expensive lockdowns across the country.

Anger about being locked up in your own apartment for weeks, about the lack of food deliveries and the lack of medicine, erupted above all on social networks.

In most cases, however, the censorship quickly intervened.

"Since President Xi Jinping took office in 2012, the government has become more restrictive," says Lynn Hong of the think tank Council on Foreign Relations.

“Protests against working conditions, environmental degradation, human rights abuses and now the pandemic have led to police crackdown and increased arrests and detentions.” With the 20th party congress in a few months, Hong writes: “Before previous party congresses, the authorities have surveillance and censorship tightened, and with Xi's legacy at stake, that could be the case again."

It is therefore unlikely that there will be any significant opposition to Xi Jinping's tough course in China in the coming weeks and months.

More than an occasional grumble should not be heard from China.

And that also means: An end to the zero-Covid strategy is just as in sight as a change of course in Beijing's Russia policy.

(sh)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-06-11

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