France election: what do the polls say ahead of the general election?
Created: 06/14/2022, 10:20 am
By: Max Schaefer
The French elections on June 19 will decide whether President Macron will continue to have a majority in Parliament.
What is the current status in polls?
Paris – The general elections in France will take place on June 12th and 19th, 2022.
Only shortly after the presidential election did the French have another opportunity to have a say in the country's future politics.
This time it's not about the head of state, but the 577 deputies in the National Assembly.
But who wins the majority?
Polls before the French elections show a trend.
poll | Parliamentary elections in France |
|---|---|
date | June 12th and 19th |
voting system | majority voting |
number of constituencies | 577 |
Absolute majority | 289 |
France election: who leads in polls before the general election?
As a rule, the party or political alliance of the recently elected president also wins the parliamentary elections.
However, the presidential election in France in 2022 showed the dissatisfaction of many people with Emmanuel Macron, which has existed at least since his reform plans and the yellow vest protests.
For many voters, however, he was the lesser evil than Marine Le Pen.
The left-wing camp wants to exploit the dissatisfaction with the president ahead of the French elections.
Under the leadership of former presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his party La France insoumise, various social democratic, socialist, green and communist parties formed the "Nouvelle Union Populaire écologique et sociale" (New Ecological and Social People's Union), NUPES for short.
According to polls ahead of the French elections, Jean-Luc Mélenchon's left-wing alliance NUPES is contesting Macron's alliance for an absolute majority in parliament.
(Archive image) © Geoffroy van der Hasselt/AFP
Polls ahead of France's general election show a neck-and-neck race
The strong left alliance can lead to a special scenario after the parliamentary elections: If NUPES holds the majority in parliament, the president and prime minister as heads of government do not come from the same camp.
Macron would lose influence domestically.
According to polls before the parliamentary elections, Mélenchon and Co. still have to make gains for the scenario to become reality.
In polls ahead of the French elections on June 12 and 19, 2022, President Macron's supporters and the left are neck and neck.
The movement around La République en Marche reached 26 percent according to a survey by the opinion research institute Harris Interactive on June 7th and is thus in the lead.
According to Harris Interactive, NUPES is in second place with 24 percent.
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France election: changing majorities before the parliamentary elections
In an Ifop poll for the TV station TF1 Info on June 7, however, the left-wing alliance has taken the lead.
At 26 percent, they are one percentage point ahead of the Macron alliance "Ensemble!".
A poll by Elabe on June 1 also sees the left (25 percent) just ahead of the Macron alliance "Ensemble!" (24.5 percent).
The right-wing extremists of the Rassemblement National are in third place in all polls.
The surveys before the parliamentary elections in France at a glance:
party/alliance | Survey Harris interactive | Survey Ifop |
|---|---|---|
Ensemble! | 26% | 25% |
NUPES | 24% | 26% |
Rally National | 20% | 21% |
Republicains | 10% | 11% |
Reconquete | 6% | 5% |
Other | 14% | 12% |
As of June 7th | As of June 7th |
Polls before the French elections: How many seats will the parties get?
However, the French National Assembly is not elected by proportional representation but by majority voting.
People therefore vote in a total of 577 constituencies.
Whoever gets the most votes there in the French elections gets a seat in parliament.
Emmanuel Macron's alliance is looking good in the constituencies.
"Ensemble!" is consistently in first place.
However, it is uncertain whether the absolute majority of 289 seats will be achieved.
Only the survey by Harris Interactive predicts "Ensemble!" at best 335 seats and thus again a strong majority.
Ifop predicts 250 to a maximum of 290 seats for the Macron alliance after the French election.
At best, the Liberals get one seat more than the absolute majority.
Polls before the French elections: liberals with majority, leftists win
NUPES is by far in second place.
While the left cannot pose a threat to Macron supporters, according to Harris interactive, according to the Ifop forecast, they are getting closer and closer to the Liberals with a maximum of 230 seats.
party/alliance | Seats according to Harris Interactive | Sit according to ifop |
|---|---|---|
ensemble | 285-335 | 250-290 |
NUPES | 120-184 | 195-230 |
Rally National | 30-50 | 20-45 |
Republicains | 38-58 | 40-55 |
Other | 6-22 | 10-22 |
As of June 7th | As of June 7th |
Compared to the 2017 election, the Rassemblement National gains more mandates.
However, given the 20% and 21% polling intent polls, the far right fares relatively poorly with 30-50 and 20-45 seats respectively.
The Republicans, despite only 10 or 11 percent, could have more representatives in the National Assembly.
France election: When will there be forecasts and projections?
The first forecasts and projections for the parliamentary elections in France will be available after the polling stations have closed, when the first constituencies have also been counted.
Due to the required majority, however, the decision in most constituencies will not be made until the runoff on June 19.
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