A few months ago, the French left could only be said to be a mess, and many commentators predicted that future French politics would be dominated by the middle forces represented by President Emmanuel Macron and the leadership by Marine Le Pen. In the confrontation between the extreme right forces, the left wing with many small parties can probably only watch from the sidelines.
In the more than two months since the first round of French presidential elections on April 10, the situation has changed significantly. For the first time in 25 years, the left-wing factions have united the far-left "Indomitable France" (LFI), which was regarded as heresy in the past. Under the leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The results of the second round of congressional voting this Sunday (June 19) will tell us how high this left-wing wave can reach.
As of the deadline for this article on June 19, the results of the second round of parliamentary voting have not yet been released, but judging from the poll estimates after the first round of voting, among the 577 seats in the National Assembly, Macron's "Ensemble" The coalition will probably lose its current clear majority, with Mélenchon's New People's Union for Ecology and Society (NUPES) overtaking Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) to take on Common.
On June 16, Macron visited Kyiv with the leaders of Germany, Italy and Romania and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
His pre-election trip was seen as an attempt to downplay his own role in the congressional elections.
(Associated Press)
An Ipsos poll before the election estimated that the "common" would get between 265 and 305 seats. The highest point is not far from the threshold of more than half of the 289 seats, but it is far less than the current nearly 350 seats. Marine Le Pen, who won an astonishing 41 percent of the vote in the second round of the presidential vote, won 140 to 180 seats, with only 20 to 50 seats.
Another pollster, Ifop, forecasts 270 to 300 seats, 160 to 190 seats, and 25 to 45 seats, respectively.
After the first round of voting, NUPES, which received the same 25.7% of the votes as "Common", can still enter the second round of voting in at least 500 constituencies, of which nearly 200 advanced to meet "Common", and NUPES and "Common" About 270 seats are directly contested.
From this point of view, this Sunday's vote, regardless of whether Macron can only maintain a narrow majority, the left-wing alliance of NUPES will become a major force in French politics in the next five years.
Looking back at the run-up to the presidential election, the unity of the left at this moment is not within the sphere of imagination...
For details, please read the 322nd issue of "Hong Kong 01" e-Weekly Newsletter (June 20, 2022) "
Is the French parliamentary election welcoming a wave of left-wing waves a fundamental change or a flash in the pan?
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