"The ÖVP is currently blowing the ÖVP in the face." That was a good first sentence of this newsletter from February, and basically nothing has changed until today, at the end of June.
The ÖVP is mainly concerned with itself.
Since it is the governing party and provides the chancellor, this is not just a matter for the ÖVP, but for the whole republic.
Apart from personnel turbulence in the federal states and various court proceedings on suspicion of bribery, it is above all the financial conduct that has shaken the party and thus the entire country.
Anyone who has such a sloppy relationship with their own finances, who has apparently lost track themselves or deliberately conceals it, is hardly trusted to manage the state's finances in a serious and trustworthy manner.
This leads to two consequences: First, trust in politics has been shaken for the long term;
secondly, hardly anyone believes that this governing coalition will last.
There are new elections in the room.
The massive slump in trust primarily affects the ÖVP, but not only.
The green junior partner also suffers, together the two governing parties do not even get 30 percent approval in recent polls.
So they are miles away from a majority that enabled them to form a coalition government in autumn 2019 with a total of more than 50 percent.
That won't console anyone, but the striking loss of trust also affects the opposition parties in Austria.
They are not trusted with anything or very little, and the parties and the population will have to suffer from this state of affairs for a long time to come.
This is a development that cannot be reversed in the short term.
A chance for the opposition
In any case, a short-term measure would be to call new elections, which many can already smell.
Hardly anyone believes that the government will last until the regular election date of 2024;
many political observers argue that this is hardly reasonable, but above all the representatives of the opposition parties, who now see a good opportunity and are trying to call new elections.
What speaks against it: If it is true that the ÖVP is doing as miserably as we all believe, then its representatives have the least interest in getting elected at the moment.
A quick election would only lead to official documentation of the party's state of misery.
This in turn could lead to the ÖVP being thrown out of the government and all offices.
And who wants that in the ÖVP?
merged with state power
Outside the People's Party, many observers believe that it would be good for the party and the country if the ÖVP were relegated to the opposition bench - both the party and Austria could recover from each other.
After all, the ÖVP has been in government for 35 years, with the exception of a few days, so it has almost merged with state power.
In any case, it would be up to the Greens to put an end to this government by breaking with the ÖVP.
Occasions come up again and again.
However, the Greens themselves are not so well positioned that they could happily vote in new elections.
There are two factions within the party: those who want to savor government participation and access to power to the very last day - and those who would like to put an end to the turquoise spook tomorrow.
criticism from the left
The Greens keep complaining loudly that they are being treated so harshly and criticized too harshly by the opposition Social Democrats.
It is important to think ahead and ensure a left-wing majority in the medium term.
The enemy of the SPÖ should not be the Greens.
This is a fallacy.
In fact, the Neos, SPÖ and Greens have been trying to bring about a traffic light coalition from these three parties for quite some time.
And it almost happened in December last year, but Sebastian Kurz forestalled that with his total withdrawal from politics.
At that time, one would even have been willing to get the FPÖ on board, which is still embarrassing for the SPÖ, the Greens and Neos today, and rightly so.
However, strong forces within the SPÖ stand in the way of this, the mainstream, so to speak.
Hans Peter Doskozil, the recalcitrant Red governor in Burgenland, does not belong to this group.
If you let him, he would like to be the top candidate in the next National Council election and go into the election battle with a clear statement for red-green-pink.
From today's perspective, Doskozil abhors the ÖVP.
Which is unusual in that clear coalition announcements are not made before an election in Austria.
But Doskozil will not find a majority in his party anyway.
The top candidate will be party leader Pamela Rendi-Wagner, who has done everything to strengthen her position within the party.
And Rendi-Wagner does not want any experiments at the federal level, which could result in a coalition with the ÖVP again in the long term.
After all, an ÖVP that has to practice humility is a decent partner.
It is possible that the ÖVP will remain in the federal government for another 35 years.
Social media moment of the week
Marco Pogo, fictional character, doctor and chairman of the beer party, wants to compete in the federal presidential election in Austria.
This ensures lively debates, especially in the online forums - also about the relaxed attitude of Austrian politicians to the subject of alcohol
Items we recommend you today:
The Austrian sociologist Elisabeth Schimpfössl interviewed 80 rich Russians and researched how they tick: "Putin's war endangers the business model of the oligarchs"
In the era of Sebastian Kurz, the amount of loans that the ÖVP had taken out, especially in the Raiffeisen sector, exploded: Turquoise holes in black coffers
With his daily newspaper »Österreich« Wolfgang Fellner wants to be at the top of the newspaper market.
To do this, he uses increasingly questionable methods – listen to the new episode of the “Inside Austria” podcast here
Questionable appointments to posts: Once again, the personnel policy in the turquoise-black sphere of influence is causing heated controversy
Thank you for your attention and best regards from Vienna,
Yours, Michael Völker
And once again a note on our own behalf: You can order this briefing as a newsletter to your e-mail inbox here.
