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U.S. interest rate hike|Scholars expect the property market to be hit first in the second half of the economic recession: not making money equals making money

2022-06-16T11:58:14.559Z


U.S. inflation rose to its highest level in 40 years, stocks tumbled, and the Federal Reserve announced a 0.75-mile rate hike, a 30-year high. Economists in Hong Kong all said that the US interest rate hike does have an impact on the real estate industry and property buyers


U.S. inflation rose to its highest level in 40 years, stocks tumbled, and the Federal Reserve announced a 0.75-mile rate hike, a 30-year high.

Economists in Hong Kong all said that the US interest rate hike does have an impact on the real estate industry and property buyers.

However, Chong Tailiang, an associate professor of the Department of Economics at CUHK, is optimistic, pointing out that the "flooding" of Hong Kong's banks is also affected by mainland investors, and he believes that the impact on the overall economy will not be significant.

Kwan Cheuk-zhao, director of the Centre for Business and Economics Research, holds the opposite opinion. He expects that Hong Kong's economy may fall into recession early in the second half of the year, and advises the public to "don't do anything well, hold on to the money" and wait until the time is right before investing again.


The aggregate balance of the HKMA banking system fell to 100 billion yuan as soon as September

Zhuang Tailiang, an associate professor of the Department of Economics at CUHK, said that the interest rate hike in the United States will have a greater impact on the people who use the H mortgage to buy a property, and the buyers who choose the P mortgage have not yet emerged.

He pointed out that the aggregate balance of the banking system of the HKMA is about 300 billion yuan. When it reaches 100 billion yuan, it is necessary to consider raising interest rates. At that time, the buyers of the P-press will be affected, and it is estimated that it will happen in September or October at the earliest.

Interest rates may not be affected by U.S. interest rate hikes as banks "flood"

Zhuang also emphasized that the interest rate set by the policy is not equal to the market interest rate. For example, from 2014 to 2016, the United States raised interest rates nine times, but due to the "flooding" of Hong Kong banks, it is still unaffected.

He also believes that Hong Kong is now like the situation after SARS in 2003. As long as "inflation outperforms interest rate hikes", the property market will not fall due to interest rate hikes.

Zhuang believes that the transaction volume of Hong Kong's property market is stable every year. As long as the economy maintains normal, the public will continue to buy properties. "Hong Kong people are so rich, they can't afford to buy millions of properties by borrowing." Taking the stock market as an example, he pointed out that transactions come from In different places, the United States only accounts for a part of it.

Although it may affect the wishes of local investors, the impact on the overall economy is not large, and it depends on the situation in countries such as the Mainland.

▼Long queue of job seekers at the job fair on June 8▼


+6

Zhuang Tailiang commented on Hong Kong stocks: No matter how bad the United States is, Hong Kong is still at a low level

But when will the U.S. rate hike cycle end?

Zhuang believes that it depends on whether US inflation can be controlled. If it rises to 8.6, interest rates can be cut in as soon as two years.

Another worst-case scenario is that high interest rates will lead to a recession in the U.S. economy, turning inflation into deflation, and the global economy will be hit by that time.

Zhuang suggested that the public should hedge the dollar on a regular basis, or buy more stable stocks, such as bank stocks, highway stocks, and high-yield stocks.

He further inferred that although US stocks have fallen by about one-third from their highs, Hong Kong stocks have hit lows, and believes that "no matter how bad the US is, Hong Kong is still at a low level."

Hong Kong's economy will face strong "headwinds"

Guan Zhuozhao, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research, said that if the U.S. rate hikes too much will cause the economy to shrink, Hong Kong people will not be happy to see it.

At the same time, the U.S. economic system is global, and "one hair can affect the whole body." Hong Kong is also difficult to avoid alone, which will bring difficulties to the economic recovery.

Kwan also mentioned that due to the increased burden of housing residents, other living expenses will be reduced, which will also affect Hong Kong's economic performance in disguise.

As for the deteriorating business environment, corporate profits may decrease, layoffs and salary cuts may be possible, and even drag down the performance of the stock market.

He expects that the Hong Kong economy will usher in a strong "headwind" in the next few quarters, and may fall into recession early in the second half of the year.

▼ June 6th.

Excellent products are closed across the board▼


+6

Guan Zhuo Zhao: Don't make money equal to earning

Guan suggested that the public should save money and keep cash to wait for the economy to recover in the future. Not laundering old money means making money.”

Guan also advised the public not to buy gold and other commodities. If you hold risky stocks or commodities, you should leave early. "Gold is not running, and it will fall relative to the U.S. dollar." As for stocks that pay dividends or safety, you can continue Hold, he appealed that if people's jobs are stable, they can wait for the asset market to adjust and the time is right before investing: "I won't underperform inflation, I'll wait for the next one. I'll be surprised if I go to the U.S., and then it will hit the bottom."

▼On June 14, Jumbo Seafood Boat was moved out of Hong Kong▼


+17

Chen Maobo: Hong Kong may enter a gradual increase in interest rate asset market risks cannot be ignored [US interest rate hike] is expected to affect the value of re-exports through Hong Kong reaching 134.5 billion Hong Kong government research to increase the amount of loans Liang Zhijian commented that the rate of interest rate hike in Hong Kong is moderate and refers to at least 10%. Property prices [US interest rate hike] Analysis of the increasing burden of housing supply: HOS has become more popular

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2022-06-16

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