The fall of Seville, the symbol of Andalusian socialism

The province of Seville was the red dot that always remained immovable in favor of the PSOE on any map of any election - municipal, regional, general or European - held in Spain.

It was the beacon that illuminated the safe haven of the Socialists in the face of any onslaught from the adversary (such as the absolute majorities of José María Aznar and Mariano Rajoy).

It was a symbol for the PSOE, Andalusian and national.

Until last Sunday, when the tsunami of Juan Manuel Moreno's PP dyed that territory blue for the first time in its history.

The popular ones have obtained nine of the 18 deputies distributed by the province of Seville, six more than three and a half years ago, jumping from 147,078 votes in 2018 to 366,389 now, a rise of 23.6 points.

Not only has it gobbled up the seats of Cs, but it has taken one from the PSOE, which has remained at five representatives, falling to 23,834 supports.

Four out of 10 votes have gone to the PP, which has been imposed in the five most populous cities in the territory: Seville, Dos Hermanas, Alcalá de Guadaíra, Utrera (where the popular do not have a single mayor) and Mairena del Aljarafe .

A historic turnaround, but one that is in tune with the general result harvested by Moreno.

"The turnaround in the province consolidates the change of cycle in Andalusia that had already been preparing since 2012, when the PP won with 40% of the votes," says Ángel Cazorla, professor of Political Science at the University of Granada.

“This is the verification of a deeper fact, which is the

of the PSOE from its electorate and the de-ideologization of the left, not only the socialist one”, he abounds.

The political scientist also highlights Moreno's strategy: "That moderate discourse has allowed the normalization of a right-wing government in Andalusia."

Although they share the diagnosis, in the PP they recognize that the results obtained in Seville have exceeded their expectations.

“This has been the prototypical province of socialism, that of Felipe González, that of Alfonso Guerra.

It was the only mainstay that was maintained election after election, but that has led to fed up because many voters perceive that the current socialism is not that of González or that of Guerra and also Juanma and his speech do not provoke rejection”, defends Toni Martín, deputy secretary general of the Andalusian PP.

If the province of Seville was until Sunday the stronghold of the PSOE, the town of Dos Hermanas (136,250 inhabitants) was its talisman.

The velodrome witnessed the historic rallies of González and Guerra, with crowds unattainable for the rest of the matches;

and the Lake of Life in Entrenúcleos was the scene of the reconquest of power of the party by Pedro Sánchez in the 2016 primaries. He also gave his first rally there after being appointed general secretary of the regional PSOE Juan Espadas.

At the end of May, at the municipal booth at the Dos Hermanas Fair, Sánchez supported the candidate for the Board together with nine ministers.

Since the PCE won the municipal elections in 1979, the PSOE had not lost any appointment with the polls in Dos Hermanas.

In these elections, however, Moreno has achieved 38% of the votes compared to 25.46% for the PSOE.

In the general elections of 2019, the Socialists obtained more than twice the number of votes than the Popular ones.

Reconnect with another society

The surprising change in trend in the municipality occupied almost all the breakfast gatherings on the terraces of the center of Dos Hermanas this Monday.

“In the end, Moreno has not started to lift the rugs, as he promised, and that has earned him some confidence from disenchanted socialist voters,” considers Ana, a 64-year-old retiree, who acknowledges that although she is on the left, on Sunday she was not to vote because "she is disappointed with the parties".

“I think that the vote for the PP is also a vote of punishment for the PSOE, which had also begun its collapse years ago and the EREs have not helped anything either,” José María, 65, responds.

“But in four years he will leave, because he is going to have to manage health, education.

These are not going to last here for 40 years, like the PSOE”, points out Ana.

The former mayor of the Nazarene town, Francisco Toscano, with a service record of 10 absolute majorities in the 10 municipal elections he has run for since 1983, shares a good part of the reflections of his neighbors.

"Moreno has carried out an intelligent, flat campaign, without ideology, selling stability and security in times of uncertainty, and it is normal to a certain extent for people to revalidate their confidence after a first term, but now is when he is going to have to manage" , he warns.

“We have all also contributed to the fear of the extreme right.

The message has benefited Moreno.”

Toscano believes that excessive criticism of the central government has also been able to exert a deterrent effect on the socialist voter, but he admits: “Society is different from that of 40 years ago.

Although there are social inequalities, citizens seek stability more than punctual messages, and that is where the PSOE has to resume the connection with the citizenry”.

He gives his own municipality as an example, where young couples who "are worried about their own problems and do not take into account what their parents or grandparents went through" have settled.

“The vote of confidence in Moreno, that vote given, is to a legislature, it is a vote that will have to be earned with its management,” warns political scientist Antonio Conde, who points out that this tendency to value the management and the candidate above of the initials, as the PP has done with Moreno, could be extended to other electoral calls in other areas.

That pragmatism of the electorate is also the key to the electoral turnaround for José Luis Villar, professor of Constitutional Law at Pablo Olavide University.

"I have the feeling that in these elections management, the pragmatic, has been above ideologies," he says.

The management is what has made María, 81, close to the PSOE and faithful to Toscano and his successor in the Nasrid mayor's office, vote in these regional elections for the PP: "I hesitated until the last moment, but in the end I am from the center and what he did not want was for Vox to enter.

Only resist La Rinconada

In emblematic towns of socialist power, the PP has also bowed to the socialists.

In El Pedroso (2,038 inhabitants), epicenter of the case of the ERE, the popular have surpassed the PSOE by 374 votes against 312. In Alcalá de Guadaíra (75,546 inhabitants) the PP went from 4,505 to 13,413 votes, more than triple;

in Utrera (51,145 inhabitants), where the popular do not have representation in the City Council, they also tripled the results obtained in 2018, achieving 9,341 votes, 4,406 more than the socialists;

In Mairena del Aljarafe (46,895 inhabitants), the fourth most populous city in Seville, the PP doubles the PSOE.

The Andalusian capital has also seen support for the PP grow by up to 20 points.

Only two of the 11 Sevillian districts into which the city is divided continue to prefer the PSOE: Norte and Amate, where the Socialists tend to reap the best results at the national level in the big cities.

The PSOE's barn of votes in the province of Seville has become a wasteland, but one of its traditional fiefdoms has resisted the onslaught of the PP.

In La Rinconada, where Javier Fernández, the general secretary of the Sevillian Socialists, governs, not only has the hegemony of the formation been maintained, but it has also increased in votes.

Of course, the PP has also maintained its upward trend there, tripling its support.

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