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What to expect from Olaf Scholz, Emmanuel Macron and Mario Draghi's trip to Ukraine?

2022-06-16T06:33:30.987Z


After a long wait, the German chancellor, the French president and the Italian prime minister travel to Kyiv together. It could be an impressive gesture - provided the heads of state bring concrete proposals.


Enlarge image

Prime Ministers Mario Draghi, Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron on the way to a state visit to Ukraine

Photo: Filippo Attili / picture alliance / ZUMA Press

They were seen as hesitant, as those who waited forever, as refusers.

For weeks, Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz had rejected a visit to Kyiv with rare unanimity.

Macron said in the middle of the French election campaign that he would only go to Ukraine if such a trip was really "useful".

Scholz told critics who accused him of not putting his "turning point" speech into action.

The list of German Kyiv tourists was long and ranged from Friedrich Merz to Anton Hofreiter.

But now Macron and Scholz, together with the Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, could give the international public the best photo opportunity in weeks - an agreed joint trip to Kyiv.

The politicians are due to arrive in the Ukrainian capital in the morning.

The fact that the three of them actually visit the war country after a long hesitation could become a big gesture.

It was far too late to go it alone;

as the last in their class, every single one of them would have made a fool of themselves in Kyiv and in their own homeland.

But now the three heads of government will meet with President Volodymyr Zelenky in Kyiv later today.

That would be a late but powerful signal.

Scholz, Macron and Draghi represent the three largest countries in the EU and, with around 210 million inhabitants, almost half of their population.

As founding members, their countries began the European unification process more than 70 years ago.

So the casting is right.

The question now is how the joint journey can become a success.

For as much as the old Western Europe was rhetorically strong at the beginning of Putin's war of aggression, it then acted cautiously and cautiously - while many Eastern Europeans supported Ukraine with clear words and deeds.

The journey of Scholz, Macron and Draghi can only become historic if the three offer Ukraine clear prospects.

But what are the interests of France and Italy, and to what extent do they correspond to Olaf Scholz's policies?

A joint trip by the three heads of government had been discussed behind the scenes in Berlin, Paris and Rome for some time.

It became more concrete on Wednesday last week when Draghi and Macron met in Paris.

A three-and-a-half-hour working lunch at the Élysée Palace also focused on reconciling the French President's cautious plans for Ukraine with the Italian Prime Minister's more ambitious plans.

By Thursday morning, the Élysée had rejected all journalists' inquiries about the trip and stubbornly denied all reports that Macron was traveling to Kyiv at all.

The French President only left for a planned two-day trip to Romania and Moldova on Tuesday evening.

At a NATO base in south-eastern Romania, he told French soldiers on Wednesday that it was now time to "send clear political signals" to Ukraine as the EU.

It remained unclear which signals these could be.

So far, France has been skeptical about Ukraine's EU eligibility, even if it does not fundamentally reject the country's candidate status.

But one has to remain honest, it is said in Paris, an accession process would take years, if not decades.

Macron therefore proposed the establishment of a “European political community” in the Strasbourg parliament in May, which could include Great Britain and Moldova in addition to Ukraine.

France proposes a new European political community

In Moldova he renewed this proposal on Wednesday afternoon: France will positively support Moldova's application to join the EU, he said at a joint press conference with Prime Minister Maia Sandu.

Macron then suggested working together at a different level during the lengthy accession process - in a "European, political community" in which countries sharing a common geography and common values ​​could come together.

According to Macron, this should not be a substitute for EU membership, but would speed up cooperation between the countries - on political issues, on energy issues and also on security policy.

Enlarging the EU cannot be the only answer to the question of how to create stability among European neighbors, Macron said.

The proposal for such a community corresponds to his belief that Europe needs a new security architecture, Macron said.

And immediately added that he naturally did not want to replace NATO with such an alliance.

The French President has become cautious, and there is still an election campaign in France: in the second round of the parliamentary elections next Sunday, it will be decided whether or not Macron will achieve an absolute majority in the Assemblée Nationale.

Every wrong word weighs heavily.

In a cautious about-face last week, the French government distanced itself more from Russia and moved closer to Ukraine.

Of course, one would like Ukraine to win this war, it said after a phone call between Selenskyj and Macron in the Élysée on Friday.

The President had previously warned that a solution must be sought that would not humiliate Russian President Putin, for which the Ukrainian President severely criticized him.

It remains questionable to what extent Macron coordinated his proposal for a new political community in Europe with Germany and Italy.

In Rome it is said that one would like to understand better what exactly is meant by that.

That doesn't necessarily sound like a closed front.

Meanwhile, Draghi has been campaigning for Ukraine's speedy EU accession for a long time.

Europe has overcome the trauma of World War II through ever deeper integration, he said in May.

“We mustn't gamble away this legacy.” Now the moment has come to move this project forward.

For the Italian prime minister, this means in concrete terms that EU enlargement will be accelerated.

"We want Ukraine in the European Union." The usual procedures should be followed, Draghi said.

But: »We have to get on with it as quickly as possible.«

From the start, the former President of the European Central Bank took a more decisive line than Scholz and Macron.

Unlike his allies, Draghi did not cast doubt that Ukrainian soldiers would not be able to master Western military technology or would find it difficult to learn.

He did not question that Ukraine can win the war.

And he also made it clear, unlike his German and French partners, that he did not believe in active telephone diplomacy with Putin.

The Ukrainian President praised Draghi while repeatedly criticizing Berlin and Paris for their hesitation.

Italy supported Ukraine politically and with arms, Zelensky said.

»In the war between Russia and Ukraine, Italy very clearly sided with us.«

From Draghi's point of view, further clear gestures towards Moscow should now follow.

He fears that Russia could increasingly infiltrate the Balkans.

Accession negotiations should therefore also be started immediately with Albania and North Macedonia.

New impetus is needed for the talks with Serbia and Montenegro, and one must also take care of the legitimate expectations of Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo.

"We support the accession of all these countries."

But in Kyiv, the focus is now on the future of Ukraine and the consequences of the war.

The three heads of government from Western Europe are unlikely to find a solution to the grain problem either, even if France announced days ago that it was ready to take part in an operation to lift the blockade of the port of Odessa.

They now seem to be relying more on the negotiations of the United Nations and further attempts at mediation by Turkey.

Should the naval blockade in the Black Sea be ended, the three Europeans could provide military aid in mine clearance.

It is also uncertain whether the three heads of state will make binding commitments to Kiev's new weapons demands.

Italy, at least, has managed to keep the scope and content of its arms deliveries largely secret over the past few months, for security reasons, as Rome says.

On Wednesday evening, US President Joe Biden announced new arms sales to Ukraine worth billions.

Yesterday, people close to Macron also said that "the delivery of heavy weapons is planned," the magazine "Politico" quoted a French diplomat as saying this morning.

Source: spiegel

All news articles on 2022-06-16

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