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Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Orthodox Easter service in the Cathedral of Christ the Savior in Moscow.
Photo:
Alexander Zemlianichenko / dpa
Putin's death has become a fantasy in its own right in recent months.
Almost every day I hear people from all walks of life, from across the country and around the world, saying they are praying for Putin's death.
Banned in Russia, Facebook (or rather, its Russian-language part) is full of speculation and debate about what to do in the event of Putin's death, whether to start a new life, or whether things will turn out worse than before.
Just as interesting as this social phenomenon is the coverage of Putin's terminal illness and possible death.
In late May, several British tabloids, citing intelligence sources, reported that he was already dead but that security forces were covering up his death.
The death of the Azerbaijani President was covered up for months
There have been instances where the death of a leader has been concealed, relatively recently.
According to sources close to him, Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev died in July 2003. However, it was officially announced that he was receiving medical treatment in Turkey, although he had not appeared in public since July.
After that, both he and his son Ilham ran for the presidency.
Then, on October 2, 2003, it was announced that Aliyev Sr. was withdrawing his candidacy in favor of his son.
On October 15, Aliyev Jr. won the presidential election, and it was not until December that it was officially announced that the former president had died.
Media around the world are increasingly reporting that Putin is seriously ill and could possibly die soon.
Not long ago, Hollywood director Oliver Stone announced that Putin was suffering from cancer.
It was the first and only public statement by someone who has personally communicated with the Russian President and who can know this from him or people close to him.
Oliver Stone conducted a series of interviews with Putin in 2015 and subsequently released a documentary about him on HBO.
According to Stone, however, Putin had cancer a long time ago and had been cured.
There is no logical reason to believe that he will die anytime soon
In April this year, the independent Russian publication Project analyzed information about the flights of doctors accompanying Putin on his travels.
Projekt found that he has a medical professional with him at all times - a doctor who specializes in treating thyroid cancer.
Sources in Moscow close to the Kremlin have repeatedly confirmed similar information to me: Putin underwent an operation for prostate cancer, but it was successful and did not endanger his life.
Putin will be 70 this year, but despite all the rumours, there is currently no reason to believe that he will die anytime soon.
That Russian society (or rather the part of it that protests) is so fixated on his death is an interesting symptom of the disease of society itself. Psychologists call this learned helplessness.
Putin's Russian opponents have long since realized that they have no control over the situation in the country, and the only conclusion they draw from this realization is hope for Putin's death.
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Since Putin himself is fascinated by history and historical parallels, and many Russians believe that scenarios from the past can repeat themselves, Putin's impending death is regularly compared to the way his predecessors died.
The most popular analogy is Stalin's death.
Comparison with Stalin
Stalin fomented the Cold War in the late 1940s and early 1950s, and fears grew worldwide that it might escalate into a "World War III," but the nuclear confrontation never came.
Stalin died before he was 75 (that is, five years older than Putin is today).
Stalin's cadre policy, which purged his entourage of bright and talented people, resulted in a handful of mediocre people gathering around his coffin, paralyzed with fear.
But they, too, began the gradual dismantling of the regime immediately after his death.
Putin's current entourage is also likely to resign once their radical leader dies.
However, the historical parallels are disappointing: the dictatorial regime in Russia did not collapse immediately after Stalin's death, but only 40 years later in the course of »perestroika«.
Stalin's earlier counterpart was Ivan the Terrible, the first Russian tsar, known in the 17th century for his aggressive foreign policy and outrageous domestic repression.
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Ivan the Terrible's death had consequences similar to Stalin's: a raped and demoralized country collapsed 20 years after his death.
Moscow was occupied by Polish troops, and the Russian elite voted to make the heir to the Polish throne the new Tsar of Russia.
Putin himself compares himself to Peter the Great
Vladimir Putin is obviously not comparing himself to Ivan the Terrible or Stalin, but to Peter the Great.
Last week, Putin opened the Birth of an Empire exhibition in Moscow to mark the 350th birthday of Peter the Great.
He says that "almost nothing has changed" over the centuries: "We must defend ourselves, fight... Peter the Great fought for 21 years in the Northern War.
You'd think he was at war with Sweden and taking something from them.
He didn't!
He brought back!
Well, apparently it's our destiny, too, to take something back and strengthen ourselves."
By the way, Peter did not leave Russia with a prosperous state - on the contrary, after his death came the so-called era of palace coups.
For almost half a century the state could not develop normally.
So goes the typical story of Russian leaders: the powerful imperial rulers generally expanded the country's territory, raped the population, and left a humiliated and devastated society that took a long time to recover.
These leaders did not appear great until centuries later, but at the moment of their death their contemporaries felt fabulous relief.
However, the death of a tyrant never led to a reform of the country, a creative surge, or accelerated development.
Only one death in history of a "strong leader" of Russia has shaped Russia differently.
It was Emperor Nicholas I who, at the beginning of the 19th century, also wanted to appear as the creator of a renewed empire.
He led Russia in the Crimean War against the alliance of England, France, Turkey, Sardinia and Austria.
He fell, lost the war bitterly and probably committed suicide (various stories circulate about his death).
The military defeat led to reforms in Russia.
Serfdom was abolished, new civil institutions established, and the economy radically reformed.
It is not the death of a dictator that promotes development, only a military defeat.
However, in the current circumstances, it is difficult to dream of a military defeat of Russia.
Wishing someone dead in a mystical way seems much easier.