At the end of the second round of the legislative elections, the new face of the National Assembly is unprecedented in the context of the Fifth Republic.
The fragmentation of the votes during this election caused the emergence of three main opposing blocs in the hemicycle.
Such a situation reminds many observers of the complicated hours of the Fourth Republic or even the government of Michel Rocard, between 1992 and 1993, which did not have an absolute majority at the Palais Bourbon for around fifteen seats.
This absence of uncontested force voting the program of the president obliges the executive to negotiate with the oppositions or to impose its measures, creating a context favorable to the tensions.
Small lexicon for the use of the citizens of the legal modalities which will constitute the context of possible stumbling blocks.
The general policy statement
This is the first potential point of tension between the executive and the newly elected.
The Prime Minister gives a speech to the deputies in which he sets out the main lines of his government programme, the main reforms and measures he wants to put in place during his term of office.
It is not obligatory, but it is a tradition under the Fifth Republic.
We also speak of “discourse on the method” to evoke this founding moment of a new government.
The speech is generally followed by a "vote of confidence" and this is where the problem lies: if this vote, which is carried out by an absolute majority of the votes cast, is negative, the government is supposed to resign.
"Nothing in the Constitution says precisely that the Prime Minister must leave, but when we have taken responsibility for his program, without a majority, it is still complicated to stay", specifies Bruno Daugeron, professor of public law at the Paris-Cité University.
The next few days will therefore probably provide the opportunity for a debate on the interpretation of the text.
The motion of censure
Next step, the motion of censure is exercised on the occasion of all or part of a government measure.
In theory, this parliamentary pressure tactic even has the power to overthrow the government.
In an Assembly where one party has obtained an absolute majority, the process has very little chance of succeeding.
But things are different this time.
The Insoumis are already threatening July 5, the date on which Elisabeth Borne is supposed to deliver her general policy speech.
Still they would have to manage to convince enough deputies to follow them, which is far from won.
The 1958 Constitution provided for two methods of motion of censure: the “spontaneous” (art. 49.2) emanates from the sole initiative of the deputies, while its filing requires only 10% of signatures (58 elected).
Brandished on numerous occasions by the various oppositions under the V, it succeeded only once, on October 5, 1962, against the election and confirmation by referendum of the President of the Republic by universal suffrage, a wish of the General de Gaulle.
Its adoption had then brought down the Pompidou government.
Read alsoPompidou overthrown in 1962: the only motion of censure that hit the mark
The other motion is said to be “provoked” because it may be the reaction of elected officials to the Prime Minister's decision to engage the government's responsibility before the Assembly on all or part of a text.
This is the famous article 49.3 (see next point).
The “49.3”
Article 49.3 of the Constitution is considered politically as the appropriate parliamentary tool for pushing through a bill.
Regularly contested by the opposition, it has been used by almost all Prime Ministers, who have at least once committed their government to a text.
The measure is then deemed adopted without debate, unless a motion of censure is tabled within 24 hours.
But can he serve to govern for five years?
“This is no longer possible, since 2008: the use of this article is limited to the vote on the finance bill or the social security financing bill.
It is also possible to do this for another bill, but only once per parliamentary session, ”recalls Bruno Daugeron.
“From a practical point of view, there is no question of governing with 49.3”, therefore decides the constitutionalist.
Dissolution
If the president is not convinced that he can get his reforms passed by a relative majority or through negotiations, he can always use the constitutional nuclear weapon represented by the dissolution of the Assembly to try to renew it.
A risky bet, however.
Article 12 of the Constitution provides for new legislative elections to be organized between twenty and forty days later.
It is a power of arbitration, which was for example used by General de Gaulle in 1968, to put an end to the strong social movement which disturbed the functioning of the institutions or by François Mitterrand, in 1981 and 1988, to bring coherence the presidential majority.
But this decision can be taken even before the effective blocking?
“There is no legal prohibition to dissolve immediately after the vote, even if the president must wait for the Assembly to be constituted and convened.
It could thus dissolve from Wednesday, since the previous legislature ends Tuesday at midnight.
But it remains very very hypothetical, ”analyzes Bruno Daugeron.
And to specify that since 1958, five dissolutions took place: in 1962, 1968, 1981, 1988 and 1997. The first four were a victory for the camp of the president and the last ended in a defeat.