Direct Erdogan showdown with Finland and Sweden on Tuesday – NATO boss has a bad premonition

Created: 06/27/2022, 16:31

By: Florian Naumann

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey.

© Depo Photos / Imago Images

Sweden and Finland want to join NATO - but Turkey is preventing that for the time being.

There will be direct talks on Tuesday.

Erdogan brakes before the start.

• Sweden

  and

  Finland

  seem blocked on the way to

  NATO

  : Turkey says no.

• Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the leaders of the Scandinavian countries will meet on Tuesday (June 28) on the fringes of the NATO summit.

• An adviser to the Turkish President dampens expectations in advance.

• This news ticker on the talks between Finland, Sweden and Turkey will be continuously updated on Tuesday.

Preliminary report from June 27:

Stockholm/Madrid – The dispute with Turkey over Sweden and Finland's NATO membership is entering a new round: the leaders of the three countries will meet in person on Tuesday.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finland's President Sauli Niinistö speak on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid.

In the midst of the Ukraine war, the date is likely to become even more delicate.

Because Ankara makes it clear in advance: Erdogan's government wants to stick to its demands.

The Foreign Minister from Stockholm is also skeptical - and even NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg did not want to "promise anything" on Monday, shortly after the alliance made an extremely offensive announcement.

Even apparently abstruse mind games could remain up to date.

Sweden and Finland want NATO: Erdogan advisor is already dampening hopes

Preparations began the day before the Erdogan meeting announced by Niinistö, among others.

Preliminary talks were held at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Monday.

Andersson even traveled there personally.

Above all, Sweden is the target of Turkish demands.

Among other things, Erdogan's government is demanding the extradition of several people regarded as supporters of the banned Kurdish Workers' Party PKK or the Gülen movement - and the classification of the Kurdish-Syrian militia YPG as terrorist.

The YPG was and is an ally of Western countries in the Syrian war.

All signs point to tough negotiations.

"Participating in this summit does not mean that we are resigning from our position," said Erdogan's adviser Ibrahim Kalin on Turkish broadcaster Haberturk.

"We're negotiating.

It has many phases," he added.

Sweden's Foreign Minister Ann Linde called the talks so far "intensive".

Andersson and Erdogan only spoke on Saturday – without clear results.

"I don't think we can go all the way, but there are clear ways to take concrete steps," said Linde, according to the Swedish public broadcaster SVT.

She indicated rapprochement on the subject of the PKK - there was agreement on this point.

"That's why I believe that the Turkish side recognizes our seriousness in the discussions."

Erdogan under pressure: calculation behind NATO blockade for Sweden and Finland?

However, for weeks there has also been speculation about domestic political and power-strategic calculations behind Erdogan's demands.

The Turkish President is under pressure in view of high domestic inflation rates.

Tough announcements to the West, but also pressure on the PKK, are PR trumps for the presidential party, the AKP.

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On the wish list could be less headwind, for example from the USA on human rights issues - or a recently faltering arms deal for US jets.

In this case, a cautious or even more resolute concession on the part of Sweden could remain fruitless.

However, US President Joe Biden and Erdogan may meet for talks at the NATO summit in Madrid;

that's what Biden's national security adviser Jake Sullivan indicated on Monday.

In any case, Biden will continue to travel to the NATO appointment after the G7 summit;

His wife Jill is already in Spain.

Sweden-Finland accession: Even Stoltenberg is skeptical – unorthodox ideas are circulating

Stoltenberg - who also invited to the Scandinavian-Turkish meeting on Tuesday - was also skeptical at first.

The goal is, of course, to “make progress”.

However, he could not make a promise, the NATO Secretary General said at a press conference on Monday.

It is too early to name concrete goals of the conversation.

In May, after years of fundamental rejection and weeks of debate over the Ukraine war, Sweden and Finland decided to apply to join NATO.

However, a unanimous vote by the NATO states is required to start the membership process.

Turkey is currently refusing to give its consent.

An exclusion of a country is not provided for in the NATO statutes.

In view of this situation, unorthodox proposals have also appeared on the media agenda – such as security guarantees from the other 29 NATO countries for Sweden and Finland, instead of rapid accession for the two Scandinavian countries.

Nothing seems unthinkable at the moment.

However, a NATO rift would probably be grist for the mill of the one who triggered the current crisis: Vladimir Putin.

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