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Covid-19: will the 7th wave ruin the summer?


DECRYPTION – While scientists are calling for the return of the mask in the face of the renewed epidemic, the executive is preparing a bill to introduce the health pass at the borders.

Thunderbolt in the summer sky: Monday, June 27 in the morning, emergency doctor Patrick Pelloux reminded all holidaymakers of the epidemic reality on the BFMTV set.

There is this importance of putting the mask back on

”, affirmed the doctor, only a month after his abandonment in transport, the last trace of barrier measures in the daily life of the French.

The president of the Association of Hospital Emergency Physicians is formal: the return of the mask is urgent, "

in certain places at risk

" and in transport, he believes, regretting that the executive has not yet announced anything in matter.

Read alsoCovid-19: faced with the increase in cases, would it be useful to reinstate the mask in transport?

In fact, France is facing an undeniable epidemic resurgence.

In question, new cousins ​​of Omicron, the BA.5 (41% of screenings) and BA.4 (6%), arrived from Portugal and South Africa and are now dominant.

Their characteristic?

A great contagiousness.

BA.4 is three times more contagious than BA.2, itself three times more than Alpha.

Two meters away, you can be contaminated

, ”explains Gilles Pialoux, head of the infectious diseases department at Tenon hospital.

If the hospitalization rates are not worrying, these variants also have a “


” duration of symptoms , indicates Public Health France in its last epidemiological point, raising fears of more absenteeism among summer workers.

When should we expect the epidemic peak?

Some epidemiologists claim that the 7th wave has already arrived, others that it is yet to come.

Difficult to make predictions

”, explains Catherine Hill, stressing that the self-tests having multiplied, the positive cases are less and less numerous to be declared and counted.

With 40 daily deaths from Covid-19, France remains in the low average, but new hospitalizations must be closely monitored.

We are almost at the peak of August 2021 in terms of hospital admissions

, notes the epidemiologist.

If Portugal reached the peak of the wave in two months, we can consider it in France at the end of July, even if the previous waves have shown us that

Several factors will play on the course of the 7th wave.

The first unknown is that of school holidays,

” explains Mircea Sofonea, lecturer in epidemiology and evolution of infectious diseases at the University of Montpellier.

This context could have a positive impact, avoiding mixing in schools, as well as negative, with travel between regions and crowds on beaches.

The other factor will be the spontaneous change in behavior of the population

”, points out the epidemiologist.

Finally, everything will depend on the “

measures taken by the executive


No summer restrictions (yet)

On this point, the government has not yet announced anything.

In France, the state of health emergency must end at the end of July, and it will be up to the executive to decide on its postponement.

Until then, the Minister of Health Brigitte Bourguignon called on the French on Monday to "


", and, without obligation, asked to put the mask back on.

Will this be reinstated in transport?

Many epidemiologists recommend it, like Alain Fisher: "

In public transport, I think it's probably reasonable

", commented on Tuesday on France 2 the president of the Council for the orientation of the vaccine strategy.

Certainly for the frail, and probably for the whole population


The Minister of Culture Rima Abdul Malak also wanted to be reassuring about the festive gatherings, during a trip to Hellfest.


This summer's festivals will, if all goes well, go well,

" she said.

No gauges or cancellations planned.

For her part, the government spokeswoman, Olivia Grégoire, simply affirmed that the government "

does not forbid (does) nothing

" .

Read the fileConcerts, festivals: our cultural agenda for summer 2022

Will there be border restrictions?

As the French rushed to distant destinations after two years of the pandemic, what about travel restrictions?

On this subject, a draft government bill leaked at the end of June, the authenticity of which was confirmed to AFP.

This project includes a "

monitoring and health security system

" applicable at the borders: compulsory vaccination pass from the age of 12 for any trip "

to or from French territory, Corsica or one of the communities

" from overseas. -sea.

And this until March 2023.

According to the Ministry of Health, the bill has already been “

transmitted to the Council of State in recent days

” and “

will be the subject of discussions, before its presentation in the Council of Ministers, with the political forces , as we have always done

,” said Brigitte Bourguignon’s cabinet.

A 4th dose of vaccine for the holidays?

Several epidemiologists already recommend the 4th dose of vaccine, at least for the most fragile.

Starting with Jean-François Delfraissy.

For the President of the Scientific Council, "

a fourth dose now

" is highly recommended for people at risk and all those over 60.

We must "

not wait for the month of September

", he assured on June 18 on Europe 1. Then, "

in the fall

", "

we will probably go to a fourth dose for the whole population


Read alsoCovid-19: are we witnessing the start of a new epidemic wave?

For his part, Gilles Pialoux is worried not about an epidemic carnage but about the hospital's ability to deal with it.

The hospital is no longer in the same state as on the eve of the first wave.

At the AP-HP alone

(Paris public hospital, editor's note)

, absences are twice as high as two years ago, and bed closures twice as long

, ”recalls the doctor.

At the Tenon hospital, where he works, the head of the infectious diseases department feels the absenteeism due to Covid-19.


With us, the missing cases are such that it is necessary to return to the Omicron wave of January 2022, or the very first Alpha wave to find such a level


Thus, the professor invites the diligent practice of barrier gestures, if the French want to avoid “

spending their week of vacation with the flu in their room


Especially since the immunity conferred by the January wave will not work on the new summer variants.

Ditto for the vaccine, which neutralizes the current variants seven times less.


It's a different disease

", warns Gilles Pialoux, calling on the authorities to set an example by wearing a mask during gatherings.

Source: lefigaro

All news articles on 2022-06-29

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