According to Western secret services, the Ukraine war is now at a turning point: These scenarios are possible
Created: 06/15/2022, 14:04
By: Momir Takac
A Ukrainian soldier in Sievjerodonetsk: Western intelligence services see the war at a turning point.
© Oleksandr Ratushniak / picture alliance
Western intelligence services see the Ukraine war at a turning point.
They outline three scenarios for the further course of the escalated conflict.
Kyiv/Washington - The Ukraine conflict has been raging for almost four months now.
Recently there have been gloomy forecasts as to the duration of the hostilities.
For example, NATO is expecting a war that will last for months.
While a former US general firmly believes in a military victory for Ukraine, there are increasing numbers of people who see at least a turning point.
So does Western intelligence.
Ukraine News: NATO sees war in critical phase
So does Western intelligence.
Military officials and intelligence officials believe the war is at a critical juncture that could determine the length of hostilities, writes
CNN
.
"I think you're getting close to the point where one side or the other will be successful," a senior NATO official was quoted as saying.
"Either the Russians will reach Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, or the Ukrainians will stop them here," it said.
The two cities apparently rate the secret services as key locations for Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin.
They outline three possible scenarios.
War in Ukraine: Western secret services outline scenarios
The decisive factor is whether Russia can achieve success in the fiercely contested cities of Sievjerodonetsk and Lyssychansk, which are around 80 kilometers to the east.
If Putin's troops fail to do so and there is a stalemate, fighting could continue for months or even years.
The consequences would probably be considerable losses on both sides and a serious strain on the global economy.
In that case, what would happen is what senior officials consider the most unlikely scenario, according to intelligence sources: Russia redefines its war aims, announces victory in Ukraine, and ends the fighting.
Ukraine war: Western secret services fear that Putin could conquer more parts
Another scenario is more likely to happen: Russia manages, as has already largely happened in Sievjerodonetsk, to bring other areas in the Donbass under control.
If so, US officials fear that Putin could use the territory he has gained as a base to conquer more parts of Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj, who has called for modern missile defense systems from the West, also fears this.
"I'm sure if Ukraine isn't strong enough, they will go further," he said Tuesday of Russian troops.
(mt)
