Parts of the US would be hit by second heat wave 0:31
(CNN Spanish) --
"This is the hottest summer of my life," says an anguished Bart Simpson and, in the next frame, Homer answers him with his index finger raised: "This is the coolest summer of the rest of your life".
If you live in the northern hemisphere, where heat waves already threaten millions from the United States to Spain, you may have already received this meme.
If you have doubts about how true it is, we understand: Homer does not seem to be the most reliable source of scientific information a priori.
Here we explain to you to what extent to believe him.
If you read the message 100% literally, you could not say that it is completely accurate, Dr. Andrew Pershing, director of the Climate Central organization, which studies the impacts of climate change, tells CNN en Español, because theoretically it could be recorded. some less hot year.
But the message is fundamentally correct because it points to a fact about which science has no doubt: temperatures are rising steadily.
"Every year the (temperature) trend is up. We may have a rebound, but the direction is very clear," he explains.
So clear is it, he says, that if you had to bet for or against what Homer says, you should bet for it to make a few extra dollars.
"If every year you bet that the next summer is going to be hotter than the previous one, you are going to win more than you are going to lose," she exemplifies.
99% of 246 US cities recently analyzed by Climate Central have gotten hotter since 1970. The city that has warmed the most is Reno, Nevada, while at the state level the unfortunate record is held by Alaska.
Looking at the historical trend of the last 52 years, the hottest city is Phoenix.
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These are the hottest cities in the US
Among the hottest cities in the country there are also some popular tourist destinations, such as Las Vegas and Miami, as well as several located very close to the border with Mexico.
How to know the impact of climate change on temperature in real time
There is another fact about which there is no longer any scientific doubt —despite the continuous misinformation of the deniers—: human-induced climate change impacts the increase in temperatures.
But how much exactly?
This Tuesday, Climate Central launched the Climate Change Index (CSI, for its acronym in English), the first online tool that allows to know, in real time, the impact of climate change on temperatures in specific places in the United States and on daily basis.
The platform quantifies, based on a numerical scale, the level of influence of carbon emissions on temperatures on a given day.
A level two, for example, implies that the temperature at that location on that day was at least twice as likely as it would have been without climate change.
A level four implies that the probability is quadrupled.
The Climate Central tool, which you can consult online, shows you based on a color scale what is the impact of climate change on temperature.
(Source: Climate Central)
The CSI is built from calculations based on observations and models detailed in a study published this month in
Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography
, the organization says.
"The traces of climate change are all around us," explains Pershing, and that is why they bet on this tool.
It also allows analyzing the impact on regular days and not necessarily on those with the highest temperature, which are the ones that are usually highlighted.
"Extremes get a lot of attention, but we're seeing very subtle day-to-day changes in the weather around us that we can now attribute to climate change," she says.
The worst heat waves in US history.
If you had looked at the summer of last year, when the West suffered one of its biggest heat waves in recent memory, you might have concluded that the Northeast, for example, was also experiencing temperatures that were twice as likely to be due to climate change. .
The key: rising night temperatures
The tool shows the clear impact of climate change on nighttime temperatures in the United States.
"Most of the South, from California to Florida, is at Level 2 or higher. A few places reach our maximum Level 5, indicating conditions are more than five times more likely due to climate change. The upper Midwest also has a large area with a significant climate footprint," Pershing said.
Night temperatures are not usually given as much attention as daytime temperatures, where the absolute extremes are recorded, but the truth is that "they can be even more impactful in terms of health and economy."
Extreme heat is bad for everyone's health...and it's only getting worse
A factor that adds in this direction is that in the United States many houses were designed with the intention that they could be cooled at night simply by opening the windows and that "is no longer viable" in many places.
Are heat waves coming like the ones from the 30s?
Millions of Americans have been under heat wave alert even before the start of summer, which arrives this Tuesday with the solstice.
What will happen to these phenomena?
"It is very difficult to predict exactly when and where, but we can say that they will be more intense, longer, more frequent and in more places," says Perish.
Recent history records the time of the Dust Bowl, in the 1930s, as the time of the worst drought and heat waves.
A dust storm approaches the city of Elkhart, Kansas, in 1937. (Credit: MPI/Getty Images)
The summer of 2021 tied 1936 for the hottest temperatures.
And, says Pershing, "It's not going to take too long to see events of that magnitude again."
So even if he's not much of a statesman, you can believe Homer in one thing: The trend is that this is the coolest summer of the rest of your life.
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