The three reasons why the fifth election will be different from its four predecessors

If there is no last-minute dramatic surprise, next week Israel will go to another election.

It is easy to say that what was will be - but it can be estimated that the fact that a person named Lapid will sit in the Prime Minister's Office, that Abbas and Tibi will not give up any vote and that this is Netanyahu's last chance - will devour the cards.

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23/06/2022

Thursday, 23 June 2022, 22:22 Updated: Friday, 24 June 2022, 10:32

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In the video: Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid's statement on going to the polls (Contact)

The Knesset is still making final efforts to stop the clock and form an alternative government, but if there is no last-minute dramatic surprise, next week Israel will go to the fifth election in three and a half years.

Looking at the first polls published this week in parallel with the movement to disperse the Knesset, it is easy and discouraging to assume that what was is what it will be;

The Netanyahu bloc does not reach 61 seats, and the opposing bloc cannot form a government without relying on the PM or the joint list. Well, without arguing with Einstein's genius, here are three reasons why the fifth election might still be different from its four predecessors.

Will be able to position himself as head of the bloc.

Lapid (Photo: Flash 90, Yonatan Zindel)

1. That Yair Lapid will be the Prime Minister

In all the tangle campaigns so far, the prime minister has been Benjamin Netanyahu, who knew how to make good use of the reins in his hands for campaign purposes.

From the plan of the century for the release of Naama Issachar to the Avraham agreements, the Likud leveraged Netanyahu's political-security efforts to brand "another league" that intensified round after round.

This time, it seems, Lapid will be in the Prime Minister's Office and will control the agenda from there. This is the first time in 13 years that the government will be in the hands of someone from the center left, and this may be significant in the election campaign. Gantz and Merav Michaeli, while at the same time stimulating the right-wing camp, which will be more determined to return power to it from the opposing camp.

In the Prime Minister's Office, Lapid has an opportunity to prove himself and rise to greatness, but also a great risk.

The forthcoming election campaign is expected to be particularly long - more than a few months, long for the unknown, and for unforeseen external events, which tend to erupt in Israel's tense strategic reality.

A significant escalation in the shadow war against Iran, Hezbollah retaliation, or a breach of the peace from Gaza, for example, will put Lapid's leadership to the test, and the way he handles crises could elevate him - or crush him - during the election campaign.

Opposite him, of course, will stand an experienced and militant opponent, and for the first time in decades, an incumbent prime minister will run in the election against a former prime minister.

For Netanyahu, who is known as a fan of "we or they" campaigns, Lapid provides dream framing, and Lapid will also use a head-to-head battle with Netanyahu to position himself as the leader of his bloc.

Therefore, it is not inconceivable that this time, unlike the previous four election campaigns, the two candidates for prime minister will face each other for confrontation.

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Will fight for the narrative.

Tibi and Abbas (Photo: Official Website, Spokeswoman for the Joint List)

2. That Mansour Abbas and Ahmad Tibi will awaken Arab society

The fifth election campaign will be launched after a year unparalleled in Israeli politics, which can be called the "Arab Spring."

When, on the one hand, Prime Minister Mansour Abbas and his friends who joined the Bennett-Lapid government and learned to be part of a coalition, and on the other hand Ayman Odeh and Ahmad Tibi who played a crucial role in the bitter struggles of the opposition, Arab MKs were at the center of political erosion and decision-making. In

the election campaign, Abbas will try to convince that the government may have fallen, but the attempt to cooperate with a Zionist government has failed, while together they will try to convince the exact opposite and discredit and diminish the achievements that the PM will sell in plans and budgets.

The confrontation between the two parties is expected to generate interest, and it can frame before the Arab public an election issue with strategic significance: for or against the continuation of the partnership with the Zionist parties, for all that this implies.

Traditionally, including in the four campaigns of the tangle, voter turnout in the Arab sector was significantly lower than among Jews, and in the last election dropped to a low of less than 50%.

That is, it is the only electorate that has not reached maximum utilization.

If the political awakening of the past year returns the Arabs to flock to the polls - the post-election political map could look completely different.

More popular than ever.

Netanyahu (Photo: Flash 90, Yonatan Zindel)

3. Because this may be the last ball in Netanyahu's barrel

With Lapid as prime minister in front of his eyes, and after a year in the opposition far from the pleasures of power, the Likud expects that it will be easier to move voters to the polls, and that the growing trend in the past year will bring Netanyahu to the promised land of 61 seats.

He is indeed more popular than ever, but to date, in none of the polls, even the most optimistic, has he failed to cross the coveted continuum that would allow him to form a government after the fifth election.

If Netanyahu again fails to bring in 61, some of his men fear, it could lead to his end.

True, this did not happen after elections A, B, and C, and not even for the fourth time after he lost power, and yet, what he was is not necessarily what he will be.

Already now, some ultra-Orthodox factions are hinting at closed talks that next time they will consider dismantling the alliance in favor of another government, and senior Likud members seeking to succeed him will find it difficult to come to terms, again, with a failure that will keep them out of power.

Maybe next time they will decide to take action.

Therefore, among other things, Netanyahu has been trying in recent days to look for ways to avoid elections.

He, too, knows that they pose a tremendous political risk.

Torah Judaism chairman Moshe Gafni and Interior Minister Ayelet Shaked ran in international meetings and talks to form an alternative government in the current Knesset, with Bnei Gantz or Gideon Saar or both. If so, and the dissolution of the Knesset next week will become a fait accompli, Netanyahu will also have to deal with the unknown of the fifth election.

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• Yair Lapid

• Benjamin Netanyahu

• Mansour Abbas

• Ahmed Tibi

• Elections