A former student of the École Normale Supérieure, Christophe Bouillaud has been an associate professor of political science at the Grenoble Institute of Political Studies since 1999 and an associate professor of social sciences. He specializes in Italian politics and international relations.
FIGAROVOX. - The center-left wins over the right in the second round, and wins in the cities of Parma, Alessandria and Monza, in the North, and Catanzaro, in the South, as well as in Verona, a bastion of the right since 15 years old. How to interpret it?
Christophe BOUILLAUD. -
Each time, as these are municipal elections, it must be remembered that the result depends a lot on a local configuration.
In the first round, the alliance of rights had also won some cities.
It should also be remembered that this wave of municipal elections only concerned around two million voters this year, and that turnout fell in the second round to 42.8% (compared to 54.8% in the first round).
Any resemblance to the French situation in the 2020 municipal elections is not completely coincidental.
If we stick exclusively to national considerations, there is indeed a decline in the number of municipalities run by the alliance of the rights to the benefit of the alliance of the left.
This decline corresponds to more or less strong divisions according to the municipalities within the alliance of the rights.
As since the 1990s, the alliance of the rights is made up of three main components: the party of Silvio Berlusconi, Forza Italia (FI), which was for three decades (1994-2018) the dominant party of this alliance, the ally post-neofascist of the latter, currently called
Brothers of Italy
(FdI) and led by Giorgia Meloni, and finally the northerner-regionalist party of the
Northern League
(LN), which since 2013 has become the
League
(L) simply nationalist, under the direction of Matteo Salvini.
These three components are supported in the center by multiple small centrist formations generally stemming from the Christian Democrat (CD), and, during municipal elections, by ad hoc
local lists
formed around personalities.
The last year has seen another overrun: that of voting intentions as recorded by polls in favor of Giorgia Meloni's FdI, a small party still in 2018 which has thus become the "first party in Italy".
Christophe Bouillaud
It turns out that following the 2018 general election, the
League
by Matteo Salvini had become, thanks to his desire to carry loud and clear a xenophobic and anti-immigration discourse towards all Italians, in the south and in the center as well as in the north, thanks to his nationalization in a way, the dominant force of the alliance of the rights, overtaking for the first time in suffrage the party of S. Berlusconi.
The last year has seen another overrun: that of voting intentions as recorded by polls in favor of Giorgia Meloni's FdI, a small party still in 2018 which has thus become the "first party in Italy".
This new situation, where the third party on the right in 2018 has become the first in voting intentions in 2022, inevitably generates tensions within the right-wing coalition.
It is indeed understood that the leader of the first party of the coalition of the rights will be the candidate for the office of President of the Council in the event of victory of the latter.
Matteo Salvini therefore saw himself since 2018 as the natural candidate of the rights, since Silvio Berlusconi was now overwhelmed.
He now finds himself second.
He has a hard time cashing in on this snub.
Added to this are more political tensions within the right-wing coalition over the new Russian invasion of Ukraine.
As a reminder, S. Berlusconi was a very good friend of Vladimir Putin and of his close family.
Without being able to boast of such closeness with the latter, Matteo Salvini has never hidden since 2013 his admiration for the new Tsar.
He admired him both for his adherence to Christian and conservative values which Matteo Salvini himself wanted to defend in Italy, and also for the image of strong power that Putin propagated.
Conversely,
(PiS), currently in power in Warsaw, the worst enemies of the new Tsar.
These are not suddenly the same orientations in the face of Russian aggression.
FdI is Atlanticist and very "New Europe", while FI is rather "Old Europe" à la Macron, and Matteo Salvini continues to play a game that I would allow myself to describe as "Munich" with Putin's Russia, in l coat of pacifist Catholicism.
Matteo Salvini thus now says a lot of good things about Pope Francis after not having been far away a few years ago from seeing him as an illegitimate antipope for having preached the reception of immigrants and seeing in Benedict XVI the only true Catholic Pope.
For those who have followed the character's convolutions on these affairs of the papacy, the comic effect is guaranteed.
Whether with the League or with the FdI, it is the weakening of Berlusconi's moderate leadership and the lack of a replacement in the centre-right, linked to the European People's Party (EPP), which should be noted.
Christophe Bouillaud
The municipal elections saw a strong push to the right by the Fratelli d'Italia party, led by Giorgia Meloni. Should we see a rise in power of the radical right?
You have to see what is meant by radical right.
From the perspective of the long history of what has recently become FdI, there is no doubt that this party has its roots in that of electoral neo-fascism.
Giorgia Meloni did not fail to attend this spring the funeral of the widow of Giorgio Almirante, the historic leader of neofascism, in the midst of a whole tide of militants faithful to the (fascist) Idea.
"Donna Assunta" was born in 1921, and her husband, a former leader of the
Italian Social Republic
(1943-1945), died in 1988 after leading the
Italian Social Movement
(MSI) from 1969 to 1987. Clearly, Giorgia Meloni and many of her relatives are part of this tradition of electoral neo-fascism.
They are pursuing the desire to reintegrate the right from fascism, and also from monarchism, into the ordinary political game.
However, if the neo-fascist heritage is undeniable in FdI, it should not be forgotten that since the 1990s, it is the Northern League which has monopolized xenophobic and anti-immigration discourse.
Matteo Salvini was thus Minister of the Interior in 2018-2020, and he took great care to make his anti-immigration action as visible as possible.
All of Europe got wind of his stunts.
As a result, from the point of view of the activists, of those who are going to take direct action against what they consider to be an invasion of Italy by foreign hordes, or more generally against anything they consider to be a threat against European civilization, the two parties, L and FdI, are largely equal.
There was even a time when Matteo Salvini had approached other neo-fascists, those of
Casa Pound
, supporters of a “fascism of the 21st century”, who found the FdI electoral tradition far too moderate.
In other words, even if the neofascist tradition is clearly on the FdI side, we should not conclude that FdI is really more extremist than the League.
It is well worth it.
In reality, since 2018, whether with the League or with the FdI, it has been the weakening of Berlusconi's moderate leadership and the lack of a replacement in the centre-right, linked to the European People's Party (EPP), which must be note.
This weakening is largely the responsibility of the latter who never wanted to promote the passage of FI to another leader, but also to a demand for radicalism on the part of the electorate of the right.
In fact, the Italian case illustrates a European trend towards the weakening of the moderate right linked to the EPP and the Christian-Democratic filiation in favor of new, more radical right,
Does Giorgia Meloni's score mean the political death of Salvini?
Not death, but the end of illusions.
In fact, these 2022 municipal elections confirm what the polls have been saying for at least a year: the first party on the right is that of Giorgia Meloni with around 20% of the voting intentions, and the second party is now that of Matteo Salvini .
It's hard to swallow for the latter.
As party scores are now extremely tied to the appeal of their respective leaders, this means that Matteo Salvini has largely lost the ability to attract right-wing voters.
This loss can be explained by the excesses of the character, by his palinodies around the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and by his position of internal opposition to the Draghi government which ended up tiring the electorate.
As for the immediate fate of the Draghi government, it seems to me that the League is now torn between the high profile character of its elected officials and the frustrated ambitions of Matteo Salvini.
Christophe Bouillaud
The Fratelli d'Italia (FdI) party was the only party to refuse to join Mario Draghi's government of national unity. A year before the next legislative elections, will this score weaken the government, pushing the other parties, in particular the League and the M5S, to assert their independence?
We are indeed one year away from the normal term of the legislature.
The stakes are all the greater since a constitutional reform, wanted by the M5S among others, has halved the size of the Parliament to be elected in 2023. Suffice to say that many, many, deputies and senators will see their political career come to an abrupt end next year.
Alliances are even more crucial than before to win the rare seats of deputies and senators.
As a result, the situation of FdI is paradoxical.
It is the only major party that has not been in government since 2018. At the same time, it cannot win alone, it needs FI and the League, but the latter have governed, i.e. since 2018 for the League (with the M5S), or since 2021 for FI (with the M5S and the PD), and they probably do not want to lose everything to the benefit of FdI which would appear to be the big winner of this legislature.
As for the immediate fate of the Draghi government, it seems to me that the League is now torn between the high profile character of its elected officials and the frustrated ambitions of Matteo Salvini.
The latter would have every interest in leaving the Draghi government, but his party, closely linked to economic circles in the north of the country, does not at all want to follow him on this adventurist line.
Economic circles need the European manna which will only arrive if Draghi stays in business.
On the side of the M5S, it has been dividing in recent days between a Philo-Russian wing of useful idiots around Giuseppe Conte and Beppe Grillo and a Euro-Atlanticist wing around the current Minister of Foreign Affairs, Luigi di Maio.
This explosion corresponds to the two souls of this movement: on the one hand, there is the questioning of all the evidence of the moment, anti-establishment as hell, which sometimes borders on conspiracy, largely exploited in this case by Russia ;
on the other hand, there is the tendency to accept, out of reverence for established knowledge, the consensus in place on the various public policies.
The M5S definitely shows that it has no ideological structuring, no serious grid for understanding reality.
However,
Italy is the Western European country which has seen practically no increase in its standard of living since the year 2000. The stories of the red judges… In a context of inflation and the threat to supply energy of Italy, it is not worth the trip to the polling station.
Christophe Bouillaud
To end this interview, the five referendums on justice, mainly supported by Matteo Salvini's Northern League, on the sidelines of the first round of municipal elections, only mobilized 20% of voters (while a minimum of 50% of participation was necessary to validate his result). How to explain this disinterest of the Italians?
This is a phenomenon that has been observed for two decades in referenda of this type.
Italian voters have understood that the easiest way to block an abrogative referendum that they do not like is still not to vote.
Indeed, a quorum of 50% participation is required for a referendum of this type to be valid.
Therefore, for an abrogative referendum to pass, you really need a solid majority of Italians to support it.
This was not the case here.
These referendums on justice continued the eternal fight of the Italian right against the judges.
The latter began in December 1994 when Silvio Berlusconi, then President of the Council, received a notice of indictment.
The battle has never stopped since.
Matteo Salvini saw fit to relaunch the battle,
because he himself is judged for his action as Minister of the Interior and his own party is not without having some beautiful corpses in its old cupboards.
However, this desire to humiliate the judges appeared completely incidental to the Italians.
It is true that the latter currently have many other worries than the supposed misdeeds of red judges always ready to render political justice.
Let's not forget that Italy is the Western European country which has seen practically no increase in its standard of living since the year 2000. As a result, the stories of red judges... In a context of inflation and threat to Italy's energy supply, it is not worth the trip to the polling station.
Interior and its own party is not without having some beautiful corpses in its old cupboards.
However, this desire to humiliate the judges appeared completely incidental to the Italians.
It is true that the latter currently have many other worries than the supposed misdeeds of red judges always ready to render political justice.
Let's not forget that Italy is the Western European country which has seen practically no increase in its standard of living since the year 2000. As a result, the stories of red judges... In a context of inflation and threat to Italy's energy supply, it is not worth the trip to the polling station.
Interior and its own party is not without having some beautiful corpses in its old cupboards.
However, this desire to humiliate the judges appeared completely incidental to the Italians.
It is true that the latter currently have many other concerns than the supposed misdeeds of red judges always ready to render political justice.
Let's not forget that Italy is the Western European country which has seen practically no increase in its standard of living since the year 2000. As a result, the stories of red judges... In a context of inflation and threat to Italy's energy supply, it is not worth the trip to the polling station.
humiliating the judges appeared completely incidental to the Italians.
It is true that the latter currently have many other concerns than the supposed misdeeds of red judges always ready to render political justice.
Let's not forget that Italy is the Western European country which has seen practically no increase in its standard of living since the year 2000. As a result, the stories of red judges... In a context of inflation and threat to Italy's energy supply, it is not worth the trip to the polling station.
humiliating the judges seemed completely incidental to the Italians.
It is true that the latter currently have many other concerns than the supposed misdeeds of red judges always ready to render political justice.
Let's not forget that Italy is the Western European country which has seen practically no increase in its standard of living since the year 2000. As a result, the stories of red judges... In a context of inflation and threat to Italy's energy supply, it is not worth the trip to the polling station.
SEE ALSO
- At the start of his trial, Matteo Salvini denounces a "political trial organized by the left"