25 years after the handover

In the course of returning to a quarter of a century, decisions made by different people at different historical junctures have affected the direction of the whole of Hong Kong, and Tian Beijun, honorary chairman of the Liberal Party, must have a seat.

As a representative of the previous generation of business elites and the moderate establishment, Tian Beijun said in an exclusive interview with "Hong Kong 01" that "one country, two systems" itself is a process of mutual integration, allowing the two systems and lifestyles of the mainland and Hong Kong to draw closer to each other and learn from each other's strengths However, with the development in recent years, the political reality of Hong Kong has turned to one side, towards the mainland system, but at the same time, the ideas of the people and the central government are gradually drifting away.

The role of the business community in the new political situation will gradually diminish.

Tian Beijun believes that the most important historical point in the development of "One Country, Two Systems" to the current situation is the rejection of the political reform plan by universal suffrage for the Chief Executive in 2015.

Using the popular concept of "multiverse" in movies as an analogy, he believes that in another time branch created by the passage of the political reform, the chief executive is elected by universal suffrage, and the entire turmoil of the amendment bill can be avoided, and there will be no subsequent incidents. various unfortunate events.

In the "timeline" that everyone is currently experiencing, it is no longer meaningful to talk about universal suffrage.

The 25th Anniversary of China's Return - Interview with Political Veterans No. 3

Tian Beijun, Honorary Chairman of the Liberal Party.

(Photo by Luo Junhao)

25 Years of Return

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It's a pity that the differences between Hong Kong people and the central government are still "dare to be angry and not to speak out"

The 75-year-old Tian Beijun has reduced his appearances in front of the media in the past year, but his leisurely style has not changed for many years. Even when talking about serious political issues, his tone is still relaxed.

Probably as pointed out by his former apprentice Li Zijing: Politics is only a part of his attention, and the most important thing is to live a happy life.

"The governance model will be closer and closer to that of the mainland." This is Tian Beijun's judgment on the current and future situation of Hong Kong at the beginning of the interview. This is a neutral statement and does not contain positive or negative meanings.

He explained that Hong Kong was ruled by the British for more than 100 years, and there was a lot of misunderstanding between the mainland and Hong Kong and the mainland, and Hong Kong people were familiar with the original British governance method, so they Deng Xiaoping promised Hong Kong "fifty years unchanged".

In the practice of "One Country, Two Systems", Hong Kong and the Mainland can run in each other, shorten the distance, and learn from each other's strengths. The people of the two places can also learn from each other.

"It's a pity, however, that this difference of opinion still exists today." Tian Beijun was referring to the ideal system and way of life in the minds of the general public in Hong Kong, which were different from the mainland's official thinking. The popular saying is that people have not returned. For example, many elites still only see Hong Kong as a "place for money", and their children may not take root in Hong Kong after studying abroad. I believe one of the reasons is that they have always been deeply influenced by Western ideas. Wherever you stand, you will eventually accept the Western way of life.

As Hong Kong's governance model is getting closer to the mainland, it is believed that the above-mentioned situation will continue to intensify.

Tian Beijun pointed out that some things that have happened in Hong Kong in the past three years have indeed caused Hong Kong people to have different ideas about this place. For example, in the case of the pro-democracy primary election, most of the defendants were detained for more than a year before the trial began. This is indeed very different from the legal system that Hong Kong people knew in the past. To describe the current social situation, the public just "dare to be angry and dare not speak, and keep it in mind."

▼The defendants in the pro-democracy primary election case face the national security law trial▼

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Hong Kong in another universe: Political reforms can be avoided through amendments

Since the expectations of the Hong Kong people cannot be reconciled with the will of the central government, many political conflicts have arisen in the future.

Tian Beijun believes that in the past 25 years, Hong Kong and the mainland have missed many opportunities to draw closer to each other. Among them, the most regrettable battle was on June 18, 2015, when the political reform plan for the chief executive by universal suffrage was not passed in the Legislative Council.

At that time, the establishment group left the venue due to the coordination error of "Waiting to Bury Fa Uncle". As a result, the plan was rejected by only 8 votes in support and 28 votes against. Tian Beijun was one of the few establishment factions who remained in the conference hall to vote in favor.

However, he stated that he had nothing to blame for the establishment. Anyway, without the support of the democrats at that time, the plan would definitely not pass.

He continued to point out that the political reform plan of the day was an opportunity for the central government and Hong Kong people to make concessions to narrow the gap between the two places: "If the pan-democrats accept it, universal suffrage will be possible in 2017. ’, this is an opportunity. The mainland hopes to have a gatekeeping mechanism, and the Hong Kong people want one person, one vote. This is always a prudent choice, right? The truth of ‘half a glass of water’.” He pointed out that at that time, he felt that the opportunity to bring the two systems closer was It’s a pity to miss this way. After going through 2019, I feel that the democrats of that day were quite unwise: “I didn’t realize such a big thing at the time.”

In recent years, Marvel Studios has begun to touch on the concept of "multiverse", which means that a small choice is different and has the opportunity to change the direction of things and create another parallel universe.

Tian Beijun took this as an example to analyze "what if" (if) the political reform was passed on that day, and how things would go: "In 2017, the chief executive has universal suffrage - even if it is not perfect, at least it has the authorization of public opinion, and it is not necessarily Lin who is elected. Zheng, it could be Tsang Junhua. Ah John (John Tsang) will definitely not insist on amending the bill to hand over to Chen Tongjia. There are many other ways. Even if the amendment is assumed to be Beijing's will, he knows how to say no to the central government and express Hong Kong Even if Tsang Chun-wah failed to enter the gate in 2017, and Carrie Lam will continue to be elected, but she bears the public opinion of millions of voters, and the factors for considering the issue are definitely different, and she will be more on the side of the public.”

"Whether universal suffrage will no longer matter in the future"

Tian Beijun pointed out that he could not determine the reason why the pan-democrats did not accept the political reform that day. He hoped that it was not influenced by foreign forces: "But when I discussed with the British and American consuls at the time, they all supported the political reform. It is better to take a step forward than not." In fact, At that time, the democrats were under pressure from the newly emerging local factions and radical factions, such as emerging leaders such as Huang Zhifeng, etc., and the appeal of the pan-democrats was very strong.

However, Tian Beijun retorted: "If (Pan-Democrats) dare not support because of their own internal struggles and fear of being sniped by young people, it would be even more unwise, because that (2015 political reform) is for the good of Hong Kong." He pointed to young people They are energetic, but their ideas must be naive, and they do not understand realistic political operations. As a mature political party, it is the responsibility of a mature political party to withstand pressure and make some difficult decisions.

President Xi Jinping recently said that the new electoral system must be "persistent for a long time", and the political world is concerned about whether it will play a role in the political reform.

However, Tian Beijun did not hesitate to say that it is irrelevant to talk about political reform and universal suffrage today, because after various events from 2019 to the present, the days when the central government trusted the SAR and the semi-open electoral system are gone forever, and the district councils, the most popularly elected members, will disappear at any time. or significant structural changes.

Even if the basic law promises universal suffrage in the future, what will evolve will be universal suffrage within the framework of the new electoral system, that is, a political review mechanism, high threshold nomination, and a narrow electoral base for the election committee. In short, the high safety factor comes first. The opportunity for citizens to participate is low, and it is far from the ideal of universal suffrage by the general public: "There is no difference between universal suffrage or not. Since (the political system) has reversed, it can be seen that it will not change in the future. I don't believe (the electors of the election committee). Basic) now 8,000 people, and in the future it will return to (before the restructuring) more than 200,000 people.”

I don't even want to listen to my brother's speech.

Of course, there is no such thing as history. If Marvel characters create an unacceptable "time branch", they will also be captured by the time special police.

In the "sacred time line" that everyone is currently experiencing, the central government has lost confidence in Hong Kong, and people's hearts will be difficult to repair in the short term. For the new government to take office, if it wants to "open a new chapter", it will always need to clean up the legacy left over from the past few years. Endgame.

"The answer is never to return. Just like I am 75 years old this year, it is impossible to return to the past when I was 50 years old. I skied down the mountain in a few seconds. The good times are gone and never come back." Tian Beijun said with a smile.

Tian pointed out that the safety factor of the new election system is high, but the side effect is that the participation of citizens is greatly reduced, the citizens no longer care about affairs, and the chief executive lacks credibility.

He jokingly pointed out that he has read less political news in recent years, and he is not interested in listening to the content of the Legislative Council meeting, even the speech of his younger brother Tian Beichen, because the overall situation has been decided.

He has been in the political arena for decades, and he still has this idea, even more so for ordinary citizens.

Tian Beijun continued to point out that in the "depoliticized" Hong Kong in the future, most of the government's resistance to governance has disappeared, but citizens' investment is low, and people's livelihood policies will encounter another kind of difficulty.

"Political leaders are unpopular. No matter what policy you do, the public will scold you and not cooperate with you. This will be the case after Li Jiachao takes office." But at the same time, the outside world will question why the Legislative Council has " All patriots", there are still some things that can't be done well.

"This is a two-level question. The first is whether you can do it (to resolve the deep-seated contradictions in people's livelihood); the second is if you can do it, will the citizens be satisfied with the government because of this? In case you can't do it. , how do you explain it to the public? The government should be 'sunshine all day', is it the most powerful period?"

Regarding the success or failure of the above-mentioned "patriotic governance of Hong Kong", Tian Beijun said that it would not be too early to draw conclusions: "Let's wait and see."

The influence of the local big sand is not what it used to be, but Ning acts in a low-key manner

Looking at the world, Tian Beijun believes that the pattern of Western countries containing China's development and using Hong Kong to put pressure on China will not be reversed. Standing in the global situation after 25 years of reunification, Hong Kong people have no choice, since the governance model has taken the lead in "integrating into the overall situation of the country". "The only thing we can do is to fully support the central government's struggle to hold up Western countries, especially the United States.

"The overall situation of the world is changing. After China becomes strong, of course, it believes that its own governance model is the best, and it is impossible to make concessions in contradiction with the value of American-style democracy. China is still in a period of beating, unless the United States is in chaos and prosperous. If it is extremely weak, it will be difficult to fight in the future.” Even from a certain point of view, Tian Beijun felt that the openness of Hong Kong’s “window to the outside world” is not necessarily a good thing for the country, because since the governance model is in line with the mainland , when Western countries deal with China, they will definitely continue to use Hong Kong as a gap.

"Actually, in the eyes of foreign businessmen, Hong Kong is not as different from other first-tier cities in the mainland as it used to be. It is just the 'most correct' mainland city, with landscapes and four seasons."

He also revealed that under this local and international political landscape, the local traditional business community also deeply understands that as the government enters a period of strength and the country's economic power continues to rise, its role in Hong Kong's political map will gradually decline, making it difficult to He has a great influence on governance as he has in the past half century, so he would rather keep a low profile in the future. "Firstly, some of them have foreign passports, which makes it difficult to be a man; secondly, now that the country is prosperous, it is no longer necessary to rely on Hong Kong businessmen for investment as in the early days of reform and opening up. The mainland, in turn, invests in Hong Kong real estate. In the past (former chief executive) Tung Chee-hwa and (former chairman of Chang Wo Department) Li Ka-shing were good friends. When the mayor of the mainland met a wealthy Hong Kong businessman, he always went to the airport to greet him. You left (withdrawal), and he (government) can't stand it."

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25 years younger will not be in politics

Tian Beijun entered the political arena after being appointed as a former Legislative Council member in 1988, and served as a member of the Liberal Party for several terms and the chairman of the Liberal Party on and off until he officially retired in 2016 to focus on his business.

He asked himself that he had accomplished historical tasks in his political career and achieved what he wanted to do. At least in his active years, Hong Kong’s political conflicts did not surface, and the country’s economy was booming. The country is good, Hong Kong is good, and my own net worth has swelled a lot.”

However, he also deeply felt that "one generation does one generation", returning to the early political environment, there is room to be a "peacemaker", but today's situation has changed, "My role has always been to promote harmony, I don't want so many conflicts, and I am willing to be a peacemaker. Everyone deals. But even if I were 25 years younger today, I wouldn’t be in politics, there’s no room for that now.”

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