France election is underway: left-wing populist could be dangerous for Macron - notorious for brutal Merkel tweet
Created: 06/12/2022Updated: 06/12/2022 12:14 p.m
By: Bettina Menzel, Max Schäfer, Christoph Gschoßmann
France elects a new parliament.
Macron's party goes into the general election with a lead, but the gap is narrowing.
All developments in the news ticker.
Parliamentary elections in France are underway: there is likely to be a head-to-head race between the parties of Macron and Mélenchon
Election of national assembly deputies in France: voter turnout at record low?
Emmanuel Macron's party is the favorite in the election, but the lead over the left-wing alliance NUPES is dwindling.
This
news ticker for the 2022 French elections will
be continuously updated.
Update from June 12, 10:52 a.m
.: Should the left-green alliance "Nupes" around Mélenchon
(see previous update)
win the absolute majority, Macron would lose a large part of his political power.
In addition to Mélenchon's La France Insoumise party, Nupes also includes the Socialists, the Greens and the Communists.
Mélenchon had introduced himself as prime minister.
France election 2022: Left populist could be dangerous for Macron - notorious for Merkel tweet
Update from June 12, 10:05 a.m
.: Unforgettable this tweet: "Shut up, Ms. Merkel!
France is free.” Jean-Luc Mélenchon deposed him in 2014 after ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel called for reforms.
How dangerous can the left-wing populist become for Emmanuel Macron?
The veteran Mélenchon is a shrewd speaker and strategist.
In third place, he was eliminated in the first round despite 22 percent.
Nonetheless, current polls indicate that the new left-wing alliance is on the rise - and observers say that Mélenchon has a surprising number of votes.
Why is that?
France expert Ronja Kempin from the Science and Politics Foundation has an explanation.
Since many voters wanted to avoid another runoff between Macron and Le Pen, many voted for Mélenchon in the first round of voting.
"In 2022, the French voted not according to their hearts, but according to reason in the first ballot," said Kempin to
t-online
.
The Socialists, Greens or Communists would lose out.
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Jean-Luc Mélenchon delivering a campaign speech © OLIVIER CHASSIGNOLE/AFP
France election 2022: low turnout in parliamentary elections?
Update from June 12, 8.35 a.m
.: Are the French elections of 2022 of interest to the French at all?
The polling stations just opened.
However, there were signs of a low in turnout - fewer than every second person wanted to vote according to surveys.
The second round of parliamentary elections is on June 19th.
For the center politician Macron, it is about securing a parliamentary majority again.
Otherwise he would be forced to appoint a government with politicians and a prime minister from other camps.
In this case, the prime minister would have a much more important position in the state.
In particular, the new left-wing alliance is hoping for significantly more seats in parliament - polls have recently seen an upswing.
France election: High proportion of women among the candidates
Update from June 11, 7:00 p.m.:
Never before in France have there been as many female candidates for election as this year.
In the 2022 general election, 44.1 percent of the candidates are women.
In 2017 it was 42.4 percent, in 2012 the proportion of women was 40.1 percent, as reported by the French newspaper
Le Monde
.
On Sunday from 8 a.m. the approximately 48.7 million registered voters can cast their vote.
The 577 seats of the National Assembly are voted on.
The second round of parliamentary elections is a week from Sunday.
Parliamentary elections in France: Turnout could be lower than ever
Update from June 11, 4:24 p.m .:
Around 48.7 million voters are registered in this year’s parliamentary elections in France.
However, there were signs of a low in turnout, with fewer than every second person wanting to vote according to surveys.
Five years ago, the abstention rate was 51.3 percent - political observers assume that this negative record could well be broken.
Political scientist Vincent Tiberj told AFP that it was a "chloroform campaign" that "can only produce poor turnout in the end."
However, low turnout does not affect all parties equally.
In theory, according to France24
, the older electorate of Macron's "Ensemble!" party should be
more likely to go to the polls than younger working-class voters, who tend to vote for left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, for example.
Mélenchon's left-wing coalition, called Nupes, is almost level with Macron's party and its allies in the latest parliamentary election polls.
French general election starts in overseas territories
Update from June 11, 1:04 p.m .:
The first round of the French parliamentary elections has officially begun.
On the small French archipelago of Saint-Pierre and Miquelon off the east coast of Canada, the first three polling stations opened on Saturday afternoon (8 a.m. local time), as a spokeswoman for the town hall in Saint-Pierre confirmed to the German Press Agency.
The majority of French people can vote on Sunday.
Because of the time difference, voting in some overseas territories will already take place on Saturday.
Shortly after President Emmanuel Macron was re-elected for a second term, the French are electing a new parliament.
The 577 seats of the National Assembly are voted on.
For the center politician Macron, it is about securing a parliamentary majority again.
Otherwise he would be forced to appoint a government with politicians and a prime minister from other camps.
France election: Macron party wobbles - expert with meaningful prognosis
First report from June 9, 1:58 p.m.:
Paris – In the parliamentary elections in France, the French vote on who will represent them in the National Assembly in the future.
At the same time, the election is also a vote on Emmanuel Macron, who has just been re-elected.
As president, he holds the most important political office with a range of powers, but legislation is a matter for parliament.
The Prime Minister, who is the head of the government and determines the politics of the Grande Nation, is also appointed from the majority of these.
France election: Macron allies under pressure ahead of parliamentary elections
In order for Macron to push through his planned reforms, including pensions, his alliance “Ensemble!” must win a majority in parliament in the parliamentary elections.
However, the planned pension reform has been sharply criticized.
The government installed by Macron after the presidential election has also made mainly negative headlines since then.
Parliamentary elections in France | |
|---|---|
Elected institution | national assembly |
right to vote | majority voting |
How often is elected? | Every five years |
number of constituencies | 577 |
First ballot | Sunday 12 June 2022 |
Second ballot | Sunday 19 June 2022 |
Two women made allegations of rape against Solidarity Minister Damien Abad.
Although he rejects her, he is still threatened with an investigation.
Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin has also been criticized for the chaos at the Champions League final in Paris.
France election: Macron party's lead is shrinking
Accordingly weakened, Macron, his party La République en Marche and their alliance “Ensemble!” are going into the parliamentary elections.
According to a survey by the BVA Institute, just 35 percent of people in France would like Macron's party to get a majority.
And Macron supporters also have to fight in polls on voting intentions before the French election.
According to a recent survey by the opinion research institute Ifop, "Ensemble!" is one percentage point behind the left-wing alliance NUPES led by left-wing radical Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
According to forecasts on the distribution of seats after the parliamentary elections, "Ensemble!" will retain the majority in the National Assembly - the first-past-the-post system helps the Liberals - but the lead is shrinking here too.
Parliamentary elections in France: Mélenchon wants to become head of government with the help of the left-wing alliance NUPES
A lot can change before the decision of the parliamentary elections in France on June 19, the day of the runoff elections in the constituencies.
In view of the first-past-the-post system, pollster Brice Teinturier also warns: "One or two percentage points more or less can mean that 40 to 50 seats change sides," he told the France Inter broadcaster.
The foreseeable low turnout of 44 to 48 percent can also have a major impact on the outcome of the French election.
That's what Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who as a candidate in the 2022 presidential election in France just barely missed making it into the run-off, is hoping for.
Shortly thereafter, however, he brought himself into play as prime minister.
Mélenchon can already claim one success for himself: he has united the traditionally divided left in France, from social democrats to Greens to communists, in the “New People's Ecological and Social Union” (NUPES).
France election: Opposition goes into parliamentary elections stronger
NUPES wants to use the criticism of Macron's planned increase in the retirement age from 62 to 65 and the general concerns of many French people about inflation to win the parliamentary majority in the French elections.
Then Macron would have to appoint a left-wing prime minister.
But even if NUPES does not have a majority in the National Assembly after the French elections, as current polls suggest, the left-wing alliance forms a strong opposition.
Marine Le Pen and her Rassemblement National will definitely find themselves in that role.
For the first time since 1986, right-wing extremists will be represented in parliamentary groups in the National Assembly after the parliamentary elections.
When will the general elections in France be decided?
The first meaningful forecasts and projections for the French election will be available after the first ballot on Sunday (June 12).
Because candidates must receive an absolute majority of the votes in the first ballot and their votes must be at least 25 percent of registered voters to be elected, the decision will not come until June 19 in most constituencies.
(ms/AFP)
