The Russian armed forces are making only sluggish progress in the Ukraine war.
There are reasons for that.
A military expert sees another Trump in Ukraine.
Kyiv/Munich - In the Donbass, the Ukraine conflict has been raging particularly violently for weeks.
This map shows where the Ukraine war is raging.
Both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russia's ruler and warmonger Vladimir Putin see the area as crucial for the further course of the war.
As Ukraine faces a historic day in terms of its EU accession status, Russian forces are stepping up attacks in the east of the country.
The focus is on the strategically important city of Lyssychansk in the Luhansk region.
The Russian military is trying to approach the city from several sides.
Ukrainian troops are threatened with encirclement in Lysychansk.
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The bridge from Lysychansk to neighboring Sievjerodonetsk was almost completely destroyed.
© IMAGO/Madeleine Kelly
Ukraine News: Attrition tactics and time-gain tactics seem to be working
But Putin doesn't seem to be moving fast enough.
The Kremlin chief is said to have seconded the commander-in-chief of the Ukraine invasion for the second time.
The battle in Donbass has turned into a battle of attrition for both sides.
Again and again there are reports of Russian advances and recaptures by Ukraine.
The Ukrainian armed forces, thanks to their great resilience, managed to wear down the morale of the Russian troops and buy time.
Important, because this is the only way western war equipment can be procured and deployed.
Ukraine-News: Ex-General sees coming months as crucial for the course of the war
The Australian ex-general and military expert Mick Ryan assumes that the coming months will be of crucial importance for the further course of the war.
Ryan observes an approaching state of exhaustion on both sides, which will soon lead to an "operational pause in which fighting will be significantly reduced," Ryan writes in a recent analysis in the
Sydney Morning Herald
.
During this break, Ryan writes, there is an opportunity to regenerate troops and to position Western weapons material - including the self-propelled howitzers supplied by Germany.
Ukraine would have achieved a goal.
The Ukraine War in Pictures - Destruction, Resistance and Hope
The Ukraine War in Pictures - Destruction, Resistance and Hope
Ukraine-News: Military expert sees guerrilla warfare by Ukrainian forces
But the expert sees another way in which Ukrainian armed forces can ruin Russian morale.
Ryan speaks of a partisan struggle that is already evident in the Russian-occupied cities of Cherson, Melitopol, Berdyansk and Kremenna.
Attacks against Russian soldiers and Ukrainian renegades have increased there.
Ryan pointed out that Ukraine's parliament passed "Basics of National Resistance" back in May 2021.
“Furthermore, in the run-up to the war, weapons caches appear to have been set up in various locations in Ukraine.
Small teams of military specialists are likely to be training resistance cells across the South,” Ryan writes in the
Sydney Morning Herald
.
The aim of partisan or guerrilla warfare is to "catch the attention of an occupying army, slowly weakening its capacity and morale in order to prepare for conventional offensives that will liberate this area."
(mt)
List of rubrics: © IMAGO/Madeleine Kelly