David Desgouilles is a columnist at
Marianne
.
He has published
Dérapage
(ed. du Rocher, 2017) and
Their Lost Wars
, (ed. du Rocher, 2019).
To discover
Find all the results of the legislative elections
FIGAROVOX. - The Nupes and Together! are neck and neck. Is this a defeat for Emmanuel Macron?
David DESGOUILLES. -
The President of the Republic was somewhat taken at his own game. He imagined that the non-campaign strategy which had succeeded in the presidential election could be repeated in the legislative elections.
He knowingly dragged out the composition of the government in order to keep the spotlight on something other than the election campaign.
It was only in the last few days, when he discovered the latest polls, that he realized that his electorate would not necessarily mobilize.
However, since the quinquennium was introduced, this is usually the case.
Thus, the president has sometimes let his elderly electorate be seduced by Les Républicains alternatives, especially when the candidates seemed compatible with his centrism and especially when they were outgoing.
You have to go to the
Obviously, the photo of Emmanuel Macron next to the candidate on a poster is no longer enough, as in 2017, to elect an unknown person.
We will only know in a week if the president does not obtain an absolute majority, then it would be a personal defeat.
The variable-geometry devil is no longer really a devil.
Therefore, busy mounting dams on all sides, they will not be solid and will let water through.
David Desgouilles
Several figures of the presidential majority affirmed that they would not give voting instructions in the event of duels between the Nupes and the National Rally. Do these elections sign the end of the Republican Front?
It is easy to build a barrage during an in-between-turn if there is only one configuration.
This was the case, for example, during regional elections or the last presidential election, when there was only one "danger" to designate, the National Rally.
Last April, Emmanuel Macron had thus tried to seduce the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, then adorned with all the virtues of democracy and generosity, in the face of the National Rally described as the devil.
But this time, we can have, and sometimes in neighboring constituencies, three different configurations: the classic opposition with the National Rally where you have to once again attract the voters of the left, the opposition to the candidate of the Nupes where you have to attract National Rally voters, and finally the situation where you have to give your opinion on a National Rally-Nupes confrontation.
Voters have eyes and ears.
If in the same city a Rassemblement national voter is considered the devil to the east of the river and the object of all attention to the west, he will above all have the feeling of being taken for an imbecile.
Same for voter Nupes.
The variable-geometry devil is no longer really a devil.
Therefore, busy erecting dams on all sides, they will not be solid and will let water through.
Read alsoChristophe Boutin: “Why the “republican front” only applies to the right”
How do you view the strategy of Ensemble! to dismiss the two extremes back to back?
As we have just mentioned, it is not as simple as that.
Some have a preference for Nupes candidates who are “less worse”.
This is the case of Elisabeth Borne and Clément Beaune.
Amélie de Montchalin, on the other hand, would tend to send Nupes and Rassemblement national back to back.
But neither strategy is satisfactory.
Indeed, to be elected against the bloc led by Mélenchon, you need Lepenist votes, and to be elected against the bloc led by Marine Le Pen, you need votes from Nupes.
The central position, which has long been an advantage for the macronie becomes, in this case, a handicap.
There is also the temptation of "case by case" but it is quite illegible on the ground.
The National Rally should still be much more present in parliament this time.
He is in the lead in more than a hundred constituencies which had never happened before.
David Desgouilles
The working classes voted little during this first round of legislative elections. How to explain it?
The working classes only really mobilize during the presidential election and have done so for a few years even if it is getting worse.
Thus, the National Rally, whose workers and employees constitute the bulk of its sociological base, is handicapped during local elections and legislative elections.
This can be explained by two reasons: largely eurosceptic, they identified the President of the Republic as the one who alone had the "keys to the truck" (nuclear deterrence, possibility of speaking as equals with the greats of this world, etc. .) whereas they understood that the work of the deputies very often consisted in transposing European regulations into French law.
Secondly,
the Rassemblement national still sometimes comes up against a problem of human resources on the ground.
It motivates its popular voters less than Marine Le Pen, it does not always manage to mobilize them for unknown candidates and often still ill-prepared, even if this is much less the case in 2022 than in 2017. The fact remains that the Rassemblement national should nevertheless be much more present in parliament this time.
He is in the lead in more than a hundred constituencies which had never happened before.
And it owes it above all to the popular voters who moved yesterday.
Still, the National Rally should still be much more present in parliament this time.
He is in the lead in more than a hundred constituencies which had never happened before.
And it owes it above all to the popular voters who moved yesterday.
Still, the National Rally should still be much more present in parliament this time.
He is in the lead in more than a hundred constituencies which had never happened before.
And it owes it above all to the popular voters who moved yesterday.
