Ukraine should become an EU candidate – what that means for Putin and Zelenskyy

Created: 06/18/2022, 06:05

By: Franziska Schwarz

Picture taken on June 15: A flag in the nation's colors laid on the ground by Ukrainian activists in Kyiv.

© Mykhaylo Palinchak/Imago

The EU club of currently 27 countries could expand - including Ukraine.

However, that could take years.

An example is Turkey under Erdogan.

Brussels - Will Ukraine become a candidate for EU membership?

In all likelihood, the EU Commission will make a recommendation on June 17 - and the authority headed by Ursula von der Leyen will say "yes".

This is reported by the dpa news agency from commission circles.

Ukraine as an EU candidate?

What that would mean for Putin and Zelenskyy

A possible rapprochement with the EU has meanwhile gained paramount importance for the country in the escalated Ukraine conflict.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy keeps declaring this a historic question.

At the same time, he emphasizes that Ukraine is also defending the EU and its values ​​against Russia under Vladimir Putin.

For the head of the Kremlin, on the other hand, Ukraine's accession to the EU would be a defeat.

Observers attest to Putin's aversion to the West and democracy in general.

Putin wants to go back to a world order in which the stronger dictate what is right, said Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD).

The German Office for the Protection of the Constitution warned: Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, Putin has been trying to solidify the narrative of an alleged “Russophobia” in the West.

What is the government's position on this?

During the visit to Kyiv by the Federal Chancellor and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, both announced their support for Kyiv's request.

"Germany is for a positive decision in favor of Ukraine," Scholz said.

EU accession of Ukraine around President Zelenskyy?

These “Copenhagen criteria” apply

But: That is linked to specific conditions - such as progress in the rule of law and in the fight against corruption.

Not every candidate automatically becomes a member of the EU.

Take Turkey, for example, under (currently) President Recep Tayyip Erdogan: The country has been a candidate for EU membership since 1999 - and has probably never been so far from membership as it is today.

The “Copenhagen Criteria”, which were defined at an EU summit in the Danish capital in 1993, are particularly relevant.

They include:

• Institutional stability as a guarantee for democracy and the rule of law, for the protection of human rights and the respect and protection of minorities

• A functioning market economy and the ability to withstand competitive pressures and market forces within the EU

• The ability to assume all the obligations of membership - that is, all of the law and policies of the EU (the so-called "acquis communautaire") - as well as agreement with the objectives of Political Union and Economic and Monetary Union

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In addition, candidate countries must be able to apply the extremely complex and comprehensive EU law and ensure that it is effectively implemented by national administrations and judiciaries.

The EU itself must also be able to absorb and integrate new countries.

Ukraine-News: Prerequisites for EU candidacy probably not met

Can Ukraine meet these requirements in the foreseeable future?

That is extremely unlikely.

The European Court of Auditors gave the country a devastating report in September 2021.

"Although Ukraine receives all kinds of support from the EU, oligarchs and interest groups continue to undermine the rule of law in Ukraine and endanger the country's development," a special report said at the time.

EU projects and EU aid have contributed to revising the Ukrainian constitution and a large number of laws.

However, achievements are constantly being jeopardized and there are numerous attempts to circumvent legislation and water down reforms.

The whole system of criminal investigation, prosecution and prosecution in high-level corruption cases is anything but stable.

Zelenskyy wants Ukraine to join the EU: will there be an agreement?

The positions within the EU on Ukraine's accession have recently been far apart.

States such as Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Ireland have been pushing for weeks to quickly make Ukraine an EU candidate.

However, Portugal, the Netherlands and Denmark are skeptical.

One argument put forward by the opponents of enlargement is that the EU, with its principle of unanimity in matters such as foreign and security policy, is already considered cumbersome.

They first urge internal reforms before opening the door to new members.

In addition, there are countries like Austria that demand that Bosnia-Herzegovina must also be given candidate status if Ukraine gets it.

Ukraine to the EU?

Which countries still want to become candidates

Besides Turkey, the countries Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia are already candidates for membership.

There are also Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo as so-called potential candidates.

Shortly after Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova also applied in March 2022.

The EU Commission also intends to present its recommendation for these two countries on June 17.

Moldova should do as well as Ukraine.

Georgia, on the other hand, must reckon with the fact that it will only be granted candidate status after certain conditions have been met.