This is bad news that took shape overnight from Wednesday to Thursday.
According to the calculations of the meteorological models of Météo France, the heat wave could settle in France for a longer period than initially announced.
It could last until early next week, at least in part of the country.
Since the start of the current week, temperatures have been getting higher and higher in an increasingly large area of the country.
Records for this period of June have already been broken.
The origin of this situation is a cold drop located in the south-west of France.
It is a small depression and a mass of cool air isolated in the middle of a much larger mass of warm air.
As it rolls up, this disturbance acts as a heat pump and causes hot air to rise from the Sahara.
Read alsoHeat wave: what to do (or not!) in the face of the heat
The presence of these desert temperatures is expected to be prolonged.
Initially, thunderstorms arriving from Saturday evening and especially Sunday were to put an end to this situation.
The latest data available since last night, more recent and therefore more reliable, reject this possibility.
Gaëtan Heymes, forecaster at Météo France, explains, with supporting maps, that “the end of this heat wave is increasingly delayed”.
Absolute temperature records in June
He evokes days from Sunday to Monday which could be much warmer than announced.
To draw up this observation, he relies on an index of probability of extreme phenomena called EFI, the color of which turns increasingly red for these two days.
The end of this heat wave is increasingly delayed.
Compared to this morning (left), the EFI this evening (right) frankly blushed for the days of Sunday (high) and Monday (low).
pic.twitter.com/SnL8XNFOYN
— Gaétan Heymes (@GaetanHeymes) June 15, 2022
François Jobard, meteorologist at Météo France, agrees.
Taking up the temperature forecast maps that the organization released on Thursday afternoon, he says that “Météo France warned against
a very intense heat wave lasting at least 5 days
.
This morning, the very hot weather is prolonged on the models, especially in the South and East, and the heat wave could last until Tuesday (nationally)”.
Some models would even now expect Wednesday in the east of the country.
Yesterday @meteofrance warned of a "very intense heat wave lasting at least 5 days".
This morning, very hot weather is prolonged on the models, especially in the south and east, and the heat wave could last until Tuesday (nationally) #heat wave https://t.co/ iAHkYfWhxa
– Francois Jobard (@Francois_Jobard) June 16, 2022
Météo France has also readjusted its forecast maps.
The storms and the sharp drop in temperatures expected on Sunday were followed by a map with sunshine over almost the entire territory.
From Picardy to the Rhône Valley and from Alsace to Occitania, temperatures should oscillate, at least, between 30°C and 36°C, or even more locally.
Up to ten degrees cooler were initially expected.
Thunderstorms could form in the night from Sunday to Monday, but without reaching the East and the South.
/Meteo France
In the current state and depending on the progression of rains and thunderstorms, a return to seasonal temperatures would gradually occur, from west to east, from Tuesday and Wednesday next week.
Until then, Météo France warns that "absolute records" are likely to be broken as the summer season is just beginning.
#VagueDeChaleur very intense and of unprecedented precocity in progress.
Update on the maximum expected for the next 4 days.
Values very often exceeding the June records, sometimes on the order of absolute records.
Extension of #heat wave vigilance to follow this afternoon.
pic.twitter.com/uPVRJGd80k
— VigiMeteoFrance (@VigiMeteoFrance) June 16, 2022
For the moment, Saturday remains expected as the hottest day with a maximum of regions concerned.
Peaks above 40°C are feared over a large part of France.
François Jobard warns: “Paris has never exceeded 35°C before a summer solstice in 150 years of measurements.
There, we are looking for what would allow us to avoid reaching 40°C in the capital on June 18.
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