The health of the Pope unleashes the Vatican rumor mill

The conclave drums have been beating again in Rome in recent weeks.

Three facts that give oxygen to the theory of renunciation have coincided in time.

The 85-year-old Pope, now in his tenth year of pontificate, has a knee problem that has left him in a wheelchair and forced him to cancel an ambitious trip to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan just two weeks seen;

furthermore, he has convened a great consistory for the month of August where he will definitively mark the personality of the majority of cardinals who will elect the next pontiff, and, lastly, Francis has scheduled a visit to L'Aquila that same month, where he will participate in the celebration of Forgiveness instituted by Celestine V, the first pope who resigned from office in 1294 and who was inspired by Benedict XVI for his historic resignation.

The sound of the drums now, however, seems closer to conjecture than Francisco's intentions.

The Vatican gardens, everyone agrees, are not that big for two emeritus popes.

A dozen pontiffs, more or less forced by their surroundings, circumstances or death threats, stepped aside during their mandate.

It happened especially in the Middle Ages, due to the political and ecclesiastical instability that existed before the consolidation of the Papal States at the end of the 15th century.

The only one to do so freely in the modern era was Benedict XVI in 2013, when he realized that his strength was no longer sufficient to face the reforms that the future demanded and to withstand the onslaught of his enemies.

Ratzinger himself, now 95, summed it up like this: “I am a shepherd surrounded by wolves.”

Jorge Mario Bergoglio always stressed that the example of his predecessor would serve as an inspiration if necessary.

But the idea of ​​Francis resigning seems impossible while his predecessor is alive.

Austen Ivereigh, author of several works on Francis and his monumental biography,

(Ediciones B, 2015), he does not believe that his physical condition indicates that he should resign.

“When I saw her, it seemed to me that she was in pain, but not that she was frail or weak.

In addition, it is hoped that she can be cured, even if she does not want to have surgery.

And, as he said, to govern the Church you need the brain, not the legs.

Speculation is natural, but I don't see any reason to think that we are reaching the end.

What about L'Aquila?

It seems absurd to me, Benedict XVI resigned several years later from traveling there”, he explains in reference to the visit on August 28 to the place that houses the remains of Celestine V, a hermit monk who was pope for five months, in 1294, and he resigned for ecclesial corruption (like Ratzinger, according to the unofficial account).

Still, Ivereigh is inclined to think Francis will follow suit at some point.

“I have no doubt that when he plays he will discern.

And it will be when he has no more strength left.

When he thinks the time has come, he will have no doubts.

I'm sure.

But I insist, everything is related to the strength that one has”.

Knee pain

The strength of the Pope, right now, is conditioned by an ailment in his right knee, of which there is no official information and for which the Pontiff does not want to have surgery.

An injury that causes severe pain, evident on his face at certain times, but should be treatable based on infiltrations.

Francisco needs to rest and move, for the moment, in a wheelchair.

"He does not need to walk to govern, but in the symbology of power, especially in such a vertical papacy, perhaps it is not the best message either," says a senior official of the Curia.

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The neurologist and journalist Nelson Castro, author of the book

(Sudamericana, 2021) has recently spoken with the pontiff and believes that "the rumors of resignation are unfounded."

“The Pope has neither the will nor the thought of resigning.

Except for the knee problem, a torn ligament due to a bad movement, he's perfect.

This makes it difficult for him to move, but it does not prevent him from carrying out his task.

He is reluctant to undergo surgery because it was difficult for him to recover from the anesthesia of the colon operation a year ago [he underwent surgery for diverticulitis that has already sparked all kinds of rumors].

The latest information I have is that he feels better and rest brings relief.

And that's the only way to avoid surgery,” he says.

Castro also points out that the Pope pointed out in a meeting that he would not resign as long as Benedict XVI was still alive: "He told me, 'look, having a pope emeritus is impossible.'

Most of the sources consulted, as Castro points out, believe that Francis does not think about resigning and will not consider it while Benedict XVI lives.

In addition, the historian and former director of

, Giovanni Maria Vian, points out, "there is no similarity with the stage that led to Joseph Ratzinger's resignation" and that allows drawing parallels.

“I think he rather has the example of the Pope who made him a cardinal [John Paul II], who did not resign.

Wojtyla

until the last consequences, when the situation was much more serious”, he points out.

But there is another element that has triggered the alarms of the Vatican Sanhedrin that must be interpreted through the legacy of Francis in the Church of the future.

The Pope has convened a new consistory – the eighth of his term – to create 21 new cardinals, of whom 16 will be able to enter the conclave that elects the next pontiff.

Francisco will also use the appointment of August 27 to gather all the cardinals for two days and debate the new Apostolic Constitution (

), the great reform of his mandate (Benedict XVI used, by surprise and in 2013, a speech in Latin before the cardinals assembled for a series of canonizations to announce his resignation).

Beyond the forum that constitutes such an act, the consistory will grant Francis the absolute majority in cardinals appointed by him: 83 of the 132 cardinals with the right to vote are his creatures.

But a majority guarantees nothing in matters of heaven.

During his long pontificate, John Paul II created 113 of the 115 cardinals who would elect the next pope.

The conclave, however, determined that the new pope should be Joseph Ratzinger, one of the two he had not appointed.

The other, the American William Baum, had a difficult time at that time: he was in a wheelchair.

In any case, the composition of the new college of cardinals speaks of an international conclave, much more peripheral and far from the traditional Italian cliques (Spain is the only country with a representative in each convocation).

But also from a pastoral profile much closer to the Pope.

Beyond conjecture and pools, it is impossible to determine how much remains of Bergoglio's mandate.

Church historian Alberto Melloni insists on a crucial truism: "No one knows anything."

“We are in the final phase of the pontificate, that is evident.

He would understand even a fool.

But these stages can be very long or shorter.

That of John Paul II lasted 12 years and that of Ratzinger, only one.

The important issue in all this is the institutional and procedural aspects.

The only requirement that canon law imposes on the resignation of a pope is that he be free, that he not obey advice, interference or petitions.

So the only issue you should decide on now is that two resignations in a row can put a degree of pressure on the successor.

A resignation from time to time is not a precedent, but two, yes, "

One of the key issues is precisely how a pope who steps aside should be treated.

Some now believe that if Benedict XVI's decision became the norm, it would be impossible to maintain the status of pontiff for those who decide to resign and they would have to become mere cardinals.

Melloni believes that "a law on resignation is necessary."

“But the question can be treated as if he were the Bishop Emeritus of Rome [the Pope is also the Bishop of the Italian capital].

No one cares that there are two bishops emeritus from Milan or Paris.

Where there is one there can be two.

In the idea of ​​the Pope it is more difficult, because one thing that Ratzinger intuited is the idea of ​​being under house arrest in the domains of the successor.

The Vatican is big and has room for two invisibles.

The question is not how many emeritus live in the Vatican,

but if Francisco is convinced that his resignation does not condition the successor.

One to resign must have strength.

He does not resign when he is weak, but when he is still strong”.

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