From Dream to Reality | Israel today

The question that resonated this week throughout the Knesset, in the offices of almost all the MKs, in the buffet and in the corridor talks was - what does Nir Orbach want? The right-wing MK, who announced this week that he is not part of the coalition Capture himself in limbo - neither here nor there.

Proponents of her case have been working to make the actual transcript of this statement available online.

On Monday, Gideon Saar will bring the law to the Judea and Samaria regulations for a vote. If he does not pass, the route to dissolve the Knesset will enter the fast lane. For herself a few more months, maybe until after the break.

There is a big gap between the act of Idit Silman who resigned from the coalition (and also of Amichai Shikli before her) and that of Orbach.

Silman chose to present her move as an ideological choice.

Orbach's move is more akin to a 90s NRP deal. An attempt to close with the Likud, without a final cut from the coalition. To dismantle the business for Bennett, but to try to leave him an outstretched hand. .

The fourth conversation between Auerbach and Bennett since the failure to pass the Judea and Samaria regulations in the Knesset plenum was the most difficult of all. Bennett, who tried to persuade Orbach to show a little more patience and allow him to try to stabilize the ship, lost patience. From his excavations, he later told his associates.

"You say the condition of the government is unsettled," he shouted at Orbach, "but it is mostly your fault! You are the one who undermines it!"

The call ended in an explosion.

Bennett did not know about the letter Orbach would publish shortly afterwards, in which he announced his resignation from the coalition, at least for the next week.

Bennett also waved in conversation at his upcoming visit to Biden.

This is a very sensitive political event, especially for the right-wing public.

So far, Israel has "paid" for the visit to stop the demolition of the house of the terrorist who carried out the attack in Tel Aviv, a significant increase in the building permits in Israel by Arabs from the territories, to stop all planning procedures in E-1. Jerusalem, in Bethlehem, and probably also a declaration of the need to stop the settlers' violence.

"Can you imagine what would happen if Lapid were prime minister at the time of the visit," Bennett slammed Auerbach, "he will flow with every American demand. It's literally acting against the right-wing interest."

Bennett tried to extract from Orbach a statement that he would not be the one to support the dissolution of the Knesset, but the Knesset member did not respond.

In his ordeal, Bennett tried to make a commitment out of him that even if he supported the law, he would text his promotion to the Knesset committee headed by him until after Biden's visit.

Orbach did not respond to this either.

Orbach was later sharply attacked on the right: "Because of a mortgage he took out to build his new two-story house in Petah Tikva, which makes him hesitate and afraid to make decisions about his fate, 80 right-wing MKs in the current Knesset may see Lapid accept Biden, for all that that implies ".

Like walking in a minefield

Despite the development that is improving with their situation, the Likud has expressed considerable concern that even all the stones falling from the coalition construction will not benefit the overthrow of the government during the few weeks remaining until the end of the summer session and the Knesset going into recess.

In order for the government to fall definitively, active action is needed, such as passing a law to dissolve the Knesset.

Aside from the question mark hovering over Orbach on this issue, they do not know for sure how the members of the joint list voted.

Ahmad Tibi, Ayman Odeh and their friends are publicly announcing the joint list that they will vote for.

But who knows what they will do in real time.

The coalition's campaign that the overthrow of the government means Netanyahu's rise may affect them.

For the time being it is common to say that they will vote unequivocally in favor of dissolving the Knesset, not only in the preliminary reading but also in all subsequent readings up to the third and final reading.

We are committed to overthrowing the government, says Tibi, and if the coalition fears that this will lead to a rise in Bibi - they will bring to a vote the defendant's laws that will prevent him from forming a coalition, and we will support.

Under normal circumstances, there was no need for 61 members to dissolve the Knesset, and the person who initiated the dissolution was the government itself, after its leader had come to know that it had ceased to function.

Many prime ministers have done so, but in the current government the shame has been lost.

Despite the humiliations every day in the plenum, they continue.

Yair Lapid seems even more determined and uninhibited than Bennett on this issue.

The prime minister is already beginning to feel the distress.

The ridicule that the government absorbs, both in the media, also from the commentators who did everything to keep the government.

But Bennett can not dismantle himself, otherwise he will lose the transitional prime minister.

Independent.

MK Tibi, Photo: Oren Ben Hakon

Lapid, on the other hand, seems to have lost all control.

The feeling is that everything, but everything, can be sacrificed on the altar of the coalition's stability.

Even if hundreds of millions have to be paid to every rebellious MK for that.

Ensure political appointments, in the civil service, in the foreign service, in government companies.

Collaborate with the extremists on the joint list.

No problem, just show him where to sign.

After one of the meetings with Auerbach, people around Bennett said that the prime minister told the Knesset member that he intended to act to remove MKs Rinawi Zoabi and Mazen Ghanaim in order to stabilize the coalition.

Upon hearing this, one of the senior members of the right approached one of Bennett's immediate surroundings and asked in bewilderment how such a sentence could be said, which would only fortify the two in their refusal to resign.

Will they agree to leave the Knesset just to please Nir Orbach?

He wondered in the senior man's ears.

The insider smiled and asked back: Who said we want them fired?

The tie-dyed and gentlemanly battle for the transitional prime minister is currently being waged with winks and bites.

Everyone is trying to overthrow the government through MKs associated with the other side, and this without making the struggle public and overt and provoking the anger of his colleague.

Lapid would very much like whoever pressed the button to overthrow the government to be Orbach.

Bennett would like these to be sullen and despicable.

The big question, which has not been answered so far, is what Gideon Saar wants.

Elkin begins to sew

Under coalition agreements, Saar is associated with Bennett's camp.

That is, if he or any of his people vote in favor of dissolving the Knesset in a final reading and the government falls, Lapid will be appointed Prime Minister of the transition at that moment.

Allegedly, Saar is supposed to prefer Bennett as prime minister, and not allow Lapid to reach the position, due to the common political camp to which they belong.

But only ostensibly.

The one who is most afraid of Saar's choice is Bennett himself, who has been discussing this with his men in recent days.

If there is an election, contacts will begin between the right and a new hope for unifying the lists.

The two parties separately will have a hard time getting through the blocking percentage.

Bennett fears that such a union would open up the question of who is at the helm.

For him, granting the lead to Saar does not exist, but to ensure this he must remain prime minister.

Since the government began to be undermined, negotiations between the Likud and Saar on the formation of a government in the current Knesset, headed by Netanyahu, have also melted.

The head of the opposition realized that there was no need for high prices to expedite the dissolution of the coalition, Saar realized that he was being spread and began attacking the Likud and renewing the public statement that he would not sit under Netanyahu.

But the right-wing government scenario also exists.

In order to carry it out, the Knesset must be on the verge of dispersal - similar to Shaul Mofaz's entry into the Netanyahu government minutes before the Knesset dispersed on third reading.

The person who was the architect of that agreement, Zeev Elkin, is weaving the threads these days towards another possible agreement.

Then he worked for Netanyahu, today he does it on behalf of Saar.

If there are two points with the shortest path between them being a straight line connecting, Elkin will always choose the most winding and complicated path.

Even before the last election, and long before anyone knew what the results would be, Elkin devised the direction that would lead to the formation of a change government, which would leave Netanyahu out.

While everyone was preparing for the battle for the mandate, ie who will receive the first mandate from the president to form a government, Elkin stated that the formation of a government that would connect the right and the left and bypass the entire Netanyahu bloc must go through the Likud chairman's failure to form a government. The mandate, the people on the right and a new hope can explain why they joined Yesh Atid, Meretz and Ram.

The system succeeded almost one-on-one, because in Elkin's plan there was a new hope should end the election greater on the right, which would have crowned Saar the prime minister.

There is room for everyone

The method this time is quite similar.

Saar, and certainly Bennett, will not give Netanyahu power over the silver platter.

But what we see now, when the government is still alive and well, is not what they will see when the sword of elections is lifted.

As the political future is shrouded in mist and the danger of disappearing from the landscape increases, so does flexibility.

Netanyahu is not building on this scenario, but will not rule it out if he comes to the conclusion that he can lead a stable government.

In any other scenario he would prefer elections.

In the polls, the Likud rose to 36 seats, which brings the color back to the cheeks of all Knesset members, who can sleep well at night.

The chair in the next Knesset is guaranteed to them.

In the national list, which the incumbent Knesset members can run on, there is room for almost everyone.

And whoever does not enter at first, will wait a little and enter within the framework of Norwegian law.

Under such conditions, Netanyahu has no reason to fight for the cancellation of the primaries, so it is estimated that this time, with very high certainty, they will indeed take place.

Efforts to obtain armor, a move that is often accompanied by struggles that stem mainly from pressure on Knesset members who fear for their status, are not expected to encounter special difficulties this time.

This is good news for Silman, and Orbach, if he finally decides to cut Bennett, and also for Amichai Shikli, in case his retirement can be reversed through the court or through legislation. 

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