The unprecedented warning issued this evening (Friday) by the security forces regarding the immediate danger of an attack in Istanbul, is related to the exceptional pressure that the Iranian security mechanisms are under.
There has recently been a series of ongoing assassinations in Iran attributed to Israel, and this fact has created Tehran's strong desire to avenge the humiliation.
Attempts to carry out terrorist attacks have also failed many times in recent years - including in East Asia and Africa, and this fact only increases their pressure.
As Iran's capability in these countries is limited, and in view of the fact that they have no interest in carrying out terrorist attacks in Europe in the midst of nuclear talks, Turkey, which has a long border with Iran and has a presence of tens of thousands of Israeli tourists, has become the preferred arena.
Although the Turks have begun to build a fence on their border with Iran, it is still broken and in the east of the country there is considerable Iranian influence.
The economic crisis experienced by Turkey and the collapse of the Turkish lira exchange rate made the country an even cheaper and more attractive destination for Israelis, so in the current conditions the Israeli government had to ban flights to the country and not settle for recommendations.
The avoidance of this may be related to an Israeli attempt to walk between the drops in sensitive relations with Turkey, which have recently improved significantly.
Foreign Minister Lapid calls on Israelis to leave Turkey // Photo: Reuters
Another weakness is the fact that in the past there was a very fruitful intelligence cooperation with the Turks, but during the years of Erdogan's rule it completely dissipated.
This created significant shortcomings in the intelligence picture regarding what was happening inside Turkey.
From this it should also be concluded that there may be other significant threats in Turkey that Israel is simply unaware of.
However, against the background of Erdogan's decision to make a positive change in relations with Israel, the intelligence cooperation regarding spot alerts during the current tension is very good.
The Turks are in no way interested in an Iranian attack on their territory, which will severely damage not only tourism from Israel but also from the rest of the world, as other countries may issue a travel warning to Turkey.
In a time of deep economic crisis, this could be an extremely severe blow for Ankara.
In addition, it should be remembered that Sunni Turkey is a strategic rival of Shiite Iran.
While Erdogan aspires to revive the Ottoman Empire and make Turkey the hegemonic power in the region, Iran aspires to do the exact same thing and establish a Shiite hegemony under its leadership in the Middle East.
Bottom line, there is a clear Turkish interest in the Iranians failing and failing to carry out an attack.
Despite the Turkish motivation, it is important to remember that many attacks have taken place in the country over the years, both by the Kurdish underground and by al-Qaeda and then by ISIS.
The capabilities of the Turkish security forces and local intelligence are unclear, and Israelis staying in the country are advised not to rely on them.
In the end, if there was good enough intelligence we would have already heard about the terrorists' arrest, and it has not happened yet - at least for some of the squads.
Therefore, the message to the thousands of Israelis who are still in Turkey is clear: Get out of the country immediately.
You're risking your life, and it's just not worth it.
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