A fine observer of French political life and a regular contributor to FigaroVox, Maxime Tandonnet notably published
André Tardieu.
The misunderstood
(Perrin, 2019) and
Georges Bidault: from the Resistance to French Algeria
(Perrin, 2022).
To discover
Find all the results of the legislative elections
“
It would be a nightmare
” declared on Europe 1, on June 16, a parliamentarian close to President Macron about the risk for the latter of losing an absolute majority at the end of the 2022 legislative elections. The scenario that has just come true goes beyond the worst of the nightmares of the team in power with a number of Macronist deputies much lower than announced by the polls, with just over 200 deputies, and very far from an absolute majority.
This gesture of defiance, occurring just after a presidential election, is without precedent in political history.
Admittedly, after the re-election of François Mitterrand in 1988, the Socialist Party had failed to reach the fateful threshold, but it came close to it and benefited from the support of a centre-left fringe rallied to its Prime Minister Michel Rocard.
The situation today is infinitely more dramatic for the Head of State.
Worse: since the reduction of the presidential mandate from seven to five years in 2000, all the heads of state have benefited from a comfortable majority: Jacques Chirac in 2002, Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007, François Hollande in 2012 and Emmanuel Macron in 2017 This was one of the foundations of the presidential regime resulting from the adoption of the five-year term: the French people, after having chosen the President of the Republic, systematically “gave” him a majority to govern.
Thus, the failure of President Macron to obtain an absolute majority constitutes a turning point in the functioning of the French political system.
Should we see the entry of chaos in the National Assembly like the Third and Fourth Republics ending or the return to a parliamentary democracy worthy of the name?
Symbolically, the failure of the Head of State and the joint thrust of the Nupes and the RN are presented as a victory for the so-called “anti-system” forces.
Maxime Tandonnet
It is a disoriented country which has just re-elected a head of state just before cutting his wings.
In truth, this revolution through the ballot box brings French political decomposition to its climax.
In a context of disinterest, indifference and record abstentionism, it reflects the dizzying worsening of the democratic divide, the growing divorce between the nation and its leaders.
The message is clear: the President of the Republic was elected by default in the absence of another acceptable solution, especially in the second round of the presidential election.
From now on, the country refuses him its confidence thus putting an end to the myth of the Jupiterian republic.
The last five years sublimated a mode of exercise of the Elysian function which consists in covering disappointments,
failures and collective misfortunes even catastrophes under a debauchery of narcissistic communication and provocations.
In the legislative elections, the French clearly wanted to sanction this drift.
The distrust was mainly expressed in the vote in favor of Nupes - about 150 deputies - but also of the National Rally - nearly 90 deputies - which makes a historic entry into the National Assembly.
In the world of outrageous spectacle politics, where sensationalism crushes collective reason, everything happens as if the yellow vests had thus taken their revenge at the ballot box, three years after the failure of their movement in the street and the contempt they claim to have been the victims.
Already Jean-Luc Mélenchon posed as the spiritual leader of this movement: “
Macron had said, let them come get me!
It’s done
” he thundered on November 17, 2018.
Symbolically, the failure of the Head of State and the joint thrust of the Nupes and the RN are presented as a victory for the so-called “anti-system” forces.
The gesture of defiance seems directed against the President of the Republic and more generally against the arrogance of the ruling elites towards popular circles, so-called peripheral France, the people of the roundabouts.
It refers both to the "no" in the referendum on the European constitution in 2005 and to the initial spirit of the movement of yellow vests.
It is a popular vote directed against said "system", a vote of revenge.
LR voters also wanted to severely sanction the Macronian experience.
It would be betraying their will to enter into the logic of a government contract.
Maxime Tandonnet
The new fragmented Assembly, like France, thus promises to be chaotic.
A political system that experts considered invulnerable is now overtaken by the chaos of French society.
This outcome completes an already moribund Fifth Republic.
It makes the reforms announced by the executive almost impossible (in particular in terms of pensions) and greatly weakens all the governments that will be appointed by President Macron and will live under the permanent threat of a motion of censure.
In this context, the so-called “classic” or “government” right, which retains a significant number of deputies, has an obvious card to play.
Less weakened than the polls had announced, it can tomorrow play a pivotal role in the new assembly, as a "third way" between the relative majority of Emmanuel Macron and the radicalized formations that are the Nupes and the RN.
In particular, it may be called upon to vote, after having imposed its conditions, on any government bills that are in the interest of the country.
But, this positioning is only conceived subject to rejecting the trap of a submission to the executive which would make it appear in a role of auxiliary, unworthy and suicidal since linking its destiny to that of a stillborn five-year term.
LR voters also wanted to severely sanction the Macronian experience.
It would be betraying their will to enter into the logic of a government contract.
On the contrary, on the eve of a deeply troubled if not chaotic and violent period, the ability of a right, even a minority, to again embody the next generation, depends on the firmness with which it will exercise its mission of enlightened opposition, both towards presidential power and towards the foreseeable excesses of other parties.