Europe partially bans imports of Russian oil 1:11
(CNN) --
Four days after Russian forces invaded Ukraine and began a bloody war that shows no signs of ending anytime soon, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky officially applied for the country's membership in the European Union (EU), a move that could infuriate Putin.
On the same day, February 28, Zelesnky called for the EU to "urgently admit Ukraine through a new procedure... our goal is to be with all Europeans and to be equal to them. I'm sure we deserve it. I'm sure What is posible".
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Almost four months later, the European Commission is expected to offer its opinion on Friday on whether Ukraine should be considered a candidate state.
Next, it will be the 27 EU Member States that decide whether or not they agree with the Commission's opinion.
The question of whether or not Ukraine should join the EU and how Russia would react has been a contentious issue for years.
In 2013, protests in favor of integration with Europe erupted after the former Ukrainian president made the sudden decision not to sign an agreement with the EU that was to bring Ukraine into the bloc's orbit.
Instead, he opted for closer ties with Putin's Russia.
The following year, Russia invaded Donbas and illegally annexed the Crimean peninsula.
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Although most European nations strongly support Ukraine and have helped, to a greater or lesser extent, Zelensky in his war efforts, it is by no means certain that his wish will be fulfilled.
For political and procedural reasons, the EU may ultimately decide that the time is not right.
Even if they agreed with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's view that Ukraine should be considered for membership, it could take years, even decades, for that to become a reality.
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These are the reasons.
What is the EU accession process?
On paper, the process is relatively straightforward.
A country submits its application and the Commission issues a verdict on whether or not its application should be considered.
As is likely to be the case with Ukraine, the Commission will probably come up with various ways for Member States to accept a new candidate.
It is believed that the Commission will present two options with regard to Ukraine, which essentially amount to the same thing, with some minor differences: that Ukraine's accession will only start properly once the war is over and the country's institutions are able to meet the criteria needed to enter the EU.
The Copenhagen Criteria are a trio of rather opaque requirements that the EU must satisfy in order for a candidate state to enter the accession negotiations proper.
They focus on whether that country has a functioning free market economy, whether the country's institutions are adequate to uphold European values such as human rights and the EU's interpretation of the rule of law, and whether the country has an inclusive democracy that works.
Once the country considers that it meets these criteria, it will be able to start the 35 EU negotiating chapters, the last three of which take up some areas of the Copenhagen Criteria.
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Later, when the leaders of the EU Member States have reached an agreement, it must be ratified in the European Parliament and by the legislative powers of the governments of each Member State.
What do the EU countries think about the accession of Ukraine?
This is where things start to get complicated.
Although the EU and its 27 members have largely supported Ukraine in its war effort, the fact that a country at war starts the accession process poses all sorts of problems.
There are a number of candidate states that have been in the accession process for years and, in some cases, have seen their accession held back due to internal political instability.
An example of this is the case of Turkey, whose request has been practically frozen for fear of a setback in terms of the rule of law and human rights.
Starting the process with a country currently at war will raise questions from other candidate states that have seen their applications similarly frozen.
There is also concern that Ukraine is a long way from meeting the Copenhagen criteria in the near future.
According to the 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index conducted by Transparency International, Ukraine ranks 122nd on its list of 180 countries.
By comparison, Russia ranks 136th. Given that parts of Ukraine are currently occupied by Russia and could be long after the war ends, it is hard to predict whether this will get better or worse in the coming years.
Some EU officials have also expressed fear that, after the war, it will be difficult to know the human rights situation in Ukraine.
Beyond these practical issues, there are also political objections.
Some Western member states that have been in the EU from the beginning are concerned that the balance of power is shifting to the East, where some countries have regressed on things like the rule of law in recent years.
The European ruling class has had to deal with Hungary and Poland, which have played to the limit with EU rules, and is learning the hard way that once a country is in, it can get away with it.
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Other member states are concerned that Ukraine will join the bloc and immediately consume a huge amount of the EU budget due to the huge reconstruction exercise that will have to be carried out.
And some simply express concern that drawing Ukraine into a long and painful negotiation with the EU is not the best way to support the country at the moment.
How long would it take?
It really depends on what state Ukraine is in when the war ends.
It seems highly unlikely that Ukraine will come close to meeting the criteria for even starting negotiations for any significant period of time after the end of the war.
Aside from the reconstruction project, Ukraine will have to transition from a country operating under varying degrees of martial law and curfews to a functioning democracy.
The average time for a country to join the EU is four years and 10 months, according to London-based think tank UK in a Changing Europe.
The Member States that could be considered a kind of model for Ukraine's accession – Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Slovenia – exceeded the average waiting time.
What would EU membership mean for Ukraine?
Ukraine would be a member of the world's largest trading bloc, the EU's single market and customs union, and would have the protection of EU courts and access to the EU budget.
EU membership would also place Ukraine very clearly in the club of countries that consider themselves part of the Western alliance and the US-led world order.
How might Russia react?
Moscow has already said that joining the EU would be the same as joining NATO, a harder point to argue with now that the EU is becoming so overtly geopolitical.
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Russia has already reacted very badly to the suggestion that Finland and Sweden, EU member states, might join NATO.
Seeing Ukraine embraced by an institution so associated with the West will no doubt be seen as an act of aggression on the part of Putin.
What chances of success does Ukraine's candidacy have?
It won't happen soon, but the EU is likely to make a special effort to support Ukraine after its invasion by Russia.
Many European leaders have gone to visit Zelensky in Kyiv, and some officials feel that they cannot leave the leaders' summit on June 24 empty-handed after posing for photos alongside a real president in times of war.
If von der Leyen presents his version to the member states with reservations about accepting Ukraine's candidacy, it would be difficult for the EU to reject it outright.
But the European Union has a long history of doing unexpected things, even throughout this crisis.
And more often than not, these debates turn into a war of attrition between countries unable to agree, before being left in the long grass for another day.
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