D-2 before the Legislative: Together in the lead, according to the latest polls, but the absolute majority uncertain

Latest trends.

If the presidential majority is still at the top of the projections for the number of seats, the latest polls published this Friday, two days before the second round of the legislative elections, suggest that Emmanuel Macron may not obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly.

According to the latest Ipsos barometer for Radio France and France Televisions, Together comes first with 265 to 305 deputies, without certainty therefore of obtaining an absolute majority of 289 seats.

A similar interval is given by the Elabe poll published on Friday, carried out for L'Express, BFMTV and SFR, with 255 to 295 seats expected for Ensemble.

On the Nupes side (New popular, ecological and social union), Ipsos provides for 140 to 180 deputies.

Elabe is more optimistic, with 150 to 200 elected.

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The Republicans and their centrist and UDI allies could win between 60 and 80 seats for Ipsos or between 55 and 75 seats for Elabe.

The National Rally seems well on its way to being able to form a group in the Assembly, which implies having at least fifteen deputies.

Ipsos plans a minimum of 20 seats, against 30 for Elabe.

The two institutes agree on the other hand on a maximum of 50 seats, well below the objective of 100 deputies set by Marine Le Pen.

The difficult art of surveying

Voting intentions do not constitute a forecast of the outcome of the vote.

They give an indication of the balance of power and dynamics on the day of the survey.

The Ipsos survey for Radio France and France Télévisions was carried out on June 15 and 16 by self-administered online questionnaire on a sample of 1,991 people registered on the electoral lists and representative of the French population.

The margin of error is between 0.6 and 2.2 percentage points.

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The Elabe survey for L'Express, BFMTV and SFR was carried out from June 15 to 16 by online questionnaire on a sample of 1,801 people representative of residents of mainland France aged 18 and over, including 1,699 registered on the electoral lists.

The margin of error is between 1 and 2.3 percentage points.