The worst is never certain.
After the decline in the French economy in the first quarter caused by the war in Ukraine and the confinement in China, French activity has shown “
resilience
” since April, notes the Banque de France in its monthly economic report published on Tuesday.
This means "
that we will not have a recession in the French economy
" at the end of the second quarter, specifies Olivier Garnier, its director of statistics.
Technically, a country goes into recession if its growth is down for two consecutive quarters.
Only here, after a timid increase in activity in April,
“GDP should progress more markedly in May, due to a rebound in industry and especially in services.
According to the first indications, activity will increase again slightly in June,
” estimates the Banque de France, counting on an increase – however very timid – in GDP of 0.25% between April and June.
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This resilience of companies, in a very uncertain economic context, with soaring raw material costs and growing pressure on wages, does not fail to surprise.
According to the research firm Xerfi, which published a note on the economy the same day, 63% of business leaders “
still expect stability over the rest of the year
”.
However, "
business margins will find themselves caught in a vice between dangerously increasing costs and crumbling volume prospects in a growing number of sectors.
“warned the cabinet.
For his part, the president of the CPME, François Asselin, warned that the level of business failures was likely to rise in the coming months.
With the end of the massive emergency aid put in place to deal with the coronavirus crisis, "
we will have to expect an increase in the loss ratio
", indicated the president, during a meeting organized by the Association of Journalists of Small and Medium Enterprises (AJPME).
And to clarify: “
What is going to happen is normal even if it is dramatic.
»