Harmless or dramatic?
Lauterbach has three scenarios for Corona autumn - one is the most likely
Created: 06/23/2022, 10:47 am
By: Stephanie Munk
Lauterbach and the health ministers of the federal states are discussing the Corona autumn.
There are three scenarios for the cold season - one is the most likely.
Berlin - It almost seemed to have disappeared from people's minds, but the corona virus is still there - and recently the incidence has even been rising again.
Worries about autumn are all the more serious.
It is expected that the corona numbers will then really go up again.
But: It is unclear how much the number of infections will increase and which coronavirus variants will then circulate.
Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) apparently wants to be prepared for anything.
In a paper called "Corona Autumn Strategy", which is available to the AFP news agency, the Ministry of Health describes three possible scenarios for the Corona autumn in Germany.
On Wednesday and Thursday (June 22/23), the health ministers will discuss a strategy against it.
There will be a press conference at 1 p.m.
Corona: Three scenarios for autumn - from harmless to dramatic
According to the
editorial network Germany (RND)
, which also has the paper,
these
three scenarios for the Corona autumn in Germany are described:
Best scenario:
In Germany, a variant of the coronavirus is circulating that is more harmless than the currently dominant omicron variant.
Only the protection of risk groups is necessary.
Medium-heavy scenario:
The dominant virus variant in autumn causes illness in a similar way to the current omicron variant.
The incidence and number of absenteeism increases throughout the fall and winter.
The intensive care units are “moderately” loaded.
In order to reduce absences from work, nationwide measures such as compulsory masks, distance and regional contact restrictions would be necessary.
Worst case scenario:
A variant of the coronavirus emerges that is more dangerous than Omicron and is also very contagious.
The health system is heavily burdened and measures such as the obligation to wear masks and the requirement to keep distance should last until spring 2023.
Corona autumn: Lauterbach has three scenarios - one is the most likely
Lauterbach's ministry considers the medium-heavy scenario to be the most likely.
"Based on these considerations, scenario 2 appears to be the most likely corona autumn scenario," it says.
"This scenario could extend over a long period of time." Without protective measures, 1,500 corona deaths per week in Germany can be assumed, it is said.
Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) has important decisions about Corona ahead of him.
(Archive image) © Michael Kappeler/dpa
In order to cope with the forecast increase in the number of corona cases in autumn, Lauterbach has developed a strategy with seven points - you can read all the details about Lauterbach's seven-point plan here.
Lauterbach plans to promote vaccination again, especially among children and the elderly.
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Not all citizens should be tested free of charge, but only people with symptoms, small children or people with many contacts, for example before big events.
The treatment for corona disease should be improved, and people in care facilities should be better protected.
In addition, hospitals should report their corona data more reliably.
Corona: The aim of Lauterbach's strategy - avoiding the dead and seriously ill
The goal for autumn should be to reduce the number of corona deaths and serious illnesses.
In addition, the intensive care units should not be overloaded and the critical infrastructure should be kept running despite the large number of people infected with corona.
The key points should be decided before the summer break, Lauterbach said on Thursday (June 23) before the health ministers discussed the matter.
Work is already underway on six points of his seven-point plan, and negotiations on the subject of compulsory masks will begin when a corresponding expert report is available.
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Corona: Off for free tests for everyone - Lauterbach defends
Lauterbach also defended his plan to restrict free corona citizen tests.
They should be used in a targeted manner, i.e. where they bring the greatest benefit.
Lauterbach cited the high cost of the tests and many false positive tests as justification.
“The quality should be increased, the tests should be used more sensibly, the costs should remain within limits.
I think we'll just get more out of the tests then," said the minister.
Meanwhile, the infection curve continues to point upwards.
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) gave the nationwide seven-day incidence on Thursday morning (June 23) at 532.9.
smu/afp/dpa
