The challenges facing Gustavo Petro 0:55
(CNN Spanish) --
One of the questions that was triggered in Google after the triumph of Gustavo Petro and Francia Márquez in Colombia is how the Colombian peso will evolve against the dollar.
Experts agree on the possibility of an increase in the dollar against the peso and warn: the announcements that Petro makes in these hours in terms of equipment and economic policy are key.
The exchange rate has fluctuated, since the first round, between 3,780 and 4,010 pesos in response to the results of those elections and also to the dynamics of oil prices, key to the Colombian economy, Isidro Hernández Rodríguez explained to CNN en Español , Professor of Economics at the Externado de Colombia University.
Possibility of an increase in the price of the dollar in Colombia in the short term
At the end of this week and the next, the price is expected to stabilize around 3,900 pesos, says Hernández, explaining that "market operators are going to feel an effect of growth in demand by some individuals who They may be nervous about the new president and his economic policies.
And here he makes an exception: international companies with a presence in Colombia, in general terms, respond more to the policies of the parent companies and "give a waiting period to the new administrations", so they will not be the ones that influence the movement of rates, but these other people.
From Scotiabank Colpatria they coincide with the short-term increase forecast.
"It is possible that volatility will increase on Tuesday's trading day given that both Colombia and the United States return from a holiday, says an analysis by Jackeline Piraján, shared with CNN en Español. "However, the announcements that Gustavo Petro does during the holiday day to define the reaction of the market on Tuesday," he adds.
An "adverse scenario" in the short term could point to an increase of 150 pesos in the value of the dollar "reversing the positive effect seen after the first round elections."
"However, subsequent moves will depend on the information that becomes known regarding the makeup of the government cabinet and the priority policies," he says.
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The representative market exchange rate prepared by the Financial Superintendence calculates 3,905.05 Colombian pesos per US dollar for Tuesday the 21st, after the holiday this Monday.
The dollar reached its highest peak on March 20, 2020, at the start of the pandemic, when it stood at 4,153.9 pesos, according to central bank statistics.
Juan David Ballén, Director of Analysis and Strategy at Casa de Bolsa SCB Grupo Aval, also speaks of a difference with respect to what happened after the first round.
"After Rodolfo Hernández went to the second round, the dollar fell 150 pesos. Therefore, it is possible that the dollar will increase around 5% in the next few days ($400 pesos) due to the victory of Gustavo Petro," he wrote in your Twitter account.
That 5%, he explained, is similar to the change that occurred in Chile and Peru after the 2021 presidential elections.
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global dollar strengthening
In the medium term, says Piraján, the key to defining the dollar's trend will be "international developments."
"We do not expect the exchange rate to drop much more than 3,750 Colombian pesos" because "the context of higher rates at the international level generates a global strengthening of the dollar," he explains.
Request for "clear signals" in the economic field
Bruce Mac Master, president of the National Association of Businessmen of Colombia, linked the possible trajectory of the dollar with the signals on economic policy issued by the new government.
"To the extent that one can generate those clear signals (on the economy), the exchange rate will surely be able to maintain the levels at which it has been," he said in an interview with Blu Radio, affirming that if the exchange rate If it were to rise, other problems would be unleashed, such as inflation or greater difficulties in importing.
Mac Master said he would have liked a clearer message from Petro after the result about who are the people who will be at the forefront of economic policy "and the kind of ideology behind them."
Getting to know the team quickly, he argued, would provide peace of mind and help deal with uncertainty.
"Gustavo Petro's victory in Sunday's elections will test the ability of institutions in Colombia to ensure continuity in the prudent management of the macroeconomy," Moody's Vice President Renzo Merino said in statements sent to CNN en Español .
"Given that the next president will lack legislative majorities, it will be necessary to generate political consensus to advance his government program," he explained.
Speculation on the dollar in social networks
In the last few hours, the image of an exchange house where the dollar was priced at 5,000 Colombian pesos for sale was widely circulated on social networks and other media.
However, the experts explain, these specific cases should in no way be taken as a reference to what will happen with the official price.
"The dollar that is traded in the exchange houses is not regulated and its price depends on the supply and demand available in each exchange house," Ballén explained on his Twitter account this Sunday as a result of the image.
In addition, he said, it should also be taken into account that the amounts that are traded in an exchange house are less than those of the financial system and the stock market, that is, the regulated market.
For this reason, he explained, a more accurate reference for the path of the greenback is the future dollar of this Monday and the price of Tuesday.
Other specialized voices joined this message.
"The price in a market is not made up of one transaction, nor two: I insist, wait for Tuesday. Calm down," wrote Jorge Restrepo, associate professor of Economics at the Javeriana University.
The cost of a possible suspension of oil exploitation
The future of oil exploitation in Colombia has been at the center of the debate during the campaign.
Petro and Márquez, according to what their program indicates, want to put an end to extractivism and affirm that they will prohibit the exploration and exploitation of unconventional deposits, they will stop pilot fracking projects and the development of offshore deposits, they will not grant new licenses for exploration of hydrocarbons nor will they allow large-scale open pit mining.
The economic research institution Corficolombiana published on June 14, days before the second round, an analysis of the estimated impact of a supposed suspension of new hydrocarbon exploration from 2023 to 2027.
In that scenario, says the company, the Colombian peso would be devalued between 39.9% and 43.7% by 2027 and the exchange rate would be between 5,080 and 7,000.
With information from Carolina Melo.
Elections ColombiaGustavo Petro