Special envoy to Constanta (Romania) and Chisinau (Moldova)
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War is near here.
It even takes place on the other side of the border of Romania and Moldova, where Emmanuel Macron went successively on Tuesday and Wednesday.
In the first country, France has reinforced its military presence within the framework of NATO.
In the second, affected in the first line by the humanitarian and economic consequences of the conflict, the Head of State once again recalled his concern in the face of a "
threat to our stability to all"
.
Moldova benefits from support from France and the European Union.
Thanks to aid of 40 million euros allocated by the European Defense Fund, Moldova will be able to double its budget allocated to its army.
But that's not enough to reassure her.
Like Ukraine and Georgia, it has submitted a request to be a candidate for membership of the European Union, and join a small club which notably includes the states of the Western Balkans.
The Commission is due to deliver an opinion this week and the European Council to decide at the summit on June 24 and 25.
"
The context of the war makes us consider the moment differently
," admitted the French head of state on the doorstep of the presidential residence in Chisinau, alongside his counterpart, Maia Sandu.
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Listened to in Moldova, Emmanuel Macron is even more so in Ukraine.
At the steps of Europe and while the rumors evoke it with insistence, Emmanuel Macron has confirmed in half a word an upcoming trip to this capital.
He was one of the few Western officials not to have visited Kiev since the Russian invasion on February 24, claiming to wait for a "
useful
" moment.
The moment seems imminent.
"
We are in the process of converging to have discussions of a new nature with Ukraine
", declared Wednesday morning in Romania the head of state on the tarmac of the airport of Mihail Kogalniceanu, after reviewing the troops from the base.
"
We need to send clear political signals to Ukraine
," he said.
"
At the gates of our European Union, an unprecedented geopolitical situation is playing out.
So, yes, the political context and the decisions that the European Union and several nations will have to take warrant further in-depth discussions and further progress
,” he said.
“A positive and clear message”
While Russia is nibbling ground in the Donbass, the Ukrainians expect continued military aid that will enable them to resist the offensive.
But Volodymyr Zelensky also hopes for a political gesture to recognize Ukraine as a candidate.
"
We must not dissociate Moldova and Ukraine in the circumstances we know
," explained Emmanuel Macron, questioned several times about his position.
He said he wanted the Europeans to send "
a positive and clear message
" to Moldova.
France ensuring the presidency of the European Union until the end of the month, Emmanuel Macron prudently avoided saying more.
He assured that he was working towards a consensus among the 27. That is why he stressed that the answer will be "
subject to conditions
”.
An accession of Ukraine, or of Moldova, is not conceivable before many years, even decades.
This is why Emmanuel Macron continues to push his idea of a "
European political community
" (EPC) which could bring together states on the margins of Europe, some having left it, and respond to the immediate questions of stability that could arise.
It is not a substitute for membership, he assured.
The CPE aims to “
complete
” the accession procedure, and to build solidarity between the Union and neighboring states.
"
There must be a pillar of defense and security
," insisted the head of state.
But this CPE would not offer guarantees of automatic protection against aggression.
“
It is not realistic for it to be of the same nature as Article 5
of the Atlantic Alliance Treaty.
In practice, the concrete modalities of the CPE remain to be defined.
But those around the Head of State believe that the crisis Europe is going through should be an opportunity to rebuild a security architecture.
When we have helped Ukraine to resist as much as possible, when - I hope - Ukraine will have won (...), we will have to negotiate, the Ukrainian president and his leaders will have to negotiate with Russia
Emmanuel Macron
Next to Emmanuel Macron, the Moldovan President, Maia Sandu, is ready to study the proposal.
But she repeats that her small country of less than 3 million inhabitants is eager to embark on the path to Europe.
The frozen conflict in Transnistria, a small region in the east of the country controlled by a pro-Russian separatist regime, obviously constitutes an obstacle to a possible process.
The Moldovan president hopes that the European perspective will serve as a lever to resolve or ease tensions.
In the meantime, she assures us that Russia is not seeking to use its 1,500 or so military forces present in Transnistria for the benefit of the war in Ukraine.
"
The situation is calm and there is no immediate danger
," she said.
The recent "
explosions
that happened there “
have an internal origin
,” she says.
On the French side, we share the same analysis.
The prorussians would have stored their enthusiasm to prevent the situation from degenerating to their disadvantage.
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In Ukraine, on the other hand, the situation is still just as difficult for soldiers who are relying on Western military aid to hold on and on their morale.
Only 10% of the aid promised by Westerners would have reached them.
On the French side, a military source ensures that everything that was to be delivered has been delivered, including logistical support capabilities.
But Emmanuel Macron's remarks refusing
to "humiliate
" Russia have raised questions about French support.
The president assumes them.
"
At some point, when we have helped Ukraine to resist as much as possible, when - I hope - Ukraine will have won and above all when the fire can stop, we will have to negotiate, the Ukrainian president and his leaders will have to negotiate with Russia
,” he said.
"
The only desirable outcome of the conflict is either a military victory for Ukraine or, at some point, a discussion, because the fire will have ceased which allows an agreement between Ukraine and Russia
,” he explained.
Formulated at the borders of Europe, these positions must be explained and understood in Ukraine.