"NATO's Achilles heel": Military expert explains the importance of Kaliningrad

Created: 06/22/2022, 21:50

By: Tom Offinger

Kaliningrad has been on everyone's lips since last weekend.

But what about the Russian exclave?

Military expert William Alberque provides the answer.

Kaliningrad - How long will the bloody conflict in Ukraine continue?

This question has been the subject of speculation for four months now, but there is still no clear answer - not least because of the ongoing fighting in Ukraine.

In the past few days, however, the focus has been on a special city that could play an important role far away from the war: Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea, squeezed between Poland, Lithuania and Belarus.

Dispute over Kaliningrad: "Blockade" or regular procedure?

On Saturday, Lithuania banned the transit of goods that are on the EU sanctions list through its territory - and thus to Kaliningrad.

The city, which belonged to Germany until the end of World War II and bore the name Königsberg, has since been cut off from 40 to 50 percent of transit from Russia.

While Russia's Foreign Ministry speaks of an "openly hostile" action and even threatened "retaliation", Lithuania's Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis emphasizes the legitimacy of the action: "It's not Lithuania doing something - it's the European sanctions that were imposed on June 17 in come into force."

The EU, on the other hand, emphasized that this was by no means a “blockade” and that overland transit traffic had neither been stopped nor banned.

As the main base of the Baltic Fleet, Kaliningrad is an important strategic city for Russia, which could even decide the outcome of the war in Ukraine, as military expert William Alberque from the "International Institute for Strategic Studies" explains to

.

Kaliningrad: Nuclear missiles could reach Berlin

“The city has always been a relatively large bastion of Russian troops, it is a very important naval base for them.

They have artillery, rockets and planes there and also a nuclear weapons cache that has just been renovated,” says Alberque.

So-called SS-26 Iskander missiles can be found in this camp, which have a range of around 500 kilometers.

"Fired from Kaliningrad, they could actually reach Berlin," warns the military expert.

These missiles are actually equipped with a conventional warhead, but could also be equipped with a nuclear warhead if necessary.

The city on the Baltic Sea also plays an important role in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine.

As Alberque explains, Russia has relocated large parts of its naval facilities in the sea area from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad, and numerous landing craft have also been brought from there across the Mediterranean to the Black Sea.

Kaliningrad: A city as a thorn in NATO's side

The special geographical situation in the Baltic States has also been a thorn in the side of NATO for some time: the land border between Poland and Lithuania is delimited by Kaliningrad - the western military alliance speaks of the so-called Suwalki Gap.

"The Russians could use Kaliningrad as a no-fly zone, making the area inaccessible to the enemy," Alberque said of "NATO's Achilles' heel."

With its troops in Pskov, Russia could then shoot down all incoming planes and thus gradually advance in the Baltic States.

"That has always been the great fear that emanates from the Suwalki gap and Kaliningrad." Therefore, the enclave also has many ground-based air defense systems of the Russian army, according to the expert.

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However, two other countries, namely Finland and Sweden, which both want to join NATO, could act as a relaxing factor.

By strengthening the alliances, Russia could come to the conclusion that the construct around Kaliningrad is no longer stable enough, Alberque believes: "Then the Kremlin could actually come back to the negotiating table to limit its risk in the region - and we would do that to do with and strengthen existing arms control agreements.

I'm not ruling that out as a possibility."

Kaliningrad: starting point for a new Russian policy

At the moment, however, he considers this development to be unlikely, since Putin is actively promoting war crimes.

"But I think that in the future we could end up with a Russia that is trying to reduce its risk and its own vulnerability in this region." (to)