After more than two years of difficulties, the restoration finally comes out of the water.
The activity of the sector returned to the green in May, according to the analysis of Food Service Vision, "
for the first time since the start of the health crisis
", at the beginning of 2020. It increased by 4% in value last month compared to May 2019, indicates the latest “Strategic Review” of the consulting and study firm specializing in out-of-home consumption, which has just been carried out.
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A figure that rises to +7% for commercial catering alone.
Collective catering, that is to say canteens and other self-service outlets, “
still remains behind
”, notes Food Service Vision.
“
Mainly under the effect of teleworking
”, comments François Blouin, president and founder of the firm.
For their part, food businesses (bakeries, pastry shops, butchers-caterers, etc.), which had already held up well during the health crisis, “
continue their positive dynamic with growth of 12% in May
”.
This resumption of activity, François Blouin explains it by a set of factors.
On the one hand, "
people are back in restaurants, since 96% of French people who frequented a restaurant before the health crisis returned there over the period February-May, i.e. the highest level ever known
", indicates the expert.
Lifting of restrictions and favorable weather
Added to this is “
the pleasure engine
”: “
despite the war in Ukraine and the political crisis, consumers want to find conviviality, exchange, which has benefited table catering and bars
” .
On-site catering is at its highest level of attendance since the start of the health crisis: 84% in May, compared to, for example, 68% in February.
“
This is combined with take-out and delivery consumption which is setting in, after having developed strongly during the crisis
”, adds François Blouin, who also underlines the role of the restart of European and North American tourism. in the recovery.
“We see that working people make more use of the bowl, the lunch box, in short the meal prepared at home or bought in supermarkets.
»
François Blouin, founding president of Food Service Vision
The favorable context has something to do with these phenomena.
The firm cites in its report the lifting of health restrictions linked to Covid-19, the return to normal for trade shows and fairs, or even the favorable weather and the positive results of the Easter holidays.
As for consumption in the workplace, this is benefiting from the “
return of working people to the office
” (91% in May 2022, compared to
83% a year earlier).
The latest data from Dares, dated March, indicated that the share of teleworkers had fallen further and returned that month to a level close to that of November 2021.
Higher costs passed on to menus
For this type of consumption, “
we see that the working people resort more to the bowl, the lunch box, in short the meal prepared at home or bought in supermarkets
”, notes François Blouin.
Nearly six out of ten meals are now bought in supermarkets or prepared at home, compared to five out of ten three months ago, reports the Food Service Vision study.
An evolution “
due to concern about purchasing power
”, believes François Blouin, in a highly inflationary context.
The increase in the price level reached +5.2% over one year in May, according to INSEE.
For food alone, the increase was +4.2%.
This is the same proportion as that applied by independent restaurateurs on their menu since February, according to a survey carried out by the GNI (National Group of Independents) and Food Service Vision.
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A “
moderate
” increase, judge François Blouin, in view of the cost increases suffered by the restoration.
The increases are particularly significant for certain products, in particular mustard (+23.9% in the second quarter), beef (+28.2%) and French fries (+14.6%).
Thus, the cost of materials for a fast food restaurant, for example, increased by 20% between October 2021 and April 2022, and by 9% for a pizzeria.
If the summer looks bright for the sector, according to François Blouin, due to positive signals on the tourist season to come, “
the great unknown relates to the start of the school
year ”, he judges.
"
We will accumulate inflation which will have risen again, political uncertainty which will weigh on decisions and economic dynamics, and we will still feel the consequences of the Chinese crisis and the war in Ukraine
", he lists.
Not to mention the threat of a new wave of Covid-19 potentially caused by its new variants.