Enlarge image
Ursula von der Leyen and Volodymr Zelenskyi in Kyiv (archive)
Photo: Valentyn Ogirenko / REUTERS
On the thirteenth floor of the Brussels Commission building hangs a plaque that is attracting a lot of attention these days.
Just recently, the overview not far from Ursula von der Leyen's office listed ten countries that were reluctant to grant Ukraine the status of a candidate country - including such veteran member states as Portugal or the Netherlands.
The board is now empty.
Unless something unexpected happens, the President of the European Commission will get a unanimous yes for your candidate proposal at this Thursday's EU summit, which she has charged with a great deal of pathos in recent days.
"We want," she says, "that the Ukrainians can live the European dream with us."
With the decision, the international community would send a signal of unity, especially in the direction of Moscow.
The message is that Ukraine does not belong in Russia's zone of influence, but in the camp of the West.
With all the consequences that this has for further arms deliveries, financial aid and one's own willingness to reform.
Because the heads of the 27 member governments are also aware of this: When 40 million Ukrainians are admitted to the international community, a lot will have to change in the EU.
Orbán attracted attention with remarkable lateral shots
It is almost certain that the Ukraine will receive the status of a candidate for accession, even if Brussels, to be on the safe side, tried to dampen expectations until the very end.
"I would like to say that the matter is already settled," said an EU diplomat.
But you never know whether one of the heads of state or government might withhold his consent in order to force concessions elsewhere.
The prime candidate for this would be Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who recently caught the eye with cross-shots that were remarkable even by his standards.
First he temporarily blocked the sixth package of sanctions against Russia in order to have the orthodox patriarch Kirill taken off the criminal list, then he torpedoed the EU resolution for a European minimum tax for companies.
Quite a few in Brussels now fear that the Commission could turn a blind eye to the ongoing rule of law proceedings against Hungary in order to appease Orbán.
For example, the fact that the Commission has not fully informed the budget controllers in the EU Parliament about its recent warning letter to the Budapest government arouses suspicion.
Without the “exact wording”, however, “the legal basis of the allegations cannot be understood”, according to a fire letter from seven responsible budget parliamentarians to the commission.
Is von der Leyen ready to make concessions to Orbán after all?
"That would send the wrong signal," says Green finance expert Daniel Freund, "and would do efforts to establish rule-of-law procedures in the EU a disservice."
However, there were no concrete signs of Orbán blocking Ukraine's candidate status before the summit - which is why Brussels is cautiously optimistic that the decision will go through without problems.
Then there would have to be a turning point: with the forthcoming expansion of the community to the East, in financial and foreign policy and in our own organization.
An EU with possibly more than 30 members, each of which can veto important issues, would hardly be able to act.
The heads of government also want to talk about this at their summit.
The only problem is that they have more questions than answers.
How is Brussels doing on the Western Balkans issue?
This applies, for example, to the EU's relationship with the Western Balkan countries, which are now likely to be even more frustrated than they already are.
Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo have been trying for years to join the EU – and now have to watch as Ukraine, Moldova and possibly Georgia pass them by.
Although a meeting with the heads of state and government of the Western Balkan countries is planned for Thursday morning before the EU summit, it is unsurprisingly perceived by them as an unsatisfactory consolation.
Serbia, Albania and North Macedonia have meanwhile even publicly considered a boycott of the Western Balkans summit - and justified this with Bulgaria's blocking of North Macedonia's and Albania's efforts to join.
Only on Wednesday did they declare that they wanted to come to Brussels.
However, the summit will hardly change anything about the deadlock – because even if Bulgaria were to give up its veto against the start of accession negotiations, the hurdles would still be high.
Because some other EU countries are also strictly against letting the Western Balkan countries in.
One of the main arguments are the weaknesses of the EU itself, in particular the fact that it can only make unanimous decisions in important policy areas such as foreign, security and financial policy.
If Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and five Western Balkan countries were to be admitted, the EU would finally be unable to act.
The federal government also warns of this.
"Before a new member state can join, the EU will of course also have to develop further," says a Berlin government official.
Another argument put forward by the critics is the rule of law deficiencies in the candidate countries, where corruption is often widespread.
Here, too, the federal government insists on compliance with EU rules.
"We will certainly all make sure together that there will be no discounts or shortcuts," it says.
»No one should be parked between«
That is why alternatives should be considered at the summit.
At the dinner, French President Emmanuel Macron is to present his ideas for a new alliance, particularly with the EU's eastern partners.
A "very open discussion" will be held about this and "thoughts will be given as to how new forms of cooperation may be possible," says the federal government - even if this is of course not intended to replace the accession process: "No one should be parked in between, so to speak." .
Other countries are also signaling support for Macron's idea.
"We need a forum where everyone from Iceland to Ukraine can meet," says a diplomat from a western EU country.
Such a forum, in which one could also talk about security policy, simply does not exist at the moment.
On Friday, the second day of their meeting, the heads of government will then deal with a no less unpleasant topic: the economy.
Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will speak to the euro countries about the economic situation, and what she will tell the government is unlikely to lift the mood.
The escalating Ukraine war, that much is certain, will continue to drive up energy prices and inflation.
Worse still: If Putin actually blocks the flow of gas to Europe to a large extent, as the responsible EU Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni already conceded at the most recent meeting of European finance ministers, the economy on the continent will very likely collapse.
Inflation and recession at the same time - the continent could hardly face an uglier combination of economic diseases.
Not least, this would put heavily indebted euro countries such as Italy, where interest rates have risen much faster in recent weeks than in Germany, for example.
If the trend continues, Lagarde wants to buy Italian government bonds on a large scale in order to counteract a threatening wave of speculation against the euro.
An announcement that not only contradicts their stated goal of fighting inflation.
It could also revitalize old conflicts.
A tangle of problems
While the northern countries are pushing for such programs to be linked to political reforms, the southern countries insist on the most unconditional aid possible.
It is not just the notorious critics of monetary union who are warning that the euro zone is heading for a new crucial test in this case.
It is a tangle of problems that European governments must unravel.
The forthcoming summit can only be the prelude.
The continent needs a new balance between the geopolitical realities and its economic opportunities, between the new challenge in the East and the old conflicts between North and South.
Otherwise the European dream could quickly turn into a nightmare for Ukraine.