Who is the favorite to win the elections in Colombia? Rodolfo Hernandez or Petro? This is what the polls say

Colombia will decide between Petro and Hernández: the summary of the elections 5:36

(CNN Spanish) --

The countdown to the second round of the presidential elections in Colombia continues and a week before the definition, on Sunday the 19th, Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández, have taken advantage of each other, by a few, very few percentage points in the intention to vote.

After the first round that decanted the options from six to only two candidates and a week before the second round, two polls, those of Guarumo-EcoAnalítica and GAD3, give Hernández a few points advantage over Petro.

But other pollsters, such as those of YanHass and the Ponderadora de polls de la Silla Vacía, put Petro with a smaller advantage over Hernández.

The key there is the margin of error, as well as the blank vote.

This is what the polls say.

GAD3 Survey

The Spanish pollster debuts with a so-called "presidential tracking" in which it conducted this survey for the so-called Great Media Alliance made up of RCN Radio, Noticias RCN, La Fm and the newspaper La República, among other media.

According to this, the intention to vote until June 10 is as follows:

Rodolfo Hernández — 46.8%

(in the previous measurement after the first round, it was 52.3%)

(in the previous measurement after the first round, it was 45.1%).

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The blank vote in this poll is 5.1% and the margin of error is +1.4%.

Factsheet:

4,836 online interviews with cell phone users between May 30 and June 9, 2022.

June 10, 2022

Guarumo and EcoAnalytics

The survey carried out for the newspaper El Tiempo gives a technical tie between Petro and Hernández, as follows:

Rodolfo Hernández —

of the intention to vote.

of the voting intentions.

Margin of error:

 2.5%.

Technical sheet:

The Guarumo SAS and EcoAnalítica Measurement and Economic Concepts SAS survey was carried out between June 6 and 9 and included 2,029 interviews.

Publication date:

June 11, 2022.

Yanhass

In this survey contracted by the RCN media chain, it was as follows:

Gustavo Petro —

Technical Sheet:

 1,234 face-to-face interviews in 60 municipalities between June 5 and 10.

: 3.2%.

June 11, 2022.

Semaphore of Pollsters of the Empty Chair

The La Silla Vacía poll weighting gives a technical tie between Hernández and Petro.

It uses the polling stoplight score as a base, which rates the polling houses from 0 to 10 according to their methodology and ability to approach the electoral results.

According to the weighted surveys, the intention to vote until June 12 is as follows:

Rodolfo Hernández — 46.5%

 in voting intention

 in voting intention.

National Consulting Center

A survey by the National Consulting Center for the Colombian media outlet CM& gives a technical tie in voting intentions between the presidential candidates Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández, who went on to the second round.

Rodolfo Hernández — 41%

 in voting intention

 in voting intention.

1% of those surveyed would not vote for any, according to the results.

Technical file:

 1,200 telephone interviews in homes in 43 municipalities in Colombia between May 30 and 31.

 2.8% and 95% confidence.

 June 1, 2022.

Petro and Hernández, under the magnifying glass for complaints and accusations 2:49

According to this latest survey, and if Sunday's electoral patterns are followed, Hernández would be stronger than Petro in regions such as the Coffee Region and Antioquia, (54% vs. 26%);

the center-east of the country (51% vs. 23%) and the center-south of the country (46% vs. 34%).

Petro, on the other hand, would have an advantage over Hernández in Bogotá (49% vs. 39%);

in the Caribbean region (48% vs. 33%) and in the Colombian Pacific (57% vs. 23%).

In demographic data of the survey, the inhabitants of higher strata would vote more for Rodolfo Hernández than for Gustavo Petro (52% vs. 40%), while those of the middle stratum would prefer Petro.

Among the low-stratum respondents there is a technical tie: 40% Hernández vs.

39% Petro).

The leftist candidate led in the first round with just over 8.5 million votes, equivalent to 40.32%.

Hernández, who calls himself an 'outsider' and gained strength in the last weeks before the elections, obtained 5.9 million votes, 28.15%, beating better-known candidates such as Federico Gutiérrez and Sergio Fajardo.

MEET THE CANDIDATES:

• Gustavo Petro

• Rodolfo Hernandez

Colombian Elections