Affected by the high-altitude anticyclone, the past few days in southern China have been generally sunny with mild winds, and the weather has continued to be extremely hot.
However, as the high-altitude anticyclone weakens and a broad area of low pressure in the central South China Sea is expected to gradually develop into a tropical cyclone in the middle of this week, the weather along the South China coast will gradually deteriorate later this week, with stronger winds, squally showers and thunderstorms.
The biggest variable depends on how the high-altitude westerly trough will weaken the high-altitude anticyclone and make it retreat eastward (Figure 1).
(The original text is taken from the Observatory's website, with the title, introduction and text, edited and revised by Hong Kong 01)
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If the low pressure system develops into a tropical cyclone, the path probability prediction map in Figure 2 shows that although there is a greater chance of taking a more westward path, the path remains uncertain.
Coinciding with the path probability forecast, the latest forecasts of the European model, the British model, and the Japanese model all show that the low-pressure system will generally move to the west of Guangdong to Hainan Island after its formation.
However, the US model predicts that the low pressure system will move northwards along the eastern coast of Guangdong.
As for the intensity, major computer forecasting models have quite different predictions on the intensity of the low-pressure system. Among them, the forecast strength of the Japanese model is weak (it seems to maintain the shape of a monsoon low), and the American model is significantly stronger (Figure 3).
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Due to uncertainties in the formation, intensity and track of tropical cyclones, the actual wind changes in Hong Kong will still be variable.
In general, it is expected that the weather in the northern part of the South China Sea and the coastal areas of southern China will gradually deteriorate later this week due to the influence of its circulation and outer rainbands.
Pay special attention to the strong winds and squally showers in Hong Kong around 1 July.
The Observatory will closely monitor the changes of the low pressure system in the coming days, and the public should pay attention to the latest weather information and nine-day weather forecast of the Observatory when planning the "7.1" long holiday activities.
As the low-pressure system recedes, affected by the active southerly air flow, the weather along the coast of Guangdong is expected to remain unstable next week.
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Original text: The wind season begins, the weather turns bad Author: Hong Kong Observatory
