What will Biden do if Putin uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine? This is what the experts say

By Ken Dilanian, Dan De Luce and Courtney Kube -

It's a troubling question with no acceptable answer: What would President Joe Biden do if Russia used nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war?

A half-dozen current and former government officials briefed on the issue, and several outside experts, revealed to our sister network NBC News that there was no premeditated plan and little agreement on how the US would respond to a norm-breaking act of destruction. and that it could destroy a Ukrainian city, kill tens of thousands of people and send a nuclear rain cloud drifting over NATO countries in Western Europe.

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This is not new to the Biden Administration.

Indeed, when the Obama Administration played a war game simulating Russia's use of nuclear weapons in the Baltic, there were fundamental disagreements about how to react. 

US intelligence officials say they have seen no signs that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to employ so-called nuclear weapons on the battlefield, but various versions of Russian military doctrine published since 2000 have envisioned the first use. of nuclear weapons in response to a conventional threat in a regional war.

And military experts say that Russia's smaller warheads have many times the explosive power of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

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As the United States continues to send increasingly sophisticated weapons designed to help Ukraine destroy invading Russian forces, US officials tell NBC News that the Biden Administration has been thinking the unthinkable for months about what Vladimir Putin might do — and war game scenarios that imagine Russia using an atomic bomb on Ukraine.

"We don't see ... practical evidence at this time that Russia is planning the deployment or even the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons," CIA Director William Burns said last month.

But, he added, "given the kind of saber rattling we've heard from Russian leaders, we can't take those possibilities lightly."

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NBC News spoke with a half-dozen current and former officials briefed on the issue, and several outside experts.

Current officials declined to speak publicly, citing the sensitivity of the planning.

It is fair to say that the US response "would depend heavily on how the Russians used" a nuclear weapon, as one US official regularly briefed on US government deliberations put it.

A demonstration shot over the Black Sea?

An attack on Ukrainian troops in a remote area?

Or much more provocative scenarios, such as a devastating blow to a major Ukrainian city or a nuclear attack on a NATO country?

The US menu of options is stark, according to officials and outside experts: stay the course, increase sanctions and continue to arm the Ukrainians, while building an international coalition against Russia that completely isolates the country;

launch a conventional military attack against Russian forces in Ukraine or Russia;

or respond with a nuclear attack.

Unless a NATO country is attacked, the United States has no obligation to respond.

A Russian nuclear missile in Red Square during the military parade marking the 75th anniversary of the Nazi defeat, on June 24, 2020 in Moscow, Russia.Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Some military and intelligence officials told NBC News they believe the United States is unlikely to retaliate military after a single Russian use of a so-called tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

Others believe that Biden would have to unleash some conventional force, perhaps attacking Russian troops in Ukraine or the Russian military unit that launched the nuclear weapon, an option that could have serious repercussions, as Russian military leaders could be killed.

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If Russia were to use a nuclear weapon of any kind, "I hope that (the president) will say that we are in a new situation, and that the United States will go directly to war against Russia to stop this government that has not only broken so many international laws and violated human rights, but now it has also violated the nuclear taboo,” explained Evelyn Farkas, a former senior Pentagon official for Russia and now executive director of the McCain Institute.

“Putin will sign the regime change order,” she added.

But two US officials briefed on the issue disagreed, with one saying, "Unless they use them against NATO, we're probably not going to respond militarily."

According to this idea, Biden would not want to risk an escalation into a full-scale nuclear war leading to the destruction of American cities.

But he may not have to, because if Putin opted for nuclear weapons, experts believe most other countries in the world, including many close to the conflict, would quickly turn on Russia and isolate it.

“The whole world would stop,” said Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear expert and distinguished fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.

A remote possibility that cannot be taken lightly

US and Western national security officials tell NBC News there has been no sign that Russia has removed the tactical nukes from their storage facilities.

Intelligence officials believe Putin would consider nuclear weapons only if he believed his regime was in mortal danger.

But two US officials, citing US intelligence assessments, believe some in Putin's inner circle have encouraged him to test a nuclear weapon as a show of force during times when his conventional forces have been fighting in Ukraine.

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Officials say concerns remain that Putin may choose this option if he believes Russia has been cornered. 

Putin put Moscow's nuclear forces on high alert shortly after his invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, warning that "nobody should have any doubt that a direct attack on our country will lead to destruction and horrible consequences for any aggressor." potential".

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But US officials told NBC News they didn't see any changes or movements at the time.

In April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the West not to underestimate the high risks of a nuclear conflict over Ukraine.

In recent weeks, Putin supporters on Russian state television have spoken openly of nuclear war with the United States and Europe.

All of this comes in the context of a Russian nuclear doctrine that has evolved in what Western officials consider disturbing ways.

In a 1993 document, Russia said it would only use nuclear weapons when the country's existence was threatened.

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But in versions published since 2000, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to any weapons of mass destruction used to attack Russia and its allies, according to scholars who have examined it.

The doctrine also allows the use of nuclear weapons "in response to large-scale aggression with conventional weapons in situations critical to the national security of the Russian Federation."

Experts have described that strategy as "escalation to de-escalation," saying it means Russia is willing to make limited use of nuclear weapons to win what would otherwise be a conventional war.

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On paper, the US nuclear doctrine is similar, but in practical terms, experts do not believe that an American president would ever use nuclear weapons in a regional conventional war, and the United States has not, through Korea , Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.

Officials say the main purpose of the US nuclear arsenal is to deter or respond to a nuclear attack by an adversary.

However, the United States has not ruled out the use of nuclear weapons in response to biological or chemical attacks and, in some limited circumstances, to conventional attacks.

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It still maintains a hundred nuclear weapons in NATO countries, originally placed to prevent Russian tanks from taking over Western Europe.

Nuclear warning shot?

Officials are struggling to understand exactly what might lead Putin to use a nuclear weapon.

To consolidate the gains made on the battlefield?

To reverse losses?

To avoid a defeat?

“It is not clear where that red line is.

If Ukrainian forces entered Russian territory, would that be enough?

I don't know," said Chris Chivvis, who served from April 2018 to April 2021 as the US National Intelligence Officer for Europe.

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Citing Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia, its 2014 takeover of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, and the Kremlin's interference in the 2016 US election, he added: "The reality is that we have been surprised by Russia three or four times in the last few years. 15 years".