Legislative: Given set winner in seats, doubts about the absolute majority

It was written that these legislative elections would be full of uncertainty.

At the end of the first round, the President of the Republic has a chance of retaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly.

But nothing is won yet.

The majority candidates obtain 25% of the votes at the national level, according to the first estimates of Ipsos Sopra Steria.

In terms of seat projections, this result can allow him to hope for between 255 and 295 MP seats.

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In the space of a few weeks, the threat had become a little more pressing on the party of the majority.

The fault of a certain Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who, even before the second round of the presidential election, had succeeded in imposing his electoral agenda.

In front of the cameras of BFMTV, on April 19, the tribune of rebellious France had solemnly called on the French to "elect" him at Matignon.

These legislative elections, he said then, were nothing but a third round of the presidential election.

The opportunity, according to him, to really vote for a project after a campaign narrowed by the war in Ukraine.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon can boast this Sunday evening of having placed the union of the left in this first round of the legislative elections.

But with 25.8% of the vote nationally, its room for improvement is now reduced.

Above all, the united left only gets a little more than three points more than the score of the rebellious in the first round of the presidential election.

Candidates from the left should, however, constitute the first opposition force in the Assembly, with 150 to 190 seats in the Assembly.

In detail, the Socialists can hope for between 24 and 29 seats, against 20 to 30 for the Greens and 10 to 16 for the Communists.

A decisive vote for all parties

For Emmanuel Macron, the whole issue will be whether he will manage to exceed the threshold of 289 deputies, as he knew how to do five years ago.

The union of the left could still cost him several parliamentary positions next week after the second round.

Despite an already record abstention, Emmanuel Macron obtained a very large majority in 2017 with 355 seats.

The question, this time, will be whether or not the President of the Republic should govern with a relative majority.

Beyond this duel between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, this first round was fraught with challenges for all parties.

The movements allied to LFI have staked their survival.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon had promised them that the distribution of constituencies should allow them to keep a group in the National Assembly, by electing more than 15 deputies.

On the right, the Republicans wanted to regain some color after the presidential fiasco.

Before this first round of the legislative elections, they still said they hoped for the election of 75 to 85 deputies.

The right-wing party and its UDI allies emerge at around 14% according to initial estimates.

With a range of deputies between 50 and 80 seats.

This election promised to be also rich in lessons for the far right.

Marine Le Pen, rather discreet during the first weeks of the campaign, was aiming for a record by obtaining for the first time a group in the National Assembly outside the proportional ballot.

This objective should be achieved.

Éric Zemmour, he is simply playing his future in politics against outgoing MP Sereine Mauborgne.

Consult the results of the legislative elections, constituency by constituency, in particular the results in Paris, Marseille or Lyon, as well as the results in the constituencies of Hauts-de-Seine, Val-de-Marne, Seine-Saint-Denis, Val-d 'Oise, Essonne, Seine-et-Marne, Yvelines and in the Oise.