Barely elected, already dissolved?
Could the new National Assembly pack its bags even before dropping them off?
After an election evening with a bitter taste for the Republic on the move, could the marchers dissolve the Assembly, thus hoping to relaunch the dice and obtain an absolute majority?
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Read alsoThe
Figaro
editorial : "
Macron, the specter of a stillborn five-year
term "
"
It's not on the table
," replied Olivia Grégoire, government spokesperson.
For his part, the RN mayor of Perpignan, Louis Aliot, denigrated this alternative.
“It's not the best thing to do.
Emmanuel Macron will have to show his ability to govern in adversity, and to take opposition into account within the framework of the democratic game.
Un avis défavorable porté aussi par le ministre actuel de l'Agriculture, Marc Fesneau, qui a estimé que dissoudre l'Assemblée nationale serait
«assez iconoclaste»
alors que
«les électeurs ont tranché»
, et appelle à
«ne pas jouer avec la Constitution ».
A possible but binding dissolution
Is it possible to dissolve the National Assembly the day after legislative elections?
“
Yes it is legally possible
”, answers
Le Figaro
, Guillaume Tusseau, professor of public law at Sciences Po Paris.
Indeed, according to article 12 of the Constitution, “
the President of the Republic may, after consultation with the Prime Minister and the presidents of the assemblies, pronounce the dissolution
” of the latter.
The text provides three safeguards: It is forbidden to use it when the exceptional powers of Article 16 of the Constitution are in force;
during an interim period of the presidency, or if a dissolution has already taken place during the year.
However, the current newly elected Assembly is the result of the classic democratic process and not of a dissolution.
"
So it's possible,
" continues Professor Guillaume Tusseau.
There is just a subtlety about the terms 'the coming year', it can be understood as the calendar year - i.e. before January 1, 2023 - or the year in duration - i.e. June 20, 2023
.
In other words, it is possible for Emmanuel Macron to request a new election of the 577 deputies recently elected provided that he has consulted the Prime Minister and the presidents of the assemblies.
However, if Elisabeth Borne is installed in her post as first lady of the government, it is not the same for the current president of the Palais Bourbon.
Defeated with 49.15% of the vote in his constituency of Carhaix (Finistère), Richard Ferrand lost his seat as deputy.
On June 28, the deputies will have to meet to elect his successor.
Par conséquent, si Emmanuel Macron tentait une dissolution de l'Assemblée, il lui faudrait alors consulter Élisabeth Borne, sa première ministre, Gérard Larcher, le président du Sénat, puis le président du Palais Bourbon, dont le nom ne sera pas connu avant la weekend.
The new elections must take place between “
twenty days at least and forty days at most after the dissolution
”, continues the Constitution.
A dissolution with dangerous political consequences
Last point that must be taken into account before dissolving the Assembly: the political consequences.
“
Nobody would understand that we decided to dissolve the Assembly,
conceded Marc Fesneau.
The voters decided.
“A remark taken up by Élisabeth Borne on Sunday evening, who affirmed
” to have to respect this vote and to draw the consequences from it “.
It would not be the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic that a president would make such a decision.
There are precedents in 1961, 1968, 1981, 1988 and 1997. The first four had a favorable outcome for the president.
But in 1997, Jacques Chirac lost his bet.
By pronouncing the dissolution of the Assembly, the president wanted to obtain a greater majority in favor of his austerity programme.
But after a month of campaigning, it was the left that won with 43.1% of the vote, ahead of the presidential majority (36.5%) and the National Front (14.9%).
Lionel Jospin was thus appointed prime minister and launched the third cohabitation of the fifth Republic.
Other examples of dissolution failures are present in history, such as "
the defeat of Charles X, which led to the war of 1830
" or that of General MacMahon on May 16, 1877.