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(CNN) --
The world's greatest powers may have committed to working toward a world without nuclear weapons, but global arsenals are expected to rise over the next decade, according to a new report.
"There are clear indications that the reductions that have characterized global nuclear arsenals since the end of the cold war have ended," the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in a report on Monday.
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The report comes amid growing concern in the West about efforts by China and North Korea to expand their nuclear capabilities.
The United States suspects that North Korea is preparing to carry out its seventh nuclear test imminently, while Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe told the Shangri-La Dialogue summit over the weekend that his The country had made "impressive progress" in developing new nuclear weapons.
However, while SIPRI reports that China is "in the midst of a substantial expansion of its nuclear weapons arsenal," it makes it clear that China and North Korea are not solely responsible.
"All nuclear weapon states are increasing or upgrading their arsenals and most are using nuclear rhetoric and highlighting the role that nuclear weapons play in their military strategies - this is a very worrying trend," he says.
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A group of people in Seoul watch television footage of a North Korean missile test.
According to SIPRI estimates, the United States and Russia remain by far the world's largest nuclear powers, with 3,708 and 4,477 nuclear weapons, respectively, while China has 350, France 290, and Britain 180. However, the number of warheads of China has increased in recent years, rising from 145 warheads in 2006, according to the institute.
The Pentagon predicts that the Chinese arsenal will "at least double in size" over the next decade.
Although the arsenals of the United States and Russia decreased in 2021, SIPRI believes that a long-term "alarming" trend will see both countries increase their arsenals and develop more powerful weapons.
North Korea's secrecy makes it difficult to gauge its nuclear capabilities.
Some estimates put its current arsenal at about 20 nuclear warheads, although the United States and other countries believe it is working to increase this number and its ability to launch them.
Pyongyang has carried out a record number of ballistic missile launches this year and on Saturday named top nuclear negotiator Choe Son Hui as its first female foreign minister.
"North Korea continues to prioritize its military nuclear program as a core element of its national security strategy," SIPRI said, adding that "the country's fissile material inventory is believed to have grown in 2021."
The think tank, which included figures on the country in its annual report for the first time this year, said it believed North Korea now had enough fissile material to produce up to 55 warheads.
But its ability to launch these weapons remains unknown.
In May, North Korea tested what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile, although the weapon's range or its ability to deliver a nuclear warhead was unclear.
"There is no publicly available evidence that North Korea has produced an operational nuclear warhead to be delivered by an intercontinental-range ballistic missile, but it may have a small number of warheads for medium-range ballistic missiles," SIPRI said.
Japan's Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi attends the Shangri-La Dialogue summit in Singapore on June 11, 2022.
SIPRI also said that India and Pakistan were making efforts to expand their nuclear arsenals.
He also said that Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge having nuclear weapons, was trying to modernize its arsenal.
Estimates for Indian and Pakistani stockpiles were 160 and 165, and Israel's were 90.
In January, the world's five largest nuclear powers — also known as the P5, and who are also the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council — pledged to work together for "a world without nuclear weapons" in a rare statement. of unit.
However, Russia's subsequent invasion of Ukraine has raised concerns that nuclear weapons may be used outside of a test situation for the first time since the US bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.
Since the beginning of the war, Russia has repeatedly reminded the world of its nuclear power in mentions apparently intended to dissuade Western countries from further intervention.
CIA Director William Burns has also warned that Russia could use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
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Now many nations—even those without nuclear weapons—are rethinking the situation.
Japan, the United States and South Korea have recently promised to strengthen their shared nuclear deterrent strategy.
At the Shangri-La Dialogue, Japan's Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi made unusually strong comments directed at North Korea and China.
"The world has become even more uncertain," Kishi told the main Asia Defense summit.
"Japan is surrounded by actors who have, or are developing, nuclear weapons, and who openly ignore the rules."
He criticized neighboring North Korea's missile tests and called China a "nation of concern," citing recent military operations it has carried out with Russia in waters near Japan and Taiwan, the first since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
"Ukraine (today) may be East Asia tomorrow," he said.
At the same summit, South Korea's Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup said his country was going to "drastically strengthen" its defense capabilities amid growing concern over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program.
Several experts have pointed out that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has demonstrated the power of nuclear deterrence.
Ukraine is one of the few countries that has voluntarily given up a nuclear arsenal.
It did so after the fall of the Soviet Union, sending many of its weapons to Russia, the same country that is now invading it.
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"Countries that feel threatened may look at Ukraine and think that getting rid of [their] nuclear weapons is not the way forward and that could lessen the incentive for them to move towards a nuclear disarmament agreement which will become an uphill task." said regional security expert Ian Chong, also an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.
Chong said that at Shangri-La there was "a high level of concern about nuclear weapons."
"We're seeing a rise in tensions that very well reflects the concerns in Northeast Asia [right now] in the event of any nuclear attack."
eyes in beijing
The SIPRI report is likely to refocus attention on China's nuclear ambitions, after reports last year that Beijing was building an extensive network of intercontinental ballistic missile silos in its western desert.
"Several additional warheads are believed to have been assigned to the operating forces in 2021 following the delivery of new mobile launchers and a submarine," SIPRI wrote.
At the Shangri-La Dialogue, Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe defended his country's nuclear posture.
"China has always followed a proper path to develop nuclear capabilities for the protection of our country," he said in response to questions about the new nuclear missile silos.
Wei said nuclear weapons would be used "in self-defense" and to prevent nuclear war.
"We develop nuclear capabilities to protect the hard work of the Chinese people and protect our people from the scourge of nuclear war," he said.
Wei's comments came after statements by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who told the same conference that China was engaged in coercive, aggressive and dangerous actions that threatened to "undermine the security, stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific".
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