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At the end of the first round of the legislative elections, the left gathered behind Jean-Luc Mélenchon is tied with 25.9% of the votes at the national level, according to Ifop estimates available at 8:50 p.m. with the troops of Emmanuel Macron.
For the President of the Republic, it is a setback.
For the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, the president's party would not clearly come out on top in terms of votes on the evening of the first round of the legislative elections.
Enough to justify the call for
“humility”
launched to his troops on Sunday evening in a small committee
.
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Find all the results of the legislative elections
LIVE - First round of the 2022 legislative elections: follow the election night
Beyond the very strong abstention, he does not benefit from the momentum of his re-election six weeks ago to transform the trial and ensure a comfortable majority in the National Assembly.
Therefore, it is his entire five-year term that will live this week under the threat of the troops of the New Popular Ecological and Social Union.
Probably not to claim Matignon since with a range of 180 to 210 deputies the projections give the left still far from an absolute majority.
Especially since having achieved union in the first round, the left-wing parties united in Nupes cannot count on vote reserves for the second round.
But enough to hope to impose a relative majority on Emmanuel Macron, who would have between 275 and 310 deputies for an absolute majority of 289 deputies.
“surge next Sunday, to definitively reject the disastrous projects of the majority of Mr. Macron”
.
Read also
Legislative results 2022: the Nupes and Together!
in a pocket handkerchief, the RN in front of the right
If the push from the left resulted in a relative majority for the head of state, this would paradoxically push him to turn to the right in order to be able to apply his program.
This is the other lesson of this first round.
With 11.3% of the vote, Les Républicains can hope for between 40 and 60 deputies and therefore become essential for the Head of State in the new National Assembly.
Paradoxically, therefore, since LR is about to lose its place as the first opposition group in the Hemicycle.
As for Marine Le Pen, despite a score of 19.2%, she would only get between 10 and 25 deputies.
Not sure of being able to form a group in the National Assembly despite his second consecutive second place in the presidential election.
If we are in the majority (…), well, we will have to submit or resign
Jean-Luc Melenchon.
This first round of the legislative elections marks the end of a sluggish campaign, and the start of a week under high tension.
After his re-election as President of the Republic, on April 24, Emmanuel Macron tried to temporize.
So as not to let an unusually long campaign unfold.
Seven weeks instead of the usual four.
You had to avoid giving your opponents a hold.
This is how the Head of State took his time to appoint his Prime Minister and then his government.
There is no question of taking the risk that a newly appointed minister will provoke a controversy that is detrimental to his camp.
But it is in another trap that Emmanuel Macron fell.
That stretched by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who, by calling on his voters to send him to Matignon the day after the presidential election, managed to rally the left behind him.
And to pose as the main opponent of the head of state.
Mélenchon's offensive until the last minute
By blowing on the embers of all the controversies of the moment: accusations of sexual assault against the ex-LR and new Minister of Solidarity, Damien Abad, violent outbursts at the Stade de France against a backdrop of police failures.
For a month, Jean-Luc Mélenchon appeared on the front of the stage, on the offensive until the last minute, last Friday, in Marseille, for a warning.
“If we are in the majority (…), well, we will have to submit or resign,”
launched the leader of the Insoumis to try to push if not his advantage, in any case his dynamics.
Re-elected without a campaign and reappointed without momentum in a country with raw nerves, Emmanuel Macron saw the unexpected arise on his left
Throughout this period, Emmanuel Macron remained in the background, only descending into the arena at the very last moment to dramatize the issue of the ballot.
“Faced with those who want to oppose, divide, cleave, the French will choose unity and unity,”
assured the head of state three days before the ballot.
A campaign on the defensive, then.
As if Emmanuel Macron had overestimated the ripple effect of his reappointment as head of state on the legislative elections.
Marine Le Pen's lackluster campaign and the withdrawal of the Republicans led her to think for a moment that the essentials had been done.
That the left would never manage to overcome its divisions.
This was no doubt ignoring the particular conditions of the presidential election.
Read also
Benjamin Morel: "Macron is far from the electoral anointing"
Re-elected without a campaign and returned without momentum in a country with raw nerves, Emmanuel Macron saw the unexpected arise on his left.
And now threaten his five-year term.
Without an absolute majority in the National Assembly, the President of the Republic will have to learn to compose.
It is the whole issue of the inter-rounds of the legislative elections to convince the French to give him a free hand for five more years.
“We are the only political force capable of obtaining a majority in the National Assembly,”
summed up the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne.
Le Figaro
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